Dataset Information

Development of a predictive nomogram for early recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients undergoing liver transplantation.

ABSTRACT:

Background

An individual prognostic model that includes inflammation caused by the delayed recovery of liver function after surgery for the early recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) following liver transplantation (LT) has not been well determined. Our aim was to develop a nomogram model for predicting individual survival and early recurrence following LT for patients.

Methods

Retrospective data, including clinical pathology and follow-up data, on HCC patients were collected between October 2016 and October 2019 at Huashan Hospital Affiliated to Fudan University. A nomogram estimating recurrence post-transplantation was constructed using multivariate Cox regression analysis.

Results

A total of 210 patients were included in the present study. The multivariate estimators of recurrence consisted of age, maximum tumor diameter, tumor thrombus, microvascular invasion (MVI), alanine aminotransferase and alpha-fetoprotein on postoperative day 7. Nomogram of recurrence-free survival was developed. The calibration and discrimination of the novel model were assessed with the calibration curves and concordance index (C-index). Its reliability and advantages were evaluated by comparing it with the conventional American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) 8th edition staging system using integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) and net reclassification improvement (NRI). In comparison to the AJCC 8th edition staging system, the C-index (development set: 0.796 vs. 0.643, validation set: 0.741 vs. 0.563), the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the validation set (1-year AUC: 0.732 vs. 0.586, 2-year AUC: 0.705 vs. 0.504), the development set (1-year AUC: 0.799 vs. 0.551, 2-year AUC: 0.801 vs. 0.512), and this model's calibration plots all showed improved performance. In addition, NRI and IDI verified that the nomogram is an accurate prognostic tool. Subsequently, a web calculator was generated to assess the risk of tumor recurrence post-LT.

Conclusions

The nomogram, based on clinical and pathological factors, showed good accuracy in estimating prognostic recurrence and can be used to guide individual patient follow-up and treatment.

SUBMITTER: Ma E

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8039665 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Similar Datasets

Project description:Background and aims: Liver transplantation (LT) is the most radical treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with high rates of long-term survival, but tumor recurrence after LT is an unresolved problem. The aim of our study was to identify predictive markers for tumor recurrence after liver transplantation. Methods: In a retrospective single-center study, we included all patients with LT for HCC in our institution (01/2007-12/2012). Beside demographic data, we analyzed course, bridging therapies, Serum-AFP, time point of tumor recurrence, as well as the correlation of imaging and histopathology of our recipients. Additionally, we performed a microarray analysis to identify different miRNA profiles of patients with and without HCC recurrence after LT. Single assay stem-loop real-time PCR (Q-RT-PCR) was used for validation of the results. Results: During the study period, we performed 92 LT in patients with HCC (22 women, 70 men). Twenty-two (23.9%) patients developed a recurrent HCC after LT. Our subgroup with tumor recurrence after LT, presented with a mean disease-free survival of 10 months (3-55 months) and an overall survival of 25.5 months (4-77 months). Milan criteria, AFP levels and pathologic grading had an influence on the tumor recurrence. Performing miRNA analysis, we could identify significant upregulation of 8 miRNAs and downregulation of another 5 miRNAs in patients with tumor recurrence. Consecutively, array data were successfully validated using Q-RT-PCR. Multivariate Cox regression, ROC analysis and Kaplan-Meier showed that a score consisting of two miRNAs and Milan criteria are an independent predictor for tumor recurrence-free survival. Conclusions: Despite careful selection of patients, an early recurrence of HCC after LT cannot be avoided completely. Reliable prognostic markers related to tumor biology are still missing. Analysis and validation of specific miRNAs combined with radiological parameters might lead to a promising strategy for the prediction of tumor recurrence, but prospective studies have to follow. 8 macrodissected hepatocellular carcinoma (recurrent HCC) and 10 macrodissected hepatocellular carcinoma (non-recurrent HCC).