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Adapting a Prediction Rule for Metabolic Syndrome Risk Assessment Suitable for Developing Countries.

ABSTRACT: Background: Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a cluster of cardiometabolic disturbances that increases the risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM). The early identification of high-risk individuals is the key for halting these conditions. The world is facing a growing epidemic MetS although the magnitude in Egypt is unknown. Objectives: To describe MetS and its determinants among apparently healthy individuals residing in urban and rural communities in Egypt and to establish a model for MetS prediction. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted with 270 adults from rural and urban districts in Alexandria, Egypt. Participants were clinically evaluated and interviewed for sociodemographic and lifestyle factors and dietary habits. MetS was defined according to the harmonized criteria set by the AHA/NHLBI. The risk of ischemic heart diseases (IHDs), DM and fatty liver were assessed using validated risk prediction charts. A multiple risk model for predicting MetS was developed, and its performance was compared. Results: In total, 57.8% of the study population met the criteria for MetS and were at high risk for developing IHD, DM, and fatty liver. Silent CVD risk factors were identified in 20.4% of the participants. In our proposed multivariate logistic regression model, the predictors of MetS were obesity [OR (95% CI) = 16.3 (6.03-44.0)], morbid obesity [OR (95% CI) = 21.7 (5.3-88.0)], not working [OR (95% CI) = 2.05 (1.1-3.8)], and having a family history of chronic diseases [OR (95% CI) = 4.38 (2.23-8.61)]. Consumption of caffeine once per week protected against MetS by 27.8-fold. The derived prediction rule was accurate in predicting MetS, fatty liver, high risk of DM, and, to a lesser extent, a 10-year lifetime risk of IHD. Conclusion: Central obesity and sedentary lifestyles are accountable for the rising rates of MetS in our society. Interventions are needed to minimize the potential predisposition of the Egyptian population to cardiometabolic diseases.

SUBMITTER: Abd El-Wahab EW

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6822183 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jan-Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Adapting a Prediction Rule for Metabolic Syndrome Risk Assessment Suitable for Developing Countries.

Abd El-Wahab Ekram W EW Shatat Hanan Z HZ Charl Fahmy F

Journal of primary care & community health 20190101

<b>Background:</b> Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a cluster of cardiometabolic disturbances that increases the risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM). The early identification of high-risk individuals is the key for halting these conditions. The world is facing a growing epidemic MetS although the magnitude in Egypt is unknown. <b>Objectives:</b> To describe MetS and its determinants among apparently healthy individuals residing in urban and rural communities in Eg ...[more]

PMID: 31662026

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Project description:Stunting affects one-third of children under 5 y old in developing countries, and 14% of childhood deaths are attributable to it. A large number of risk factors for stunting have been identified in epidemiological studies. However, the relative contribution of these risk factors to stunting has not been examined across countries. We estimated the number of stunting cases among children aged 24-35 mo (i.e., at the end of the 1,000 days' period of vulnerability) that are attributable to 18 risk factors in 137 developing countries.We classified risk factors into five clusters: maternal nutrition and infection, teenage motherhood and short birth intervals, fetal growth restriction (FGR) and preterm birth, child nutrition and infection, and environmental factors. We combined published estimates and individual-level data from population-based surveys to derive risk factor prevalence in each country in 2010 and identified the most recent meta-analysis or conducted de novo reviews to derive effect sizes. We estimated the prevalence of stunting and the number of stunting cases that were attributable to each risk factor and cluster of risk factors by country and region. The leading risk worldwide was FGR, defined as being term and small for gestational age, and 10.8 million cases (95% CI 9.1 million-12.6 million) of stunting (out of 44.1 million) were attributable to it, followed by unimproved sanitation, with 7.2 million (95% CI 6.3 million-8.2 million), and diarrhea with 5.8 million (95% CI 2.4 million-9.2 million). FGR and preterm birth was the leading risk factor cluster in all regions. Environmental risks had the second largest estimated impact on stunting globally and in the South Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and East Asia and Pacific regions, whereas child nutrition and infection was the second leading cluster of risk factors in other regions. Although extensive, our analysis is limited to risk factors for which effect sizes and country-level exposure data were available. The global nature of the study required approximations (e.g., using exposures estimated among women of reproductive age as a proxy for maternal exposures, or estimating the impact of risk factors on stunting through a mediator rather than directly on stunting). Finally, as is standard in global risk factor analyses, we used the effect size of risk factors on stunting from meta-analyses of epidemiological studies and assumed that proportional effects were fairly similar across countries.FGR and unimproved sanitation are the leading risk factors for stunting in developing countries. Reducing the burden of stunting requires a paradigm shift from interventions focusing solely on children and infants to those that reach mothers and families and improve their living environment and nutrition.

Project description:BackgroundStudies document e-health as having potential to improve quality of healthcare services, resulting in both developed and developing countries demonstrating continued interest in e-health uptake and use. e-Health implementations are not always successful as high failure rates have been reported in both developed and developing countries. These failures are often a result of lack of e-health readiness. e-Health readiness has been defined as the preparedness of healthcare institutions or communities for the anticipated change brought by programs related to information and communication technologies. As such it is critical to conduct an e-health readiness assessment prior to implementation of e-health innovations so as to reduce chances of project failure. Noting the absence of an adequate e-health readiness assessment framework (eHRAF) suitable for use in developing countries, the authors conceptualised, designed, and created a developing country specific eHRAF to aid in e-health policy planning. The aim of this study was to validate the developed eHRAF and to determine if it required further refinement before empirical testing.MethodsPublished options for a framework validation process were adopted, and fifteen globally located e-health experts engaged. Botswana experts were engaged using saturation sampling, while international experts were purposively selected. Responses were collated in an Excel spreadsheet, and NVivo 11 software used to aid thematic analysis of the open ended questions.ResultsAnalysis of responses showed overall support for the content and format of the proposed eHRAF. Equivocal responses to some open ended questions were recorded, most of which suggested modifications to terms within the framework. One expert from the developed world had alternate views.ConclusionsThe proposed eHRAF provides guidance for e-health policy development and planning by identifying, in an evidence based manner, the major areas to be considered when preparing for an e-health readiness assessment in the context of developing countries.

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Adapting a Prediction Rule for Metabolic Syndrome Risk Assessment Suitable for Developing Countries.

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Adapting a Prediction Rule for Metabolic Syndrome Risk Assessment Suitable for Developing Countries.

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