Modelling to Quantify the Likelihood that Local Elimination of Transmission has Occurred Using Routine Gambiense Human African Trypanosomiasis Surveillance Data.
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ABSTRACT: Background
The gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) elimination programme in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) routinely collects case data through passive surveillance and active screening, with several regions reporting no cases for several years, despite being endemic in the early 2000s.Methods
We use mathematical models fitted to longitudinal data to estimate the probability that selected administrative regions have already achieved elimination of transmission (EOT) of gHAT. We examine the impact of active screening coverage on the certainty of model estimates for transmission and therefore the role of screening in the measurement of EOT.Results
In 3 example health zones of Sud-Ubangi province, we find there is a moderate (>40%) probability that EOT has been achieved by 2018, based on 2000-2016 data. Budjala and Mbaya reported zero cases during 2017-18, and this further increases our respective estimates to 99.9% and 99.6% (model S) and to 87.3% and 92.1% (model W). Bominenge had recent case reporting, however, that if zero cases were found in 2021, it would substantially raise our certainty that EOT has been met there (99.0% for model S and 88.5% for model W); this could be higher with 50% coverage screening that year (99.1% for model S and 94.0% for model W).Conclusions
We demonstrate how routine surveillance data coupled with mechanistic modeling can estimate the likelihood that EOT has already been achieved. Such quantitative assessment will become increasingly important for measuring local achievement of EOT as 2030 approaches.
SUBMITTER: Davis CN
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8201550 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Purpose of reviewGambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT), a disease that has killed hundreds of thousands as recently as the 1990s, could be on the verge of elimination or even eradication. This review describes recent developments that give us reasons for optimism as well as some caveats.Recent findingsNew developments in diagnostic and vector control tools, and especially in treatment, make it possible to strive for elimination of transmission of gHAT by 2030, perhaps even eradication.SummaryGambiense human African trypanosomiasis is a deadly infectious disease affecting West and Central Africa, South Sudan and Uganda, and transmitted between humans by tsetse flies. The disease has caused several major epidemics, the latest one in the 1990s. Thanks to recent innovations such as rapid diagnostic tests for population screening, a single-dose oral treatment and a highly efficient vector control strategy, interruption of transmission of the causative parasite is now within reach. If indeed gHAT has an exclusively human reservoir, this could even result in eradication of the disease. Even if there were an animal reservoir, on the basis of epidemiological data, it plays a limited role. Maintaining adequate postelimination surveillance in known historic foci, using the newly developed tools, should be sufficient to prevent any future resurgence.
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Project description:Gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) is one of several neglected tropical diseases that is targeted for elimination by the World Health Organization. Recent years have seen a substantial decline in the number of globally reported cases, largely driven by an intensive process of screening and treatment. However, this infection is highly focal, continuing to persist at low prevalence even in small populations. Regional elimination, and ultimately global eradication, rests on understanding the dynamics and persistence of this infection at the local population scale. Here we develop a stochastic model of gHAT dynamics, which is underpinned by screening and reporting data from one of the highest gHAT incidence regions, Kwilu Province, in the Democratic Republic of Congo. We use this model to explore the persistence of gHAT in villages of different population sizes and subject to different patterns of screening. Our models demonstrate that infection is expected to persist for long periods even in relatively small isolated populations. We further use the model to assess the risk of recrudescence following local elimination and consider how failing to detect cases during active screening events informs the probability of elimination. These quantitative results provide insights for public health policy in the region, particularly highlighting the difficulties in achieving and measuring the 2030 elimination goal.
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Project description:BackgroundOver the last few years, momentum has gathered around the feasibility and opportunity of eliminating gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (g-HAT). Under the leadership of the World Health Organization (WHO), a large coalition of stakeholders is now committed to achieving this goal. A roadmap has been laid out, and indicators and milestones have been defined to monitor the progress of the elimination of g-HAT as a public health problem by 2020. Subsequently, a more ambitious objective was set for 2030: to stop disease transmission. This paper provides a situational update to 2012 for a number of indicators of elimination: number of cases annually reported, geographic distribution of the disease and areas and populations at different levels of risk.ResultsComparing the 5-year periods 2003-2007 and 2008-2012, the area at high or very high risk of g-HAT shrank by 60%, while the area at moderate risk decreased by 22%. These are the areas where g-HAT is still to be considered a public health problem (i.e. > 1 HAT reported case per 10,000 people per annum). This contraction of at-risk areas corresponds to a reduction of 57% for the population at high or very high risk (from 4.1 to 1.8 million), and 20% for moderate risk (from 14.0 to 11.3 million).DiscussionImproved data completeness and accuracy of the Atlas of HAT enhanced our capacity to monitor the progress towards the elimination of g-HAT. The trends in the selected indicators suggest that, in recent years, progress has been steady and in line with the elimination goal laid out in the WHO roadmap on neglected tropical diseases.
| S-EPMC4461311 | biostudies-literature
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| S-EPMC9302778 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionThe incidence of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) in Uganda has been declining, from 198 cases in 2008, to only 20 in 2012. Interruption of transmission of the disease by early diagnosis and treatment is core to the control and eventual elimination of gHAT. Until recently, the format of available screening tests had restricted screening and diagnosis to central health facilities (passive screening). We describe a novel strategy that is contributing to elimination of gHAT in Uganda through expansion of passive screening to the entire population at risk.Methodology / principal findingsIn this strategy, patients who are clinically suspected of having gHAT at primary health facilities are screened using a rapid diagnostic test (RDT), followed by parasitological confirmation at strategically located microscopy centres. For patients who are positive with the RDT and negative by microscopy, blood samples undergo further testing using loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP), a molecular test that detects parasite DNA. LAMP positive patients are considered strong suspects, and are re-evaluated by microscopy. Location and upgrading of facilities to perform microscopy and LAMP was informed by results of georeferencing and characterization of all public healthcare facilities in the 7 gHAT endemic districts in Uganda. Three facilities were upgraded to perform RDTs, microscopy and LAMP, 9 to perform RDTs and microscopy, and 200 to screen patients with RDTs. This reduced the distance that a sick person must travel to be screened for gHAT to a median distance of 2.5km compared to 23km previously. In this strategy, 9 gHAT cases were diagnosed in 2014, and 4 in 2015.ConclusionsThis enhanced passive screening strategy for gHAT has enabled full coverage of the population at risk, and is being replicated in other gHAT endemic countries. The improvement in case detection is making elimination of the disease in Uganda an imminent possibility.
| S-EPMC5638538 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe World Health Organization targeted Trypanosoma brucei gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) for elimination as a public health problem and for elimination of transmission. To measure gHAT elimination success with prevalences close to zero, highly specific diagnostics are necessary. Such a test exists in the form of an antibody-mediated complement lysis test, the trypanolysis test, but biosafety issues and technological requirements prevent its large-scale use. We developed an inhibition ELISA with high specificity and sensitivity that is applicable in regional laboratories in gHAT endemic countries.MethodsThe T. b. gambiense inhibition ELISA (g-iELISA) is based on the principle that binding of monoclonal antibodies to specific epitopes of T. b. gambiense surface glycoproteins can be inhibited by circulating antibodies of gHAT patients directed against the same epitopes. Using trypanolysis as reference test, the diagnostic accuracy of the g-iELISA was evaluated on plasma samples from 739 gHAT patients and 619 endemic controls and on dried blood spots prepared with plasma of 95 gHAT and 37 endemic controls.ResultsOverall sensitivity and specificity on plasma were respectively 98.0% (95% CI 96.7 - 98.9) and 99.5% (95% CI 98.6-99.9). With dried blood spots, sensitivity was 92.6% (95% CI 85.4 - 97.0), and specificity was 100% (95% CI 90.5 - 100.0). The g-iELISA is stable for at least 8 months when stored at 2-8°C.ConclusionThe g-iELISA might largely replace trypanolysis for monitoring gHAT elimination and for post-elimination surveillance. The g-iELISA kit is available for evaluation in reference laboratories in endemic countries.
| S-EPMC8563279 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundIn recent years, a programme of vector control, screening and treatment of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) infections led to a rapid decline in cases in the Mandoul focus of Chad. To represent the biology of transmission between humans and tsetse, we previously developed a mechanistic transmission model, fitted to data between 2000 and 2013 which suggested that transmission was interrupted by 2015. The present study outlines refinements to the model to: (1) Assess whether elimination of transmission has already been achieved despite low-level case reporting; (2) quantify the role of intensified interventions in transmission reduction; and (3) predict the trajectory of gHAT in Mandoul for the next decade under different strategies.MethodOur previous gHAT transmission model for Mandoul was updated using human case data (2000-2019) and a series of model refinements. These include how diagnostic specificity is incorporated into the model and improvements to the fitting method (increased variance in observed case reporting and how underreporting and improvements to passive screening are captured). A side-by-side comparison of fitting to case data was performed between the models.ResultsWe estimated that passive detection rates have increased due to improvements in diagnostic availability in fixed health facilities since 2015, by 2.1-fold for stage 1 detection, and 1.5-fold for stage 2. We find that whilst the diagnostic algorithm for active screening is estimated to be highly specific (95% credible interval (CI) 99.9-100%, Specificity = 99.9%), the high screening and low infection levels mean that some recently reported cases with no parasitological confirmation might be false positives. We also find that the focus-wide tsetse reduction estimated through model fitting (95% CI 96.1-99.6%, Reduction = 99.1%) is comparable to the reduction previously measured by the decline in tsetse catches from monitoring traps. In line with previous results, the model suggests that transmission was interrupted in 2015 due to intensified interventions.ConclusionsWe recommend that additional confirmatory testing is performed in Mandoul to ensure the endgame can be carefully monitored. More specific measurement of cases, would better inform when it is safe to stop active screening and vector control, provided there is a strong passive surveillance system in place.
| S-EPMC8785021 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND: Algorithms to diagnose gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (HAT, sleeping sickness) are often complex due to the unsatisfactory sensitivity and/or specificity of available tests, and typically include a screening (serological), confirmation (parasitological) and staging component. There is insufficient evidence on the relative accuracy of these algorithms. This paper presents estimates of the accuracy of five algorithms used by past Médecins Sans Frontières programmes in the Republic of Congo, Southern Sudan and Uganda. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The sequence of tests in each algorithm was programmed into a probabilistic model, informed by distributions of the sensitivity, specificity and staging accuracy of each test, constructed based on a literature review. The accuracy of algorithms was estimated in a baseline scenario and in a worst-case scenario introducing various near worst-case assumptions. In the baseline scenario, sensitivity was estimated as 85-90% in all but one algorithm, with specificity above 99.9% except for the Republic of Congo, where CATT serology was used as independent confirmation test: here, positive predictive value (PPV) was estimated at <50% in realistic active screening prevalence scenarios. Furthermore, most algorithms misclassified about one third of true stage 1 cases as stage 2, and about 10% of true stage 2 cases as stage 1. In the worst-case scenario, sensitivity was 75-90% and PPV no more than 75% at 1% prevalence, with about half of stage 1 cases misclassified as stage 2. CONCLUSIONS: Published evidence on the accuracy of widely used tests is scanty. Algorithms should carefully weigh the use of serology alone for confirmation, and could enhance sensitivity through serological suspect follow-up and repeat parasitology. Better evidence on the frequency of low-parasitaemia infections is needed. Simulation studies should guide the tailoring of algorithms to specific scenarios of HAT prevalence and availability of control tools.
| S-EPMC3130008 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:Serological tests for gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) detect antibodies to antigens on the cell surface of bloodstream trypanosomes. As trypanosomes that cause animal African trypanosomiasis (AAT) also express related antigens, we have evaluated two rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) on cattle in trypanosomiasis endemic and non-endemic regions, to determine whether gHAT serological tests could also be used to screen for AAT. METHODS:Two RDTs, 1G RDT, made with native antigens, and p2G RDT, made with recombinant antigens, were tested on 121 cattle in a trypanosomiasis-free region, and on 312 cattle from a rhodesiense HAT and AAT endemic region. A subset of samples from the endemic region were also tested with two immune trypanolysis (TL) tests. The sensitivity of the tests was estimated by evaluating the result of the RDT on samples that were positive by both microscopy and internal transcribed spacer (ITS) PCR, whilst specificity was the result of the RDT on samples that were negative by ITS PCR and microscopy, and others from the non-endemic region. RESULTS:The specificity of the p2G RDT on cattle from the non-endemic region was 97.5% (95% CI: 93.0-99.2%), compared to only 57.9% (95% CI: 48.9-66.3%) for 1G RDT. The specificities of 1G RDT, p2G RDT and TL on endemic control cattle were 14.6% (95% CI: 9.7-21.5%), 22.6% (95% CI: 16.4-30.3%) and 68.3% (95% CI: 59.6-75.9%), respectively. The sensitivities of the tests on trypanosome positive samples were 85.1% (95% CI: 79.1-89.7%), 89.1% (95% CI: 83.7-93.0%) and 59.3% (95% CI: 51.8-66.4%), respectively. Among the same samples, 51.7% were positive by both TL and the 1G RDT. CONCLUSIONS:These serological tests detect cross-reacting antibodies in cattle. The p2G RDT based on recombinant antigens had a high specificity in a non-endemic region, while the 1G RDT had a lower specificity, suggesting cross-reactivity with other pathogens.
| S-EPMC5670715 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Human African trypanosomiasis (HAT), transmitted by tsetse flies, has historically infected hundreds of thousands of individuals annually in sub-Saharan Africa. Over the last decade, concerted control efforts have reduced reported cases to below 10,000 annually, bringing complete elimination within reach. A potential technology to eliminate HAT involves rendering the flies resistant to trypanosome infection. This approach can be achieved through the introduction of transgenic Sodalis symbiotic bacteria that have been modified to produce a trypanocide, and propagated via Wolbachia symbionts, which confer a reproductive advantage to the paratransgenic tsetse. However, the population dynamics of these symbionts within tsetse flies have not yet been evaluated. Specifically, the key factors that determine the effectiveness of paratransgenesis have yet to be quantified. To identify the impact of these determinants on T.b. gambiense and T.b. rhodesiense transmission, we developed a mathematical model of trypanosome transmission that incorporates tsetse and symbiont population dynamics. We found that fecundity and mortality penalties associated with Wolbachia or recombinant Sodalis colonization, probabilities of vertical transmission, and tsetse migration rates are fundamental to the feasibility of HAT elimination. For example, we determined that HAT elimination could be sustained over 25 years when Wolbachia colonization minimally impacted fecundity or mortality, and when the probability of recombinant Sodalis vertical transmission exceeded 99.9%. We also found that for a narrow range of recombinant Sodalis vertical transmission probability (99.9-90.6% for T.b. gambiense and 99.9-85.8% for T.b. rhodesiense), cumulative HAT incidence was reduced between 30% and 1% for T.b. gambiense and between 21% and 3% for T.b. rhodesiense, although elimination was not predicted. Our findings indicate that fitness and mortality penalties associated with paratransgenic symbionts, as well as tsetse migration rates, are instrumental to HAT elimination, and should be a key focus in the development of paratransgenic symbionts.
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