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Risk Factors for 1-Year Graft Loss After Kidney Transplantation: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES:With expansion of the pool of kidney grafts, through the use of higher-risk donors, and increased attention to donor management strategies, the 1-year graft survival rate is subject to change. It is, therefore, useful to elucidate 1-year graft survival rates by dissecting the characteristics of the low-risk and high-risk kidney transplant cases. The objective of our study was to evaluate factors purported to influence the risk of 1-year graft loss in kidney transplant recipients. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS:We searched bibliographic databases from 2000 to 2017 and included observational studies that measured the association between donor, recipient, the transplant operation, or early postoperative complications, and 1-year death-censored graft loss. RESULTS:We identified 35 eligible primary studies, with 20 risk factors amenable to meta-analysis. Six factors were associated with graft loss, with moderate to high degree of certainty: donor age (hazard ratio [HR], 1.11 per 10-year increase; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.04 to 1.18), extended criteria donors (HR, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.28 to 1.42), deceased donors (HR, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.32 to 1.82), number of HLA mismatches (HR, 1.08 per one mismatch increase; 95% CI, 1.07 to 1.09), recipient age (HR, 1.17 per 10-year increase; 95% CI, 1.09 to 1.25), and delayed graft function (HR, 1.89; 95% CI, 1.46 to 2.47) as risk factors for 1-year graft loss. Pooled analyses also excluded, with a high degree of certainty, any associations of cold ischemia time, recipient race, pretransplant body mass index, diabetes, and hypertension with 1-year graft loss. CONCLUSIONS:Recipient age, donor age, standard versus extended criteria donor, living versus deceased donor, HLA mismatch, and delayed graft function all predicted 1-year graft survival. The effect of each risk factor is small.

SUBMITTER: Foroutan F

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6832056 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Risk Factors for 1-Year Graft Loss After Kidney Transplantation: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Foroutan Farid F Friesen Erik Loewen EL Clark Kathryn Elizabeth KE Motaghi Shahrzad S Zyla Roman R Lee Yung Y Kamran Rakhshan R Ali Emir E De Snoo Mitch M Orchanian-Cheff Ani A Ribic Christine C Treleaven Darin J DJ Guyatt Gordon G Meade Maureen O MO

Clinical journal of the American Society of Nephrology : CJASN 20190920 11

<h4>Background and objectives</h4>With expansion of the pool of kidney grafts, through the use of higher-risk donors, and increased attention to donor management strategies, the 1-year graft survival rate is subject to change. It is, therefore, useful to elucidate 1-year graft survival rates by dissecting the characteristics of the low-risk and high-risk kidney transplant cases. The objective of our study was to evaluate factors purported to influence the risk of 1-year graft loss in kidney tran ...[more]

PMID: 31540931

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Project description:IntroductionKidney transplantation is the best therapeutical option for CKD patients. Graft loss risk factors are usually estimated with the cox method. Competing risk analysis could be useful to determine the impact of different events affecting graft survival, the occurrence of an outcome of interest can be precluded by another. We aimed to determine the risk factors for graft loss in the presence of mortality as a competing event.MethodsA retrospective cohort of 1454 kidney transplant recipients who were transplanted between July 1, 2008, to May 31, 2019, in Colombiana de Trasplantes, were analyzed to determine risk factors of graft loss and mortality at 5 years post-transplantation. Kidney and patient survival probabilities were estimated by the competing risk analysis. The Fine and Gray method was used to fit a multivariable model for each outcome. Three variable selection methods were compared, and the bootstrapping technique was used for internal validation as split method for resample. The performance of the final model was assessed calculating the prediction error, brier score, c-index and calibration plot.ResultsGraft loss occurred in 169 patients (11.6%) and death in 137 (9.4%). Cumulative incidence for graft loss and death was 15.8% and 13.8% respectively. In a multivariable analysis, we found that BKV nephropathy, serum creatinine and increased number of renal biopsies were significant risk factors for graft loss. On the other hand, recipient age, acute cellular rejection, CMV disease were risk factors for death, and recipients with living donor had better survival compared to deceased-donor transplant and coronary stent. The c-index were 0.6 and 0.72 for graft loss and death model respectively.ConclusionWe developed two prediction models for graft loss and death 5 years post-transplantation by a unique transplant program in Colombia. Using a competing risk multivariable analysis, we were able to identify 3 significant risk factors for graft loss and 5 significant risk factors for death. This contributes to have a better understanding of risk factors for graft loss in a Latin-American population. The predictive performance of the models was mild.

Dataset Information

Risk Factors for 1-Year Graft Loss After Kidney Transplantation: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Publications

Risk Factors for 1-Year Graft Loss After Kidney Transplantation: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

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