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The exacerbation of Ebola outbreaks by conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

ABSTRACT: The interplay between civil unrest and disease transmission is not well understood. Violence targeting healthcare workers and Ebola treatment centers in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has been thwarting the case isolation, treatment, and vaccination efforts. The extent to which conflict impedes public health response and contributes to incidence has not previously been evaluated. We construct a timeline of conflict events throughout the course of the epidemic and provide an ethnographic appraisal of the local conditions that preceded and followed conflict events. Informed by temporal incidence and conflict data as well as the ethnographic evidence, we developed a model of Ebola transmission and control to assess the impact of conflict on the epidemic in the eastern DRC from April 30, 2018, to June 23, 2019. We found that both the rapidity of case isolation and the population-level effectiveness of vaccination varied notably as a result of preceding unrest and subsequent impact of conflict events. Furthermore, conflict events were found to reverse an otherwise declining phase of the epidemic trajectory. Our model framework can be extended to other infectious diseases in the same and other regions of the world experiencing conflict and violence.

SUBMITTER: Wells CR

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6883813 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The exacerbation of Ebola outbreaks by conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Wells Chad R CR Pandey Abhishek A Ndeffo Mbah Martial L ML Gaüzère Bernard-A BA Malvy Denis D Singer Burton H BH Galvani Alison P AP

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20191021 48

The interplay between civil unrest and disease transmission is not well understood. Violence targeting healthcare workers and Ebola treatment centers in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has been thwarting the case isolation, treatment, and vaccination efforts. The extent to which conflict impedes public health response and contributes to incidence has not previously been evaluated. We construct a timeline of conflict events throughout the course of the epidemic and provide an ethnograp ...[more]

PMID: 31636188

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Project description:BackgroundReducing Ebola virus transmission relies on the ability to identify cases and limit contact with infected bodily fluids through biosecurity, safe sex practices, safe burial and vaccination. Armed conflicts can complicate outbreak detection and interventions due to widespread disruption to governments and populations. Guinea and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) have historically reported the largest and the most recent Ebola virus outbreaks. Understanding if conflict played a role in these outbreaks may help in identifying key risks factors to improve disease control.MethodsWe used data from a range of publicly available data sources for both Ebola virus cases and conflict events from 2018 to 2021 in Guinea and the DRC. We fitted these data to conditional logistic regression models using the Self-Controlled Case Series methodology to evaluate the magnitude in which conflict increased the risk of reported Ebola virus cases in terms of incidence rate ratio. We re-ran the analysis sub-nationally, by conflict sub-event type and tested any lagged effects.ResultsConflict was significantly associated with an increased risk of reported Ebola virus cases in both the DRC and Guinea in recent outbreaks. The effect was of a similar magnitude at 1.88- and 1.98-times increased risk for the DRC and Guinea, respectively. The greatest effects (often higher than the national values) were found in many conflict prone areas and during protest/riot-related conflict events. Conflict was influential in terms of Ebola virus risk from 1 week following the event and remained important by 10 weeks.ConclusionExtra vigilance is needed following protests and riot-related conflict events in terms of Ebola virus transmission. These events are highly disruptive, in terms of access to transportation and healthcare and are often in urban areas with high population densities. Additional public health messaging around these types of conflict events, relating to the risks and clinical symptoms may be helpful in reducing transmission. Future work should aim to further understand and quantify conflict severity and intensity, to evaluate dose-response relationships in terms of disease risk.

Project description:BackgroundThe 2018-2019 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in North Kivu and Ituri provinces in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is the largest ever recorded in the DRC. It has been declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. The outbreak emerged in a region of chronic conflict and insecurity, and directed attacks against health care workers may have interfered with disease response activities. Our study characterizes and quantifies the broader conflict dynamics over the course of the outbreak by pairing epidemiological and all available spatial conflict data.MethodsWe build a set of conflict variables by mapping the spatial locations of all conflict events and their associated deaths in each of the affected health zones in North Kivu and Ituri, eastern DRC, before and during the outbreak. Using these data, we compare patterns of conflict before and during the outbreak in affected health zones and those not affected. We then test whether conflict is correlated with increased EVD transmission at the health zone level.FindingsThe incidence of conflict events per capita is ~ 600 times more likely in Ituri and North Kivu than for the rest of the DRC. We identified 15 time periods of substantial uninterrupted transmission across 11 health zones and a total of 120 bi-weeks. We do not find significant short-term associations between the bi-week reproduction numbers and the number of conflicts. However, we do find that the incidence of conflict per capita was correlated with the incidence of EVD per capita at the health zone level for the entire outbreak (Pearson's r = 0.33, 95% CI 0.05-0.57). In the two provinces, the monthly number of conflict events also increased by a factor of 2.7 in Ebola-affected health zones (p value < 0.05) compared to 2.0 where no transmission was reported and 1.3 in the rest of the DRC, in the period between February 2019 and July 2019.ConclusionWe characterized the association between variables documenting broad conflict levels and EVD transmission. Such assessment is important to understand if and how such conflict variables could be used to inform the outbreak response. We found that while these variables can help characterize long-term challenges and susceptibilities of the different regions they provide little insight on the short-term dynamics of EVD transmission.

Dataset Information

The exacerbation of Ebola outbreaks by conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Publications

The exacerbation of Ebola outbreaks by conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

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