Dataset Information

A case-crossover analysis of the relationship of air pollution with out-of-hospital sudden unexpected death in Wake County, North Carolina (2013-2015).

ABSTRACT: Out-of-hospital sudden unexpected deaths are non-accidental deaths that occur without obvious underlying causes and may account for 10% of natural deaths before age 65. Short-term exposure to ambient air pollution is associated with all-cause (non-accidental) and cause-specific (e.g., cardiovascular) mortality, and with immediate exposures often yielding the highest magnitude risk estimates. Few studies have focused on short-term exposure to air pollution and sudden unexpected deaths. Using the University of North Carolina Sudden Unexpected Death in North Carolina population, we examine associations between short-term criteria air pollutant exposures with sudden unexpected deaths using a time-stratified case-crossover design, with data on criteria air pollutants from the Environmental Protection Agency's Air Quality System. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using conditional logistic regression with air pollutant exposures scaled to roughly inter-quartile ranges; models were adjusted for average temperature and relative humidity on event day and preceding 3?days. Potential for confounding by co-pollutants were examined in two pollutant models. ORs for PM_2.5 at lag day 1 were elevated (adjusted OR for 5??g/m³ increase: 1.17 (0.98, 1.40)), and were robust to co-pollutant adjustment. Elevated odds were observed for SO₂ at lag day 0, and reduced odds for O₃ at lag day 0; however, these associations were somewhat attenuated toward the null (SO₂) or were not robust (O₃) to co-pollutant adjustment. This analysis in a racially and socioeconomically diverse cohort, with a more inclusive definition of sudden unexpected death than is typically employed offers evidence that PM_2.5 may be a clinically relevant trigger of sudden unexpected deaths in susceptible individuals.

SUBMITTER: Rappazzo KM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6876709 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

A case-crossover analysis of the relationship of air pollution with out-of-hospital sudden unexpected death in Wake County, North Carolina (2013-2015).

Rappazzo Kristen M KM Joodi Golsa G Hoffman Sarah R SR Pursell Irion W IW Mounsey J Paul JP Cascio Wayne E WE Simpson Ross J RJ

The Science of the total environment 20190802

Out-of-hospital sudden unexpected deaths are non-accidental deaths that occur without obvious underlying causes and may account for 10% of natural deaths before age 65. Short-term exposure to ambient air pollution is associated with all-cause (non-accidental) and cause-specific (e.g., cardiovascular) mortality, and with immediate exposures often yielding the highest magnitude risk estimates. Few studies have focused on short-term exposure to air pollution and sudden unexpected deaths. Using the ...[more]

PMID: 31756798

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Project description:BackgroundThe incidence of sudden unexpected infant death (SUID) in the United States has persisted at roughly the same level since the mid-2000s, despite intensive prevention efforts around safe sleep. Disparities in outcomes across racial and socioeconomic lines also persist. These disparities are reflected in the spatial distribution of cases across neighborhoods. Strategies for prevention should be targeted precisely in space and time to further reduce SUID and correct disparities.ObjectiveWe sought to aid neighborhood-level prevention efforts by characterizing communities where SUID occurred in Cook County, IL, from 2015 to 2019 and predicting where it would occur in 2021-2025 using a semiautomated, reproducible workflow based on open-source software and data.MethodsThis cross-sectional retrospective study queried geocoded medical examiner data from 2015-2019 to identify SUID cases in Cook County, IL, and aggregated them to "communities" as the unit of analysis. We compared demographic factors in communities affected by SUID versus those unaffected using Wilcoxon rank sum statistical testing. We used social vulnerability indicators from 2014 to train a negative binomial prediction model for SUID case counts in each given community for 2015-2019. We applied indicators from 2020 to the trained model to make predictions for 2021-2025.ResultsValidation of our query of medical examiner data produced 325 finalized cases with a sensitivity of 95% (95% CI 93%-97%) and a specificity of 98% (95% CI 94%-100%). Case counts at the community level ranged from a minimum of 0 to a maximum of 17. A map of SUID case counts showed clusters of communities in the south and west regions of the county. All communities with the highest case counts were located within Chicago city limits. Communities affected by SUID exhibited lower median proportions of non-Hispanic White residents at 17% versus 60% (P<.001) and higher median proportions of non-Hispanic Black residents at 32% versus 3% (P<.001). Our predictive model showed moderate accuracy when assessed on the training data (Nagelkerke R2=70.2% and RMSE=17.49). It predicted Austin (17 cases), Englewood (14 cases), Auburn Gresham (12 cases), Chicago Lawn (12 cases), and South Shore (11 cases) would have the largest case counts between 2021 and 2025.ConclusionsSharp racial and socioeconomic disparities in SUID incidence persisted within Cook County from 2015 to 2019. Our predictive model and maps identify precise regions within the county for local health departments to target for intervention. Other jurisdictions can adapt our coding workflows and data sources to predict which of their own communities will be most affected by SUID.

Dataset Information

A case-crossover analysis of the relationship of air pollution with out-of-hospital sudden unexpected death in Wake County, North Carolina (2013-2015).

Publications

A case-crossover analysis of the relationship of air pollution with out-of-hospital sudden unexpected death in Wake County, North Carolina (2013-2015).

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