Dataset Information

Simulation Based Evaluation of Time Series for Syndromic Surveillance of Cattle in Switzerland.

ABSTRACT: Choosing the syndrome time series to monitor in a syndromic surveillance system is not a straight forward process. Defining which syndromes to monitor in order to maximize detection performance has been recently identified as one of the research priorities in Syndromic surveillance. Estimating the minimum size of an epidemic that could potentially be detected in a specific syndrome could be used as a criteria for comparing the performance of different syndrome time series, and could provide some guidance for syndrome selection. The aim of our study was to estimate the potential value of different time series for building a national syndromic surveillance system for cattle in Switzerland. Simulations were used to produce outbreaks of different size and shape and to estimate the ability of each time series and aberration detection algorithm to detect them with high sensitivity, specificity and timeliness. Two temporal aberration detection algorithms were also compared: Holt-Winters generalized exponential smoothing (HW) and Exponential Weighted Moving Average (EWMA). Our results indicated that a specific aberration detection algorithm should be used for each time series. In addition, time series with high counts per unit of time had good overall detection performance, but poor detection performance for small epidemics making them of limited use for an early detection system. Estimating the minimum size of simulated epidemics that could potentially be detected in syndrome TS-event detection pairs can help surveillance system designers choosing the most appropriate syndrome TS to include in their early epidemic surveillance system.

SUBMITTER: Faverjon C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6856673 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Simulation Based Evaluation of Time Series for Syndromic Surveillance of Cattle in Switzerland.

Faverjon Céline C Schärrer Sara S Hadorn Daniela C DC Berezowski John J

Frontiers in veterinary science 20191105

Choosing the syndrome time series to monitor in a syndromic surveillance system is not a straight forward process. Defining which syndromes to monitor in order to maximize detection performance has been recently identified as one of the research priorities in Syndromic surveillance. Estimating the minimum size of an epidemic that could potentially be detected in a specific syndrome could be used as a criteria for comparing the performance of different syndrome time series, and could provide some ...[more]

PMID: 31781581

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Project description:BackgroundAfter bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) emerged in European cattle livestock in 1986 a fundamental question was whether the agent established also in the small ruminants' population. In Switzerland transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) in small ruminants have been monitored since 1990. While in the most recent TSE cases a BSE infection could be excluded, for historical cases techniques to discriminate scrapie from BSE had not been available at the time of diagnosis and thus their status remained unclear. We herein applied state-of-the-art techniques to retrospectively classify these animals and to re-analyze the affected flocks for secondary cases. These results were the basis for models, simulating the course of TSEs over a period of 70 years. The aim was to come to a statistically based overall assessment of the TSE situation in the domestic small ruminant population in Switzerland.ResultsIn sum 16 TSE cases were identified in small ruminants in Switzerland since 1981, of which eight were atypical and six were classical scrapie. In two animals retrospective analysis did not allow any further classification due to the lack of appropriate tissue samples. We found no evidence for an infection with the BSE agent in the cases under investigation. In none of the affected flocks, secondary cases were identified. A Bayesian prevalence calculation resulted in most likely estimates of one case of BSE, five cases of classical scrapie and 21 cases of atypical scrapie per 100'000 small ruminants. According to our models none of the TSEs is considered to cause a broader epidemic in Switzerland. In a closed population, they are rather expected to fade out in the next decades or, in case of a sporadic origin, may remain at a very low level.ConclusionsIn summary, these data indicate that despite a significant epidemic of BSE in cattle, there is no evidence that BSE established in the small ruminant population in Switzerland. Classical and atypical scrapie both occur at a very low level and are not expected to escalate into an epidemic. In this situation the extent of TSE surveillance in small ruminants requires reevaluation based on cost-benefit analysis.

Dataset Information

Simulation Based Evaluation of Time Series for Syndromic Surveillance of Cattle in Switzerland.

Publications

Simulation Based Evaluation of Time Series for Syndromic Surveillance of Cattle in Switzerland.

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