Dataset Information

Dynamics of conflict during the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo 2018-2019.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The 2018-2019 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in North Kivu and Ituri provinces in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is the largest ever recorded in the DRC. It has been declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. The outbreak emerged in a region of chronic conflict and insecurity, and directed attacks against health care workers may have interfered with disease response activities. Our study characterizes and quantifies the broader conflict dynamics over the course of the outbreak by pairing epidemiological and all available spatial conflict data.

Methods

We build a set of conflict variables by mapping the spatial locations of all conflict events and their associated deaths in each of the affected health zones in North Kivu and Ituri, eastern DRC, before and during the outbreak. Using these data, we compare patterns of conflict before and during the outbreak in affected health zones and those not affected. We then test whether conflict is correlated with increased EVD transmission at the health zone level.

Findings

The incidence of conflict events per capita is ~?600 times more likely in Ituri and North Kivu than for the rest of the DRC. We identified 15 time periods of substantial uninterrupted transmission across 11 health zones and a total of 120 bi-weeks. We do not find significant short-term associations between the bi-week reproduction numbers and the number of conflicts. However, we do find that the incidence of conflict per capita was correlated with the incidence of EVD per capita at the health zone level for the entire outbreak (Pearson's r?=?0.33, 95% CI 0.05-0.57). In the two provinces, the monthly number of conflict events also increased by a factor of 2.7 in Ebola-affected health zones (p value ConclusionWe characterized the association between variables documenting broad conflict levels and EVD transmission. Such assessment is important to understand if and how such conflict variables could be used to inform the outbreak response. We found that while these variables can help characterize long-term challenges and susceptibilities of the different regions they provide little insight on the short-term dynamics of EVD transmission.

SUBMITTER: Kraemer MUG

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7184697 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Dynamics of conflict during the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo 2018-2019.

Kraemer Moritz U G MUG Pigott David M DM Hill Sarah C SC Vanderslott Samantha S Reiner Robert C RC Stasse Stephanie S Brownstein John S JS Gutierrez Bernardo B Dennig Francis F Hay Simon I SI Wint G R William GRW Pybus Oliver G OG Castro Marcia C MC Vinck Patrick P Pham Phuong N PN Nilles Eric J EJ Cauchemez Simon S

BMC medicine 20200427 1

<h4>Background</h4>The 2018-2019 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in North Kivu and Ituri provinces in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is the largest ever recorded in the DRC. It has been declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. The outbreak emerged in a region of chronic conflict and insecurity, and directed attacks against health care workers may have interfered with disease response activities. Our study characterizes and quantifies the broader conflict dynami ...[more]

PMID: 32336281

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Project description:BackgroundA protracted Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) epidemic in the eastern Ituri, North and South Kivu provinces of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) caused 3470 confirmed and probable cases between July 2018 and April 2020. During the epidemic, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) supported the DRC Red Cross and other local actors to offer safe and dignified burials (SDB) for suspected and confirmed EVD cases, so as to reduce transmission associated with infectious dead bodies. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of the SDB service's performance in order to inform future applications of this intervention.MethodsWe analysed data on individual SDB responses to quantify performance based on key indicators and against pre-specified service standards. Specifically, we defined SDB timeliness as response within 24 h and success as all components of the service being implemented. Combining the database with other information sources, we also fit generalised linear mixed binomial models to explore factors associated with unsuccessful SDB.ResultsOut of 14,624 requests for SDB, 99% were responded to, 89% within 24 h. Overall, 61% of SDBs were successful, somewhat below target (80%), with failures clustered during a high-insecurity period. Factors associated with increased odds of unsuccessful SDB included reported community and/or family nonacceptance, insecurity and suspensions of the EVD response, low health facility coverage and high coverage of radio and telephony. Burials supported by mobile Civil Protection (local authorities) and/or static, community-based 'harm reduction' teams were associated with lower odds of failure.ConclusionsA large-scale, timely and moderately performant SDB service proved feasible during the challenging eastern DRC EVD response. Burial teams that are managed by community actors and operate locally, and supported rather than owned by the Red Cross or other humanitarian organisations, are a promising modality of delivering this pillar of EVD control.

Project description:BackgroundThe second largest Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak began in the Democratic Republic of Congo in July 2018 in North Kivu Province. Data suggest the outbreak is not epidemiologically linked to the 2018 outbreak in Equateur Province, and that independent introduction of Ebola virus (EBOV) into humans occurred. We tested for antibodies to ebolaviruses in febrile patients seeking care in North Kivu Province prior to the EVD outbreak.MethodsPatients were enrolled between May 2017 and April 2018, before the declared start of the outbreak in eastern DRC. Questionnaires were administered to collect demographic and behavioural information to identify risk factors for exposure. Biological samples were evaluated for ebolavirus nucleic acid, and for antibodies to ebolaviruses. Prevalence of exposure was calculated, and demographic factors evaluated for associations with ebolavirus serostatus.ResultsSamples were collected and tested from 272 people seeking care in the Rutshuru Health Zone in North Kivu Province. All patients were negative for filoviruses by PCR. Intial screening by indirect ELISA found that 30 people were reactive to EBOV-rGP. Results were supported by detection of ebolavirus reactive linear peptides using the Serochip platform. Differential screening of all reactive serum samples against the rGP of all six ebolaviruses and Marburg virus (MARV) showed that 29 people exhibited the strongest reactivity to EBOV and one to Bombali virus (BOMV), and western blotting confirmed results. Titers ranged from 1:100 to 1:12,800. Although both sexes and all ages tested positive for antibodies, women were significantly more likely to be positive and the majority of positives were in February 2018.ConclusionsWe provide the first documented evidence of exposure to Ebola virus in people in eastern DRC. We detected antibodies to EBOV in 10% of febrile patients seeking healthcare prior to the declaration of the 2018-2020 outbreak, suggesting early cases may have been missed or exposure ocurred without associated illness. We also report the first known detection of antibodies to BOMV, previously detected in bats in West and East Africa, and show that human exposure to BOMV has occurred. Our data suggest human exposure to ebolaviruses may be more frequent and geographically widespread.

Dataset Information

Dynamics of conflict during the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo 2018-2019.

Background

Methods

Findings

Publications

Dynamics of conflict during the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo 2018-2019.

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