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Trends in the incidence and survival of patients with esophageal cancer: A SEER database analysis.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Recent studies have indicated that the incidence of esophageal cancer has declined in the past decade in the U.S. However, trends in the incidence and survival have not been thoroughly examined. METHODS:Data from 46?063 patients with esophageal cancer between 1973 and 2015 were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. The trends in the age-adjusted incidence and survival were analyzed using joinpoint regression models. RESULTS:The age-adjusted incidence of esophageal cancer increased from 5.55 to 7.44 per 100?000 person-years between 1973 and 2004. Later, it decreased at an annual percentage change of 1.23%. In the last 40?years, the strong male predominance increased slightly. Importantly, the percentage of patients with localized stage of squamous cell cancer decreased. It was observed that the incidence of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma declined since 1986, while the incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma sharply increased since 1973 and surpassed the rate of squamous cell cancer, mainly due to the increase in the incidence among men. Consistently, the estimated 40-year limited-duration prevalence of esophageal adenocarcinoma was higher than that of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. Additionally, we observed a modest but significant improvement in survival during the study period. CONCLUSION:The incidence of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma has decreased significantly over the past four decades in the U.S., while the incidence of adenocarcinoma has increased, particularly among men. Overall, the long-term survival of patients with esophageal cancer is poor but it has improved over the past decades, especially for the localized disease. KEY POINTS:Significant findings of the study The incidence of esophageal cancer has decreased at an annual percentage change of 1.23% since 2004. The incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma has sharply increased since 1973 and surpassed the rate of squamous cell cancer, mainly due to the increase in the incidence among men. What this study adds There has been a shift in the prevalence of esophageal cancer histological subtypes over the past decades in the U.S. We found that the incidence of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma has continued to decrease, while the esophageal adenocarcinoma rate has continued to increase.

SUBMITTER: He H

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7180574 | biostudies-literature | 2020 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Trends in the incidence and survival of patients with esophageal cancer: A SEER database analysis.

He Haiqi H Chen Nanzheng N Hou Yue Y Wang Zhe Z Zhang Yong Y Zhang Guangjian G Fu Junke J

Thoracic cancer 20200310 5

<h4>Background</h4>Recent studies have indicated that the incidence of esophageal cancer has declined in the past decade in the U.S. However, trends in the incidence and survival have not been thoroughly examined.<h4>Methods</h4>Data from 46 063 patients with esophageal cancer between 1973 and 2015 were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. The trends in the age-adjusted incidence and survival were analyzed using joinpoint regression models.<h4>Results</h4>The ...[more]

PMID: 32154652

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Project description:Purpose The lung is the most common distant metastatic organ in patients with endometrial cancer (EC) but is rarely reported. This study examines the association between clinical characteristics and overall survival (OS) in EC with lung metastasis. Methods Patients with EC who had accompanying lung metastasis were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 2010 and 2017. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) and assess OS outcomes related to EC with lung metastasis. A Cox proportional hazards nomogram model for OS was constructed and validated. The calibration plot, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the discriminative ability and clinical benefit of the novel nomogram. Kaplan–Meier curves and scatter diagram analysis were used to investigate the risk stratifications of the nomogram. Results Overall, 1542 EC patients with lung metastasis between 2010 and 2017 were included and randomly divided into training and validation cohorts. A nomogram model was constructed using the clinical characteristics of tumor grade, histological type, surgery, adjuvant chemotherapy, adjuvant radiation, brain metastasis and liver metastasis. The concordance indexes (C-indexes) were 0.750 (95% CI, 0.732-0.767) and 0.743 (95% CI, 0.719-0.767) for the training cohort and validation cohort, respectively. Calibration plots and DCA showed good clinical applicability of the nomogram. The areas under the curves (AUCs) were 0.803 and 0.766 for 1-year and 3-year OS, respectively, indicating that the nomogram model had a stable discriminative ability. An online calculator of our nomogram is available on the internet at https://endometrialcancer.shinyapps.io/DynNomapp/. Additionally, patients in the high-risk group had a significantly worse OS than those in the low-risk group. Conclusion An easy-to-use, highly accurate nomogram was developed for predicting the prognosis of EC patients with lung metastasis.

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Trends in the incidence and survival of patients with esophageal cancer: A SEER database analysis.

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Trends in the incidence and survival of patients with esophageal cancer: A SEER database analysis.

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