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Predicting rehospitalization within 2 years of initial patient admission for a major depressive episode: a multimodal machine learning approach.

ABSTRACT: Machine learning methods show promise to translate univariate biomarker findings into clinically useful multivariate decision support systems. At current, works in major depressive disorder have predominantly focused on neuroimaging and clinical predictor modalities, with genetic, blood-biomarker, and cardiovascular modalities lacking. In addition, the prediction of rehospitalization after an initial inpatient major depressive episode is yet to be explored, despite its clinical importance. To address this gap in the literature, we have used baseline clinical, structural imaging, blood-biomarker, genetic (polygenic risk scores), bioelectrical impedance and electrocardiography predictors to predict rehospitalization within 2 years of an initial inpatient episode of major depression. Three hundred and eighty patients from the ongoing 12-year Bidirect study were included in the analysis (rehospitalized: yes?=?102, no?=?278). Inclusion criteria was age ?35 and <66 years, a current or recent hospitalisation for a major depressive episode and complete structural imaging and genetic data. Optimal performance was achieved with a multimodal panel containing structural imaging, blood-biomarker, clinical, medication type, and sleep quality predictors, attaining a test AUC of 67.74 (p?=?9.99-05). This multimodal solution outperformed models based on clinical variables alone, combined biomarkers, and individual data modality prognostication for rehospitalization prediction. This finding points to the potential of predictive models that combine multimodal clinical and biomarker data in the development of clinical decision support systems.

SUBMITTER: Cearns M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6848135 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predicting rehospitalization within 2 years of initial patient admission for a major depressive episode: a multimodal machine learning approach.

Cearns Micah M Opel Nils N Clark Scott S Kaehler Claas C Thalamuthu Anbupalam A Heindel Walter W Winter Theresa T Teismann Henning H Minnerup Heike H Dannlowski Udo U Berger Klaus K Baune Bernhard T BT

Translational psychiatry 20191111 1

Machine learning methods show promise to translate univariate biomarker findings into clinically useful multivariate decision support systems. At current, works in major depressive disorder have predominantly focused on neuroimaging and clinical predictor modalities, with genetic, blood-biomarker, and cardiovascular modalities lacking. In addition, the prediction of rehospitalization after an initial inpatient major depressive episode is yet to be explored, despite its clinical importance. To ad ...[more]

PMID: 31712550

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Project description:Selecting a course of treatment in psychiatry remains a trial-and-error process, and this long-standing clinical challenge has prompted an increased focus on predictive models of treatment response using machine learning techniques. Electroencephalography (EEG) represents a cost-effective and scalable potential measure to predict treatment response to major depressive disorder. We performed separate meta-analyses to determine the ability of models to distinguish between responders and non-responders using EEG across treatments, as well as a performed subgroup analysis of response to transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS), and antidepressants (Registration Number: CRD42021257477) in Major Depressive Disorder by searching PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science for articles published between January 1960 and February 2022. We included 15 studies that predicted treatment responses among patients with major depressive disorder using machine-learning techniques. Within a random-effects model with a restricted maximum likelihood estimator comprising 758 patients, the pooled accuracy across studies was 83.93% (95% CI: 78.90-89.29), with an Area-Under-the-Curve (AUC) of 0.850 (95% CI: 0.747-0.890), and partial AUC of 0.779. The average sensitivity and specificity across models were 77.96% (95% CI: 60.05-88.70), and 84.60% (95% CI: 67.89-92.39), respectively. In a subgroup analysis, greater performance was observed in predicting response to rTMS (Pooled accuracy: 85.70% (95% CI: 77.45-94.83), Area-Under-the-Curve (AUC): 0.928, partial AUC: 0.844), relative to antidepressants (Pooled accuracy: 81.41% (95% CI: 77.45-94.83, AUC: 0.895, pAUC: 0.821). Furthermore, across all meta-analyses, the specificity (true negatives) of EEG models was greater than the sensitivity (true positives), suggesting that EEG models thus far better identify non-responders than responders to treatment in MDD. Studies varied widely in important features across models, although relevant features included absolute and relative power in frontal and temporal electrodes, measures of connectivity, and asymmetry across hemispheres. Predictive models of treatment response using EEG hold promise in major depressive disorder, although there is a need for prospective model validation in independent datasets, and a greater emphasis on replicating physiological markers. Crucially, standardization in cut-off values and clinical scales for defining clinical response and non-response will aid in the reproducibility of findings and the clinical utility of predictive models. Furthermore, several models thus far have used data from open-label trials with small sample sizes and evaluated performance in the absence of training and testing sets, which increases the risk of statistical overfitting. Large consortium studies are required to establish predictive signatures of treatment response using EEG, and better elucidate the replicability of specific markers. Additionally, it is speculated that greater performance was observed in rTMS models, since EEG is assessing neural networks more likely to be directly targeted by rTMS, comprising electrical activity primarily near the surface of the cortex. Prospectively, there is a need for models that examine the comparative effectiveness of multiple treatments across the same patients. However, this will require a thoughtful consideration towards cumulative treatment effects, and whether washout periods between treatments should be utilised. Regardless, longitudinal cross-over trials comparing multiple treatments across the same group of patients will be an important prerequisite step to both facilitate precision psychiatry and identify generalizable physiological predictors of response between and across treatment options.

Project description:BackgroundMajor depressive episode (MDE) is a common clinical syndrome. It can be found in different pathologies such as major depressive disorder (MDD), bipolar disorder (BD), posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), or even occur in the context of psychological trauma. However, only 1 syndrome is described in international classifications (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition [DSM-5]/International Classification of Diseases 11th Revision [ICD-11]), which do not take into account the underlying pathology at the origin of the MDE. Clinical interviews are currently the best source of information to obtain the etiological diagnosis of MDE. Nevertheless, it does not allow an early diagnosis and there are no objective measures of extracted clinical information. To remedy this, the use of digital tools and their correlation with clinical symptomatology could be useful.ObjectiveWe aimed to review the current application of digital tools for MDE diagnosis while highlighting shortcomings for further research. In addition, our work was focused on digital devices easy to use during clinical interview and mental health issues where depression is common.MethodsWe conducted a narrative review of the use of digital tools during clinical interviews for MDE by searching papers published in PubMed/MEDLINE, Web of Science, and Google Scholar databases since February 2010. The search was conducted from June to September 2021. Potentially relevant papers were then compared against a checklist for relevance and reviewed independently for inclusion, with focus on 4 allocated topics of (1) automated voice analysis, behavior analysis by (2) video and physiological measures, (3) heart rate variability (HRV), and (4) electrodermal activity (EDA). For this purpose, we were interested in 4 frequently found clinical conditions in which MDE can occur: (1) MDD, (2) BD, (3) PTSD, and (4) psychological trauma.ResultsA total of 74 relevant papers on the subject were qualitatively analyzed and the information was synthesized. Thus, a digital phenotype of MDE seems to emerge consisting of modifications in speech features (namely, temporal, prosodic, spectral, source, and formants) and in speech content, modifications in nonverbal behavior (head, hand, body and eyes movement, facial expressivity, and gaze), and a decrease in physiological measurements (HRV and EDA). We not only found similarities but also differences when MDE occurs in MDD, BD, PTSD, or psychological trauma. However, comparative studies were rare in BD or PTSD conditions, which does not allow us to identify clear and distinct digital phenotypes.ConclusionsOur search identified markers from several modalities that hold promise for helping with a more objective diagnosis of MDE. To validate their potential, further longitudinal and prospective studies are needed.

Project description:There is compelling evidence that epigenetic factors contribute to the manifestation of depression, in which microRNA132 (miR-132) is suggested to play a pivotal role in the pathogenesis and neuronal mechanisms underlying the symptoms of depression. Additionally, several depression-associated genes [MECP2, ARHGAP32 (p250GAP), CREB, and period genes] were experimentally validated as miR-132 targets. However, most studies regarding miR-132 in major depressive disorder are based on post-mortem, animal models or genetic comparisons. This work will be the first attempt to investigate how miR-132 dysregulation may impact covariation of multimodal brain imaging data in 81 unmedicated major depressive patients and 123 demographically-matched healthy controls, as well as in a medication-naïve subset of major depressive patients. MiR-132 values in blood (patients > controls) was used as a prior reference to guide fusion of three MRI features: fractional amplitude of low frequency fluctuations, grey matter volume, and fractional anisotropy. The multimodal components correlated with miR-132 also show significant group difference in loadings. Results indicate that (i) higher miR-132 levels in major depressive disorder are associated with both lower fractional amplitude of low frequency fluctuations and lower grey matter volume in fronto-limbic network; and (ii) the identified brain regions linked with increased miR-132 levels were also associated with poorer cognitive performance in attention and executive function. Using a data-driven, supervised-learning method, we determined that miR-132 dysregulation in major depressive disorder is associated with multi-facets of brain function and structure in fronto-limbic network (the key network for emotional regulation and memory), which deepens our understanding of how miR-132 dysregulation in major depressive disorders contribute to the loss of specific brain areas and is linked to relevant cognitive impairments.

Project description:ObjectiveTo predict hospital admission at the time of ED triage using patient history in addition to information collected at triage.MethodsThis retrospective study included all adult ED visits between March 2014 and July 2017 from one academic and two community emergency rooms that resulted in either admission or discharge. A total of 972 variables were extracted per patient visit. Samples were randomly partitioned into training (80%), validation (10%), and test (10%) sets. We trained a series of nine binary classifiers using logistic regression (LR), gradient boosting (XGBoost), and deep neural networks (DNN) on three dataset types: one using only triage information, one using only patient history, and one using the full set of variables. Next, we tested the potential benefit of additional training samples by training models on increasing fractions of our data. Lastly, variables of importance were identified using information gain as a metric to create a low-dimensional model.ResultsA total of 560,486 patient visits were included in the study, with an overall admission risk of 29.7%. Models trained on triage information yielded a test AUC of 0.87 for LR (95% CI 0.86-0.87), 0.87 for XGBoost (95% CI 0.87-0.88) and 0.87 for DNN (95% CI 0.87-0.88). Models trained on patient history yielded an AUC of 0.86 for LR (95% CI 0.86-0.87), 0.87 for XGBoost (95% CI 0.87-0.87) and 0.87 for DNN (95% CI 0.87-0.88). Models trained on the full set of variables yielded an AUC of 0.91 for LR (95% CI 0.91-0.91), 0.92 for XGBoost (95% CI 0.92-0.93) and 0.92 for DNN (95% CI 0.92-0.92). All algorithms reached maximum performance at 50% of the training set or less. A low-dimensional XGBoost model built on ESI level, outpatient medication counts, demographics, and hospital usage statistics yielded an AUC of 0.91 (95% CI 0.91-0.91).ConclusionMachine learning can robustly predict hospital admission using triage information and patient history. The addition of historical information improves predictive performance significantly compared to using triage information alone, highlighting the need to incorporate these variables into prediction models.

Dataset Information

Predicting rehospitalization within 2 years of initial patient admission for a major depressive episode: a multimodal machine learning approach.

Publications

Predicting rehospitalization within 2 years of initial patient admission for a major depressive episode: a multimodal machine learning approach.

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