Dataset Information

Seasonality modeling of the distribution of Aedes albopictus in China based on climatic and environmental suitability.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Aedes albopictus is a highly invasive mosquito species and a major vector of numerous viral pathogens. Many recent dengue fever outbreaks in China have been caused solely by the vector. Mapping of the potential distribution ranges of Ae. albopictus is crucial for epidemic preparedness and the monitoring of vector populations for disease control. Climate is a key factor influencing the distribution of the species. Despite field studies indicating seasonal population variations, very little modeling work has been done to analyze how environmental conditions influence the seasonality of Ae. albopictus. The aim of the present study was to develop a model based on available observations, climatic and environmental data, and machine learning methods for the prediction of the potential seasonal ranges of Ae. albopictus in China.

Methods

We collected comprehensive up-to-date surveillance data in China, particularly records from the northern distribution margin of Ae. albopictus. All records were assigned long-term (1970-2000) climatic data averages based on the WorldClim 2.0 data set. Machine learning regression tree models were developed using a 10-fold cross-validation method to predict the potential seasonal (or monthly) distribution ranges of Ae. albopictus in China at high resolution based on environmental conditions. The models were assessed based on sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy, using area under curve (AUC). WorldClim 2.0 and climatic and environmental data were used to produce environmental conduciveness (probability) prediction surfaces. Predicted probabilities were generated based on the averages of the 10 models.

Results

During 1998-2017, Ae. albopictus was observed at 200 out of the 242 localities surveyed. In addition, at least 15 new Ae. albopictus occurrence sites lay outside the potential ranges that have been predicted using models previously. The average accuracy was 98.4% (97.1-99.5%), and the average AUC was 99.1% (95.6-99.9%). The predicted Ae. albopictus distribution in winter (December-February) was limited to a small subtropical-tropical area of China, and Ae. albopictus was predicted to occur in northern China only during the short summer season (usually June-September). The predicted distribution areas in summer could reach northeastern China bordering Russia and the eastern part of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in southwestern China. Ae. albopictus could remain active in expansive areas from central to southern China in October and November.

Conclusions

Climate and environmental conditions are key factors influencing the seasonal distribution of Ae. albopictus in China. The areas predicted to potentially host Ae. albopictus seasonally in the present study could reach northeastern China and the eastern slope of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Our results present new evidence and suggest the expansion of systematic vector population monitoring activities and regular re-assessment of epidemic risk potential.

SUBMITTER: Zheng X

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6889612 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Seasonality modeling of the distribution of Aedes albopictus in China based on climatic and environmental suitability.

Zheng Xueli X Zhong Daibin D He Yulan Y Zhou Guofa G

Infectious diseases of poverty 20191203 1

<h4>Background</h4>Aedes albopictus is a highly invasive mosquito species and a major vector of numerous viral pathogens. Many recent dengue fever outbreaks in China have been caused solely by the vector. Mapping of the potential distribution ranges of Ae. albopictus is crucial for epidemic preparedness and the monitoring of vector populations for disease control. Climate is a key factor influencing the distribution of the species. Despite field studies indicating seasonal population variations, ...[more]

PMID: 31791409

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Project description:Aedes albopictus, the Asian Tiger Mosquito, vector of Chikungunya, Dengue Fever and Zika viruses, has proven its hardy adaptability in expansion from its natural Asian, forest edge, tree hole habitat on the back of international trade transportation, re-establishing in temperate urban surrounds, in a range of water receptacles and semi-enclosures of organic matter. Conventional aerial spray mosquito vector controls focus on wetland and stagnant water expanses, proven to miss the protected hollows and crevices favoured by Ae. albopictus. New control or eradication strategies are thus essential, particular in light of potential expansions in the southeastern and eastern USA. Successful regional vector control strategies require risk level analysis. Should strategies prioritize regions with non-climatic or climatic suitability parameters for Ae. albopictus? Our study used current Ae. albopictus distribution data to develop two independent models: (i) regions with suitable non-climatic factors, and (ii) regions with suitable climate for Ae. albopictus in southeastern USA. Non-climatic model processing used Evidential Belief Function (EBF), together with six geographical conditioning factors (raster data layers), to establish the probability index. Validation of the analysis results was estimated with area under the curve (AUC) using Ae. albopictus presence data. Climatic modeling was based on two General Circulation Models (GCMs), Miroc3.2 and CSIRO-MK30 running the RCP 8.5 scenario in MaxEnt software. EBF non-climatic model results achieved a 0.70 prediction rate and 0.73 success rate, confirming suitability of the study site regions for Ae. albopictus establishment. The climatic model results showed the best-fit model comprised Coldest Quarter Mean Temp, Precipitation of Wettest Quarter and Driest Quarter Precipitation factors with mean AUC value of 0.86. Both GCMs showed that the whole study site is highly suitable and will remain suitable climatically, according to the prediction for 2055, for Ae. albopictus expansion.

Project description:BACKGROUND:The global spread of mosquito-borne diseases (MBD) has presented increasing challenges to public health. The transmission of MBD is mainly attributable to the biting behaviors of female mosquitoes. However, the ecological pattern of hourly host-seeking behavior in Aedes albopictus and its association with climatic variables are still not well understood, especially for a precise requirement for establishing an effective risk prediction system of MBD transmission. METHODS:Mosquito samples and data on mosquito hourly density and site-specific climatic variables, including temperature, relative humidity, illuminance and wind speed, were collected simultaneously in urban outdoor environments in Guangzhou during 2016-2018. Kernel regression models were used to assess the temporal patterns of hourly host-seeking behavior in mosquito populations, and negative binomial regression models in the Bayesian framework were used to investigate the associations of host-seeking behavior with climatic variables. RESULTS:Aedes albopictus was abundant, constituting 82% (5569/6790) of the total collected mosquitoes. Host-seeking behavior in Ae. albopictus varied across time and was significantly influenced by climatic variables. The predicted hourly mosquito densities showed non-linear relationships with temperature and illuminance, whereas density increased with relative humidity but generally decreased with wind speed. The range of temperature estimates for female biting was 16.4-37.1 °C, peaking at 26.5 °C (95% credible interval: 25.3-28.1). During the favorable periods, biting behavior of female Ae. albopictus was estimated to occur frequently all day long, presenting a bimodal distribution with peaks within 2-3 h around both dawn and dusk (05:00-08:00 h and 16:00-19:00 h). Moreover, a short-term association in hourly density between the females and males was found. CONCLUSIONS:Our field-based modeling study reveals that hourly host-seeking behavior of Ae. albopictus exhibits a complex pattern, with hourly variation constrained significantly by climatic variables. These findings lay a foundation for improving MBD risk assessments as well as practical strategies for vector control. For instances of all-day-long frequent female biting during the favorable periods in Guangzhou, effective integrated mosquito control measures must be taken throughout the day and night.

Project description:BackgroundAedes albopictus is an indigenous primary vector for dengue and Zika viruses in China. Compared with its insecticide resistance, biology and vector competence, little is known about its genetic variation, which corresponds to environmental variations. Thus, the present study examines how Ae. albopictus varies among different climatic regions in China and deciphers its potential dispersal patterns.MethodsThe genetic variation and population structure of 17 Ae. albopictus populations collected from three climatic regions of China were investigated with 11 microsatellite loci and the mitochondrial coxI gene.ResultsOf 44 isolated microsatellite markers, 11 pairs were chosen for genotyping analysis and had an average PIC value of 0.713, representing high polymorphism. The number of alleles was high in each population, with the ne value increasing from the temperate region (3.876) to the tropical region (4.144). Twenty-five coxI haplotypes were detected, and the highest diversity was observed in the tropical region. The mean Ho value (ca. 0.557) of all the regions was significantly lower than the mean He value (ca. 0.684), with nearly all populations significantly departing from HWE and displaying significant population expansion (p value < 0.05). Two genetically isolated groups and three haplotype clades were evaluated via STRUCTURE and haplotype phylogenetic analyses, and the tropical populations were significantly isolated from those in the other regions. Most genetic variation in Ae. albopictus was detected within populations and individuals at 31.40 and 63.04%, respectively, via the AMOVA test, and a relatively significant positive correlation was observed among only the temperate populations via IBD analysis (R2 = 0.6614, p = 0.048). Recent dispersions were observed among different Ae. albopictus populations, and four major migration trends with high gene flow (Nm > 0.4) were reconstructed between the tropical region and the other two regions. Environmental factors, especially temperature and rainfall, may be the leading causes of genetic diversity in different climatic regions.ConclusionsContinuous dispersion contributes to the genetic communication of Ae. albopictus populations across different climatic regions, and environmental factors, especially temperature and rainfall, may be the leading causes of genetic variation.

Dataset Information

Seasonality modeling of the distribution of Aedes albopictus in China based on climatic and environmental suitability.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Seasonality modeling of the distribution of Aedes albopictus in China based on climatic and environmental suitability.

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