Dataset Information

Forecasting type-specific seasonal influenza after 26 weeks in the United States using influenza activities in other countries.

ABSTRACT: To identify countries that have seasonal patterns similar to the time series of influenza surveillance data in the United States and other countries, and to forecast the 2018-2019 seasonal influenza outbreak in the U.S., we collected the surveillance data of 164 countries using the FluNet database, search queries from Google Trends, and temperature from 2010 to 2018. Data for influenza-like illness (ILI) in the U.S. were collected from the Fluview database. We identified the time lag between two time-series which were weekly surveillances for ILI, total influenza (Total INF), influenza A (INF A), and influenza B (INF B) viruses between two countries using cross-correlation analysis. In order to forecast ILI, Total INF, INF A, and INF B of next season (after 26 weeks) in the U.S., we developed prediction models using linear regression, auto regressive integrated moving average, and an artificial neural network (ANN). As a result of cross-correlation analysis between the countries located in northern and southern hemisphere, the seasonal influenza patterns in Australia and Chile showed a high correlation with those of the U.S. 22 weeks and 28 weeks earlier, respectively. The R2 score of ANN models for ILI for validation set in 2015-2019 was 0.758 despite how hard it is to forecast 26 weeks ahead. Our prediction models forecast that the ILI for the U.S. in 2018-2019 may be later and less severe than those in 2017-2018, judging from the influenza activity for Australia and Chile in 2018. It allows to estimate peak timing, peak intensity, and type-specific influenza activities for next season at 40th week. The correlation between seasonal influenza patterns in the U.S., Australia, and Chile could be used to forecast the next seasonal influenza pattern, which can help to determine influenza vaccine strategy approximately six months ahead in the U.S.

SUBMITTER: Choi SB

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6876883 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Forecasting type-specific seasonal influenza after 26 weeks in the United States using influenza activities in other countries.

Choi Soo Beom SB Kim Juhyeon J Ahn Insung I

PloS one 20191125 11

To identify countries that have seasonal patterns similar to the time series of influenza surveillance data in the United States and other countries, and to forecast the 2018-2019 seasonal influenza outbreak in the U.S., we collected the surveillance data of 164 countries using the FluNet database, search queries from Google Trends, and temperature from 2010 to 2018. Data for influenza-like illness (ILI) in the U.S. were collected from the Fluview database. We identified the time lag between two ...[more]

PMID: 31765386

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Project description:BackgroundIn temperate regions, influenza epidemics occur annually with the highest activity occurring during the winter months. While seasonal dynamics of the influenza virus, such as time of onset and circulating strains, are well documented by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Influenza Surveillance System, an accurate prediction of timing, magnitude, and composition of circulating strains of seasonal influenza remains elusive. To facilitate public health preparedness for seasonal influenza and to obtain better insights into the spatiotemporal behavior of emerging strains, it is important to develop measurable characteristics of seasonal oscillation and to quantify the relationships between those parameters on a spatial scale. The objectives of our research were to examine the seasonality of influenza on a national and state level as well as the relationship between peak timing and intensity of influenza in the United States older adult population.Methodology/principal findingsA total of 248,889 hospitalization records were extracted from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services for the influenza seasons 1991-2004. Harmonic regression models were used to quantify the peak timing and absolute intensity for each of the 48 contiguous states and Washington, DC. We found that individual influenza seasons showed spatial synchrony with consistent late or early timing occurring across all 48 states during each influenza season in comparison to the overall average. On a national level, seasons that had an earlier peak also had higher rates of influenza (r(s) = -0.5). We demonstrated a spatial trend in peak timing of influenza; western states such as Nevada, Utah, and California peaked earlier and New England States such as Rhode Island, Maine, and New Hampshire peaked later.Conclusions/significanceOur findings suggest that a systematic description of influenza seasonal patterns is a valuable tool for disease surveillance and can facilitate strategies for prevention of severe disease in the vulnerable, older adult population.

Dataset Information

Forecasting type-specific seasonal influenza after 26 weeks in the United States using influenza activities in other countries.

Publications

Forecasting type-specific seasonal influenza after 26 weeks in the United States using influenza activities in other countries.

Similar Datasets

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