Dataset Information

Weather effects on hand, foot, and mouth disease at individual level: a case-crossover study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) raises an urgent public health issue in the Asia-Pacific region, especially in China. The associations between weather factors and HFMD have been widely studied but with inconsistent results. Moreover, previous studies utilizing ecological design could not rule out the bias of exposure misclassification and unobserved confounders.

Methods

We used case-crossover analysis to assess the associations of weather factors on HFMD. Individual HFMD cases from 2009 to 2012 in Guangdong were collected and cases located within 10?km of the meteorological monitoring sites were included. Lag effects were examined through the previous 7?days. In addition, we explored the variability by changing the distance within 20?km and 30?km.

Results

We observed associations between HFMD and weather factors, including temperature and relative humidity. An approximately U-shaped relationship was observed for the associations of temperature on HFMD across the same day and the previous 7?days, while an approximately exponential-shaped was seen for relative humidity. Statistically significant increases in rates of HFMD were associated with each 10-unit increases in temperature [Excess rate (ER): 7.7%; 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 3.9, 11.7%] and relative humidity (ER: 1.9%; 95% CI: 0.7, 3.0%) on lag days 0-6, when assessing within 10?km of the monitoring sites. Potential thresholds for temperature (30.0?°C) and relative humidity (70.3%) detected showed associations with HFMD. The associations remained robust for 20?km and 30?km.

Conclusions

Our study found that temperature and relative humidity are significantly associated with the increased rates of HFMD. Thresholds and lag effects were observed between weather factors and HFMD. Our findings are useful for planning on targeted prevention and control of HFMD.

SUBMITTER: Du Z

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6891988 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Weather effects on hand, foot, and mouth disease at individual level: a case-crossover study.

Du Zhicheng Z Lin Shao S Marks Tia T Zhang Wangjian W Deng Te T Yu Shicheng S Hao Yuantao Y

BMC infectious diseases 20191203 1

<h4>Background</h4>Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) raises an urgent public health issue in the Asia-Pacific region, especially in China. The associations between weather factors and HFMD have been widely studied but with inconsistent results. Moreover, previous studies utilizing ecological design could not rule out the bias of exposure misclassification and unobserved confounders.<h4>Methods</h4>We used case-crossover analysis to assess the associations of weather factors on HFMD. Individua ...[more]

PMID: 31796004

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundThe past decade witnessed an increment in the incidence of hand foot mouth disease (HFMD) in the Pacific Asian region; specifically, in Guangzhou China. This emphasized the requirement of an early warning system designed to allow the medical community to better prepare for outbreaks and thus minimize the number of fatalities.MethodsSamples from 1,556 inpatients (hospitalized) and 11,004 outpatients (non-admitted) diagnosed with HFMD were collected in this study from January 2009 to October 2013. Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model was applied to establish high predictive model for inpatients and outpatient as well as three viral serotypes (EV71, Pan-EV and CA16). To integrate climate variables in the data analyses, data from eight climate variables were simultaneously obtained during this period. Significant climate variable identified by correlation analyses was executed to improve time series modeling as external repressors.ResultsAmong inpatients with HFMD, 248 (15.9%) were affected by EV71, 137 (8.8%) were affected by Pan-EV+, and 436 (28.0%) were affected by CA16. Optimal Univariate SARIMA model was identified: (2,0,3)(1,0,0)52 for inpatients, (0,1,0)(0,0,2)52 for outpatients as well as three serotypes (EV71, (1,0,1)(0,0,1)52; CA16, (1,0,1)(0,0,0)52; Pan-EV, (1,0,1)(0,0,0)52). Using climate as our independent variable, precipitation (PP) was first identified to be associated with inpatients (r = 0.211, P = 0.001), CA16-serotype (r = 0.171, P = 0.007) and outpatients (r = 0.214, P = 0.01) in partial correlation analyses, and was then shown a significant lag in cross-autocorrelation analyses. However, inclusion of PP [lag -3 week] as external repressor showed a moderate impact on the predictive performance of the SARIMA model described here-in.ConclusionClimate patterns and HFMD incidences have been shown to be strongly correlated. The SARIMA model developed here can be a helpful tool in developing an early warning system for HFMD.

Dataset Information

Weather effects on hand, foot, and mouth disease at individual level: a case-crossover study.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Weather effects on hand, foot, and mouth disease at individual level: a case-crossover study.

Similar Datasets

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