Dataset Information

Cancer incidence trends using American Community Survey estimates are not consistent with SEER for small populations.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:American Community Survey (ACS) estimates are said to be uncertain for small areas and small population groups. The Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database uses a decennial census extrapolation methodology to yield population estimates used by cancer researchers across the country. We compared metropolitan Detroit cancer incidence estimates calculated using ACS data to those using SEER population estimates, which we considered to be the gold standard. METHODS:We generated age-adjusted cancer incidence rate estimates for 1-year, 3-year and 5-year time periods (2005-2010) using SEER and ACS population estimates for four racial/ethnic groups by sex and cancer type for residents in the tri-county Detroit area. We calculated incidence rate ratios (IRRs) with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs), and compared trends. RESULTS:While the IRRs were rarely significant, there were significant differences in incidence rate estimates for Hispanic males. Additionally, interpretation of trends varied by the estimate source: the ACS-based lung cancer incidence rate estimate for Hispanic females increased from 70.59 (95% CI 44.85, 110.67) to 86.13 (95% CI 54.83, 132.44) per 100,000 women from 2007 to 2010, while the SEER incidence rate estimate decreased from 80.76 (95% CI 53.36, 119.24) to 73.54 (95% CI 49.24, 106.62). CONCLUSIONS:Inconsistencies were found when comparing incidence rate estimates for small population groups using the two population estimate sources. This finding has potential implications for health disparities research.

SUBMITTER: Mantey J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6849392 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Cancer incidence trends using American Community Survey estimates are not consistent with SEER for small populations.

Mantey Julia J Ruterbusch Julie J Meza Rafael R Schwartz Kendra K

Cancer epidemiology 20160713

<h4>Background</h4>American Community Survey (ACS) estimates are said to be uncertain for small areas and small population groups. The Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database uses a decennial census extrapolation methodology to yield population estimates used by cancer researchers across the country. We compared metropolitan Detroit cancer incidence estimates calculated using ACS data to those using SEER population estimates, which we considered to be the gold standard.<h4>Met ...[more]

PMID: 27420630

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Project description:BackgroundNational cancer incidence trends are presented for eight Asian American groups: Asian Indians/Pakistanis, Chinese, Filipinos, Japanese, Kampucheans, Koreans, Laotians, and Vietnamese.MethodsCancer incidence data from 1990 through 2008 were obtained from 13 Surveillance, Epidemiology, End Results (SEER) registries. Incidence rates from 1990 through 2008 and average percentage change were computed using SEER*Stat and Joinpoint software. The annual percentage change (APC) in incidence rates was estimated with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) calculated for both the rate and APC estimates. Rates for non-Hispanic whites are presented for comparison.ResultsProstate cancer was the most common malignancy among most groups, followed by lung, colorectal, liver, and stomach cancers. Breast cancer was generally the most common cancer in women, followed by colorectal and lung cancers; liver, cervix, thyroid, and stomach cancers also ranked highly. Among men, increasing trends were observed for prostate (Asian Indians and Pakistanis: APC 1990-2003 = 2.2, 95% CI = 0.3 to 4.1; Filipinos: APC 1990-1994 = 19.0, 95% CI = 4.5 to 35.4; Koreans: APC 1990-2008 = 2.9, 95% CI = 1.8 to 4.0), colorectal (Koreans: APC 1990-2008 = 2.2, 95% CI = 0.9 to 3.5), and liver cancers (Filipinos: APC 1990-2008 = 1.6, 95% CI = 0.4 to 2.7; Koreans: APC 1990-2006 = 2.1, 95% CI = 0.4 to 3.7; Vietnamese: APC 1990-2008 = 1.6, 95% CI = 0.3 to 2.8), whereas lung and stomach cancers generally remained stable or decreased. Among women, increases were observed for uterine cancer (Asian Indians: APC 1990-2008 = 3.0, 95% CI = 0.3 to 5.8; Chinese: APC 2004-2008 = 7.0, 95% CI = 1.4 to 12.9; Filipina: APC 1990-2008 = 3.0, 95% CI = 2.4 to 3.7; Japanese: APC 1990-2008 = 1.1, 95% CI = 0.1 to 2.0), colorectal cancer (Koreans: APC 1990-2008 = 2.8, 95% CI = 1.7 to 3.9; Laotians: APC: 1990-2008 = 5.9, 95% CI = 4.0 to 7.7), lung cancer (Filipinas: APC 1990-2008 = 2.1, 95% CI = 1.4 to 2.8; Koreans: APC 1990-2008 = 2.1, 95% CI = 0.6 to 3.6), thyroid cancer (Filipinas: APC 1990-2008 = 2.5, 95% CI = 1.7 to 3.3), and breast cancer in most groups (APC 1990-2008 from 1.2 among Vietnamese and Chinese to 4.7 among Koreans). Decreases were observed for stomach (Chinese and Japanese), colorectal (Chinese), and cervical cancers (Laotians and Vietnamese).ConclusionsThese data fill a critical knowledge gap concerning the cancer experience of Asian American groups and highlight where increased preventive, screening, and surveillance efforts are needed-in particular, lung cancer among Filipina and Korean women and Asian Indian/Pakistani men, breast cancer among all women, and liver cancer among Vietnamese, Laotian, and Kampuchean women and Filipino, Kampuchean, and Vietnamese men.

Project description:Across the United States public health community in 2020, in the midst of a pandemic and increased concern regarding racial/ethnic health disparities, there is widespread concern about our ability to accurately estimate small-area disease incidence rates due to the absence of a recent census to obtain reliable population denominators. 2010 decennial census data are likely outdated, and intercensal population estimates from the Census Bureau, which are less temporally misaligned with real-time disease incidence data, are not recommended for use with small areas. Machine learning-based population estimates are an attractive option but have not been validated for use in epidemiologic studies. Treating 2010 decennial census counts as a "ground truth", we conduct a case study to compare the performance of alternative small-area population denominator estimates from surrounding years for modeling real-time disease incidence rates. Our case study focuses on modeling health disparities in census tract incidence rates in Massachusetts, using population size estimates from the American Community Survey (ACS), the most commonly-used intercensal small-area population data in epidemiology, and WorldPop, a machine learning model for high-resolution population size estimation. Through simulation studies and an analysis of real premature mortality data, we evaluate whether WorldPop denominators can provide improved performance relative to ACS for quantifying disparities using both census tract-aggregate and race-stratified modeling approaches. We find that biases induced in parameter estimates due to temporally incompatible incidence and denominator data tend to be larger for race-stratified models than for area-aggregate models. In most scenarios considered here, WorldPop denominators lead to greater bias in estimates of health disparities than ACS denominators. These insights will assist researchers in intercensal years to select appropriate population size estimates for modeling disparities in real-time disease incidence. We highlight implications for health disparity studies in the coming decade, as 2020 census counts may introduce new sources of error.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Recent studies have indicated that the incidence of esophageal cancer has declined in the past decade in the U.S. However, trends in the incidence and survival have not been thoroughly examined. METHODS:Data from 46?063 patients with esophageal cancer between 1973 and 2015 were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. The trends in the age-adjusted incidence and survival were analyzed using joinpoint regression models. RESULTS:The age-adjusted incidence of esophageal cancer increased from 5.55 to 7.44 per 100?000 person-years between 1973 and 2004. Later, it decreased at an annual percentage change of 1.23%. In the last 40?years, the strong male predominance increased slightly. Importantly, the percentage of patients with localized stage of squamous cell cancer decreased. It was observed that the incidence of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma declined since 1986, while the incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma sharply increased since 1973 and surpassed the rate of squamous cell cancer, mainly due to the increase in the incidence among men. Consistently, the estimated 40-year limited-duration prevalence of esophageal adenocarcinoma was higher than that of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. Additionally, we observed a modest but significant improvement in survival during the study period. CONCLUSION:The incidence of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma has decreased significantly over the past four decades in the U.S., while the incidence of adenocarcinoma has increased, particularly among men. Overall, the long-term survival of patients with esophageal cancer is poor but it has improved over the past decades, especially for the localized disease. KEY POINTS:Significant findings of the study The incidence of esophageal cancer has decreased at an annual percentage change of 1.23% since 2004. The incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma has sharply increased since 1973 and surpassed the rate of squamous cell cancer, mainly due to the increase in the incidence among men. What this study adds There has been a shift in the prevalence of esophageal cancer histological subtypes over the past decades in the U.S. We found that the incidence of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma has continued to decrease, while the esophageal adenocarcinoma rate has continued to increase.

Project description:BACKGROUND: Measuring progress towards Millennium Development Goal 6, including estimates of, and time trends in, the number of malaria cases, has relied on risk maps constructed from surveys of parasite prevalence, and on routine case reports compiled by health ministries. Here we present a critique of both methods, illustrated with national incidence estimates for 2009. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We compiled information on the number of cases reported by National Malaria Control Programs in 99 countries with ongoing malaria transmission. For 71 countries we estimated the total incidence of Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax by adjusting the number of reported cases using data on reporting completeness, the proportion of suspects that are parasite-positive, the proportion of confirmed cases due to each Plasmodium species, and the extent to which patients use public sector health facilities. All four factors varied markedly among countries and regions. For 28 African countries with less reliable routine surveillance data, we estimated the number of cases from model-based methods that link measures of malaria transmission with case incidence. In 2009, 98% of cases were due to P. falciparum in Africa and 65% in other regions. There were an estimated 225 million malaria cases (5th-95th centiles, 146-316 million) worldwide, 176 (110-248) million in the African region, and 49 (36-68) million elsewhere. Our estimates are lower than other published figures, especially survey-based estimates for non-African countries. CONCLUSIONS: Estimates of malaria incidence derived from routine surveillance data were typically lower than those derived from surveys of parasite prevalence. Carefully interpreted surveillance data can be used to monitor malaria trends in response to control efforts, and to highlight areas where malaria programs and health information systems need to be strengthened. As malaria incidence declines around the world, evaluation of control efforts will increasingly rely on robust systems of routine surveillance.

Project description:The scarcity of country data (e.g. a cancer registry) for the burden of cervical cancer (CC) in low-income countries (LCIs) such as Swaziland remains a huge challenge. Such data are critical to inform local decision-making regarding resource allocation [1]. We aimed to estimate likely cervical cancer incidence in Swaziland using three different methodologies (triangulation), to help better inform local policy guidance regarding likely higher "true" burden and increased resource allocation required for treatment, cervical cancer screening and HPV vaccine implementation.Three methods were applied to estimate CC incidence, namely: 1) application of age-specific CC incidence rates for Southern African region from GLOBOCAN 2012 extrapolated to the 2014 Swaziland female population; 2) a linear regression based model with transformed age-standardised CC incidence against hr-HPV (with and without HIV as a covariate) prevalence among women with normal cervical cytology; and 3) a mathematical model, using a natural history approach based on parameter estimates from various available literature and local survey estimates. We then triangulated estimates and uncertainty from the three models to estimate the most likely CC incidence rate for Swaziland in 2015.The projected incidence estimates for models 1-3 were 69.4 (95% CI: 66.7-72.1), 62.6 per 100,000 (95%CI: 53.7-71.8) and 44.6 per 100,000 (41.5 to 52.1) respectively. Model 2 with HIV prevalence as covariate estimated a higher CC incidence rate estimate of 101.1 per 100,000 (95%CI: 90.3-112.2). The triangulated ('averaged') age-standardized CC incidence based across the 3 models for 2015 was estimated at 69.4 per 100,000 (95% CI: 63.0-77.1) in Swaziland.It is widely accepted that cancer incidence (and in this case CC) is underestimated in settings with poor and lacking registry data. Our findings suggest that the projected burden of CC is higher than that suggested from other sources. Local health policy decisions and decision-makers need to re-assess resource allocation to prevent and treat CC effectively, which is likely to persist given the very high burden of hr-HPV within the country.

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Cancer incidence trends using American Community Survey estimates are not consistent with SEER for small populations.

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Cancer incidence trends using American Community Survey estimates are not consistent with SEER for small populations.

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