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Characterizing infectious disease progression through discrete states using hidden Markov models.

ABSTRACT: Infectious disease management relies on accurate characterization of disease progression so that transmission can be prevented. Slowly progressing infectious diseases can be difficult to characterize because of a latency period between the time an individual is infected and when they show clinical signs of disease. The introduction of Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis (MAP), the cause of Johne's disease, onto a dairy farm could be undetected by farmers for years before any animal shows clinical signs of disease. In this time period infected animals may shed thousands of colony forming units. Parameterizing trajectories through disease states from infection to clinical disease can help farmers to develop control programs based on targeting individual disease state, potentially reducing both transmission and production losses due to disease. We suspect that there are two distinct progression pathways; one where animals progress to a high-shedding disease state, and another where animals maintain a low-level of shedding without clinical disease. We fit continuous-time hidden Markov models to multi-year longitudinal fecal sampling data from three US dairy farms, and estimated model parameters using a modified Baum-Welch expectation maximization algorithm. Using posterior decoding, we observed two distinct shedding patterns: cows that had observations associated with a high-shedding disease state, and cows that did not. This model framework can be employed prospectively to determine which cows are likely to progress to clinical disease and may be applied to characterize disease progression of other slowly progressing infectious diseases.

SUBMITTER: Ceres KM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7678993 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Characterizing infectious disease progression through discrete states using hidden Markov models.

Ceres Kristina M KM Schukken Ynte H YH Gröhn Yrjö T YT

PloS one 20201120 11

Infectious disease management relies on accurate characterization of disease progression so that transmission can be prevented. Slowly progressing infectious diseases can be difficult to characterize because of a latency period between the time an individual is infected and when they show clinical signs of disease. The introduction of Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis (MAP), the cause of Johne's disease, onto a dairy farm could be undetected by farmers for years before any animal shows c ...[more]

PMID: 33216809

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Project description:BackgroundRiboswitches are a type of noncoding RNA that regulate gene expression by switching from one structural conformation to another on ligand binding. The various classes of riboswitches discovered so far are differentiated by the ligand, which on binding induces a conformational switch. Every class of riboswitch is characterized by an aptamer domain, which provides the site for ligand binding, and an expression platform that undergoes conformational change on ligand binding. The sequence and structure of the aptamer domain is highly conserved in riboswitches belonging to the same class. We propose a method for fast and accurate identification of riboswitches using profile Hidden Markov Models (pHMM). Our method exploits the high degree of sequence conservation that characterizes the aptamer domain.ResultsOur method can detect riboswitches in genomic databases rapidly and accurately. Its sensitivity is comparable to the method based on the Covariance Model (CM). For six out of ten riboswitch classes, our method detects more than 99.5% of the candidates identified by the much slower CM method while being several hundred times faster. For three riboswitch classes, our method detects 97-99% of the candidates relative to the CM method. Our method works very well for those classes of riboswitches that are characterized by distinct and conserved sequence motifs.ConclusionRiboswitches play a crucial role in controlling the expression of several prokaryotic genes involved in metabolism and transport processes. As more and more new classes of riboswitches are being discovered, it is important to understand the patterns of their intra and inter genomic distribution. Understanding such patterns will enable us to better understand the evolutionary history of these genetic regulatory elements. However, a complete picture of the distribution pattern of riboswitches will emerge only after accurate identification of riboswitches across genomes. We believe that the riboswitch detection method developed in this paper will aid in that process. The significant advantage in terms of speed, of our pHMM-based approach over the method based on CM allows us to scan entire databases (rather than 5'UTRs only) in a relatively short period of time in order to accurately identify riboswitch candidates.

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Characterizing infectious disease progression through discrete states using hidden Markov models.

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Characterizing infectious disease progression through discrete states using hidden Markov models.

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