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Handling underlying discrete variables with bivariate mixed hidden Markov models in NONMEM.

ABSTRACT: Non-linear mixed effects models typically deal with stochasticity in observed processes but models accounting for only observed processes may not be the most appropriate for all data. Hidden Markov models (HMMs) characterize the relationship between observed and hidden variables where the hidden variables can represent an underlying and unmeasurable disease status for example. Adding stochasticity to HMMs results in mixed HMMs (MHMMs) which potentially allow for the characterization of variability in unobservable processes. Further, HMMs can be extended to include more than one observation source and are then multivariate HMMs. In this work MHMMs were developed and applied in a chronic obstructive pulmonary disease example. The two hidden states included in the model were remission and exacerbation and two observation sources were considered, patient reported outcomes (PROs) and forced expiratory volume (FEV1). Estimation properties in the software NONMEM of model parameters were investigated with and without random and covariate effect parameters. The influence of including random and covariate effects of varying magnitudes on the parameters in the model was quantified and a power analysis was performed to compare the power of a single bivariate MHMM with two separate univariate MHMMs. A bivariate MHMM was developed for simulating and analysing hypothetical COPD data consisting of PRO and FEV1 measurements collected every week for 60 weeks. Parameter precision was high for all parameters with the exception of the variance of the transition rate dictating the transition from remission to exacerbation (relative root mean squared error [RRMSE]?>?150%). Parameter precision was better with higher magnitudes of the transition probability parameters. A drug effect was included on the transition rate probability and the precision of the drug effect parameter improved with increasing magnitude of the parameter. The power to detect the drug effect was improved by utilizing a bivariate MHMM model over the univariate MHMM models where the number of subject required for 80% power was 25 with the bivariate MHMM model versus 63 in the univariate MHMM FEV1 model and?>?100 in the univariate MHMM PRO model. The results advocates for the use of bivariate MHMM models when implementation is possible.

SUBMITTER: Brekkan A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6868114 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Handling underlying discrete variables with bivariate mixed hidden Markov models in NONMEM.

Brekkan A A Jönsson S S Karlsson M O MO Plan E L EL

Journal of pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics 20191026 6

Non-linear mixed effects models typically deal with stochasticity in observed processes but models accounting for only observed processes may not be the most appropriate for all data. Hidden Markov models (HMMs) characterize the relationship between observed and hidden variables where the hidden variables can represent an underlying and unmeasurable disease status for example. Adding stochasticity to HMMs results in mixed HMMs (MHMMs) which potentially allow for the characterization of variabili ...[more]

PMID: 31654267

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Project description:BackgroundRiboswitches are a type of noncoding RNA that regulate gene expression by switching from one structural conformation to another on ligand binding. The various classes of riboswitches discovered so far are differentiated by the ligand, which on binding induces a conformational switch. Every class of riboswitch is characterized by an aptamer domain, which provides the site for ligand binding, and an expression platform that undergoes conformational change on ligand binding. The sequence and structure of the aptamer domain is highly conserved in riboswitches belonging to the same class. We propose a method for fast and accurate identification of riboswitches using profile Hidden Markov Models (pHMM). Our method exploits the high degree of sequence conservation that characterizes the aptamer domain.ResultsOur method can detect riboswitches in genomic databases rapidly and accurately. Its sensitivity is comparable to the method based on the Covariance Model (CM). For six out of ten riboswitch classes, our method detects more than 99.5% of the candidates identified by the much slower CM method while being several hundred times faster. For three riboswitch classes, our method detects 97-99% of the candidates relative to the CM method. Our method works very well for those classes of riboswitches that are characterized by distinct and conserved sequence motifs.ConclusionRiboswitches play a crucial role in controlling the expression of several prokaryotic genes involved in metabolism and transport processes. As more and more new classes of riboswitches are being discovered, it is important to understand the patterns of their intra and inter genomic distribution. Understanding such patterns will enable us to better understand the evolutionary history of these genetic regulatory elements. However, a complete picture of the distribution pattern of riboswitches will emerge only after accurate identification of riboswitches across genomes. We believe that the riboswitch detection method developed in this paper will aid in that process. The significant advantage in terms of speed, of our pHMM-based approach over the method based on CM allows us to scan entire databases (rather than 5'UTRs only) in a relatively short period of time in order to accurately identify riboswitch candidates.

Dataset Information

Handling underlying discrete variables with bivariate mixed hidden Markov models in NONMEM.

Publications

Handling underlying discrete variables with bivariate mixed hidden Markov models in NONMEM.

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