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Prediction of Early Recurrence of Solitary Hepatocellular Carcinoma after Orthotopic Liver Transplantation.

ABSTRACT: Hepatocellular carcinomas(HCC) consisted of heterogeneous subtypes with different recurrence probabilities after liver transplantation(LT). Our study aimed to develop an improved model for predicting the recurrence of solitary HCC after LT. In this retrospective study, 151 solitary HCC patients who received orthotopic LT over a period of 10 consecutive years were included. All recipients received graft from deceased donors. The first eligible 50 patients were used as validation cohort and others were utilized to construct the model. A two-tailed P?

SUBMITTER: Feng J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6825189 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Prediction of Early Recurrence of Solitary Hepatocellular Carcinoma after Orthotopic Liver Transplantation.

Feng Jiliang J Zhu Ruidong R Feng Dezhao D Yu Lu L Zhao Dawei D Wu Jushan J Yuan Chunwang C Chen Junmei J Zhang Yan Y Zheng Xiu X

Scientific reports 20191101 1

Hepatocellular carcinomas(HCC) consisted of heterogeneous subtypes with different recurrence probabilities after liver transplantation(LT). Our study aimed to develop an improved model for predicting the recurrence of solitary HCC after LT. In this retrospective study, 151 solitary HCC patients who received orthotopic LT over a period of 10 consecutive years were included. All recipients received graft from deceased donors. The first eligible 50 patients were used as validation cohort and others ...[more]

PMID: 31676847

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Project description:BackgroundAn individual prognostic model that includes inflammation caused by the delayed recovery of liver function after surgery for the early recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) following liver transplantation (LT) has not been well determined. Our aim was to develop a nomogram model for predicting individual survival and early recurrence following LT for patients.MethodsRetrospective data, including clinical pathology and follow-up data, on HCC patients were collected between October 2016 and October 2019 at Huashan Hospital Affiliated to Fudan University. A nomogram estimating recurrence post-transplantation was constructed using multivariate Cox regression analysis.ResultsA total of 210 patients were included in the present study. The multivariate estimators of recurrence consisted of age, maximum tumor diameter, tumor thrombus, microvascular invasion (MVI), alanine aminotransferase and alpha-fetoprotein on postoperative day 7. Nomogram of recurrence-free survival was developed. The calibration and discrimination of the novel model were assessed with the calibration curves and concordance index (C-index). Its reliability and advantages were evaluated by comparing it with the conventional American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) 8th edition staging system using integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) and net reclassification improvement (NRI). In comparison to the AJCC 8th edition staging system, the C-index (development set: 0.796 vs. 0.643, validation set: 0.741 vs. 0.563), the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the validation set (1-year AUC: 0.732 vs. 0.586, 2-year AUC: 0.705 vs. 0.504), the development set (1-year AUC: 0.799 vs. 0.551, 2-year AUC: 0.801 vs. 0.512), and this model's calibration plots all showed improved performance. In addition, NRI and IDI verified that the nomogram is an accurate prognostic tool. Subsequently, a web calculator was generated to assess the risk of tumor recurrence post-LT.ConclusionsThe nomogram, based on clinical and pathological factors, showed good accuracy in estimating prognostic recurrence and can be used to guide individual patient follow-up and treatment.

Dataset Information

Prediction of Early Recurrence of Solitary Hepatocellular Carcinoma after Orthotopic Liver Transplantation.

Publications

Prediction of Early Recurrence of Solitary Hepatocellular Carcinoma after Orthotopic Liver Transplantation.

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