Dataset Information

Village-scale persistence and elimination of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis.

ABSTRACT: Gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) is one of several neglected tropical diseases that is targeted for elimination by the World Health Organization. Recent years have seen a substantial decline in the number of globally reported cases, largely driven by an intensive process of screening and treatment. However, this infection is highly focal, continuing to persist at low prevalence even in small populations. Regional elimination, and ultimately global eradication, rests on understanding the dynamics and persistence of this infection at the local population scale. Here we develop a stochastic model of gHAT dynamics, which is underpinned by screening and reporting data from one of the highest gHAT incidence regions, Kwilu Province, in the Democratic Republic of Congo. We use this model to explore the persistence of gHAT in villages of different population sizes and subject to different patterns of screening. Our models demonstrate that infection is expected to persist for long periods even in relatively small isolated populations. We further use the model to assess the risk of recrudescence following local elimination and consider how failing to detect cases during active screening events informs the probability of elimination. These quantitative results provide insights for public health policy in the region, particularly highlighting the difficulties in achieving and measuring the 2030 elimination goal.

SUBMITTER: Davis CN

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6837580 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Village-scale persistence and elimination of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis.

Davis Christopher N CN Rock Kat S KS Mwamba Miaka Erick E Keeling Matt J MJ

PLoS neglected tropical diseases 20191028 10

Gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) is one of several neglected tropical diseases that is targeted for elimination by the World Health Organization. Recent years have seen a substantial decline in the number of globally reported cases, largely driven by an intensive process of screening and treatment. However, this infection is highly focal, continuing to persist at low prevalence even in small populations. Regional elimination, and ultimately global eradication, rests on understandin ...[more]

PMID: 31658269

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Project description:IntroductionThe incidence of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) in Uganda has been declining, from 198 cases in 2008, to only 20 in 2012. Interruption of transmission of the disease by early diagnosis and treatment is core to the control and eventual elimination of gHAT. Until recently, the format of available screening tests had restricted screening and diagnosis to central health facilities (passive screening). We describe a novel strategy that is contributing to elimination of gHAT in Uganda through expansion of passive screening to the entire population at risk.Methodology / principal findingsIn this strategy, patients who are clinically suspected of having gHAT at primary health facilities are screened using a rapid diagnostic test (RDT), followed by parasitological confirmation at strategically located microscopy centres. For patients who are positive with the RDT and negative by microscopy, blood samples undergo further testing using loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP), a molecular test that detects parasite DNA. LAMP positive patients are considered strong suspects, and are re-evaluated by microscopy. Location and upgrading of facilities to perform microscopy and LAMP was informed by results of georeferencing and characterization of all public healthcare facilities in the 7 gHAT endemic districts in Uganda. Three facilities were upgraded to perform RDTs, microscopy and LAMP, 9 to perform RDTs and microscopy, and 200 to screen patients with RDTs. This reduced the distance that a sick person must travel to be screened for gHAT to a median distance of 2.5km compared to 23km previously. In this strategy, 9 gHAT cases were diagnosed in 2014, and 4 in 2015.ConclusionsThis enhanced passive screening strategy for gHAT has enabled full coverage of the population at risk, and is being replicated in other gHAT endemic countries. The improvement in case detection is making elimination of the disease in Uganda an imminent possibility.

Project description:BACKGROUND: Algorithms to diagnose gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (HAT, sleeping sickness) are often complex due to the unsatisfactory sensitivity and/or specificity of available tests, and typically include a screening (serological), confirmation (parasitological) and staging component. There is insufficient evidence on the relative accuracy of these algorithms. This paper presents estimates of the accuracy of five algorithms used by past Médecins Sans Frontières programmes in the Republic of Congo, Southern Sudan and Uganda. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The sequence of tests in each algorithm was programmed into a probabilistic model, informed by distributions of the sensitivity, specificity and staging accuracy of each test, constructed based on a literature review. The accuracy of algorithms was estimated in a baseline scenario and in a worst-case scenario introducing various near worst-case assumptions. In the baseline scenario, sensitivity was estimated as 85-90% in all but one algorithm, with specificity above 99.9% except for the Republic of Congo, where CATT serology was used as independent confirmation test: here, positive predictive value (PPV) was estimated at <50% in realistic active screening prevalence scenarios. Furthermore, most algorithms misclassified about one third of true stage 1 cases as stage 2, and about 10% of true stage 2 cases as stage 1. In the worst-case scenario, sensitivity was 75-90% and PPV no more than 75% at 1% prevalence, with about half of stage 1 cases misclassified as stage 2. CONCLUSIONS: Published evidence on the accuracy of widely used tests is scanty. Algorithms should carefully weigh the use of serology alone for confirmation, and could enhance sensitivity through serological suspect follow-up and repeat parasitology. Better evidence on the frequency of low-parasitaemia infections is needed. Simulation studies should guide the tailoring of algorithms to specific scenarios of HAT prevalence and availability of control tools.

Project description:Human African trypanosomiasis (HAT), transmitted by tsetse flies, has historically infected hundreds of thousands of individuals annually in sub-Saharan Africa. Over the last decade, concerted control efforts have reduced reported cases to below 10,000 annually, bringing complete elimination within reach. A potential technology to eliminate HAT involves rendering the flies resistant to trypanosome infection. This approach can be achieved through the introduction of transgenic Sodalis symbiotic bacteria that have been modified to produce a trypanocide, and propagated via Wolbachia symbionts, which confer a reproductive advantage to the paratransgenic tsetse. However, the population dynamics of these symbionts within tsetse flies have not yet been evaluated. Specifically, the key factors that determine the effectiveness of paratransgenesis have yet to be quantified. To identify the impact of these determinants on T.b. gambiense and T.b. rhodesiense transmission, we developed a mathematical model of trypanosome transmission that incorporates tsetse and symbiont population dynamics. We found that fecundity and mortality penalties associated with Wolbachia or recombinant Sodalis colonization, probabilities of vertical transmission, and tsetse migration rates are fundamental to the feasibility of HAT elimination. For example, we determined that HAT elimination could be sustained over 25 years when Wolbachia colonization minimally impacted fecundity or mortality, and when the probability of recombinant Sodalis vertical transmission exceeded 99.9%. We also found that for a narrow range of recombinant Sodalis vertical transmission probability (99.9-90.6% for T.b. gambiense and 99.9-85.8% for T.b. rhodesiense), cumulative HAT incidence was reduced between 30% and 1% for T.b. gambiense and between 21% and 3% for T.b. rhodesiense, although elimination was not predicted. Our findings indicate that fitness and mortality penalties associated with paratransgenic symbionts, as well as tsetse migration rates, are instrumental to HAT elimination, and should be a key focus in the development of paratransgenic symbionts.

Dataset Information

Village-scale persistence and elimination of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis.

Publications

Village-scale persistence and elimination of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis.

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