Dataset Information

The impact of vector migration on the effectiveness of strategies to control gambiense human African trypanosomiasis.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Several modeling studies have been undertaken to assess the feasibility of the WHO goal of eliminating gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (g-HAT) by 2030. However, these studies have generally overlooked the effect of vector migration on disease transmission and control. Here, we evaluated the impact of vector migration on the feasibility of interrupting transmission in different g-HAT foci.

Methods

We developed a g-HAT transmission model of a single tsetse population cluster that accounts for migration of tsetse fly into this population. We used a model calibration approach to constrain g-HAT incidence to ranges expected for high, moderate and low transmission settings, respectively. We used the model to evaluate the effectiveness of current intervention measures, including medical intervention through enhanced screening and treatment, and vector control, for interrupting g-HAT transmission in disease foci under each transmission setting.

Results

We showed that, in low transmission settings, under enhanced medical intervention alone, at least 70% treatment coverage is needed to interrupt g-HAT transmission within 10 years. In moderate transmission settings, a combination of medical intervention and a vector control measure with a daily tsetse mortality greater than 0.03 is required to achieve interruption of disease transmission within 10 years. In high transmission settings, interruption of disease transmission within 10 years requires a combination of at least 70% medical intervention coverage and at least 0.05 tsetse daily mortality rate from vector control. However, the probability of achieving elimination in high transmission settings decreases with an increased tsetse migration rate.

Conclusion

Our results suggest that the WHO 2030 goal of G-HAT elimination is, at least in theory, achievable. But the presence of tsetse migration may reduce the probability of interrupting g-HAT transmission in moderate and high transmission foci. Therefore, optimal vector control programs should incorporate monitoring and controlling of vector density in buffer areas around foci of g-HAT control efforts.

SUBMITTER: Ndeffo-Mbah ML

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6894748 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

The impact of vector migration on the effectiveness of strategies to control gambiense human African trypanosomiasis.

Ndeffo-Mbah Martial L ML Pandey Abhishek A Atkins Katherine E KE Aksoy Serap S Galvani Alison P AP

PLoS neglected tropical diseases 20191205 12

<h4>Background</h4>Several modeling studies have been undertaken to assess the feasibility of the WHO goal of eliminating gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (g-HAT) by 2030. However, these studies have generally overlooked the effect of vector migration on disease transmission and control. Here, we evaluated the impact of vector migration on the feasibility of interrupting transmission in different g-HAT foci.<h4>Methods</h4>We developed a g-HAT transmission model of a single tsetse populat ...[more]

PMID: 31805051

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Project description:BACKGROUND: Algorithms to diagnose gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (HAT, sleeping sickness) are often complex due to the unsatisfactory sensitivity and/or specificity of available tests, and typically include a screening (serological), confirmation (parasitological) and staging component. There is insufficient evidence on the relative accuracy of these algorithms. This paper presents estimates of the accuracy of five algorithms used by past Médecins Sans Frontières programmes in the Republic of Congo, Southern Sudan and Uganda. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The sequence of tests in each algorithm was programmed into a probabilistic model, informed by distributions of the sensitivity, specificity and staging accuracy of each test, constructed based on a literature review. The accuracy of algorithms was estimated in a baseline scenario and in a worst-case scenario introducing various near worst-case assumptions. In the baseline scenario, sensitivity was estimated as 85-90% in all but one algorithm, with specificity above 99.9% except for the Republic of Congo, where CATT serology was used as independent confirmation test: here, positive predictive value (PPV) was estimated at <50% in realistic active screening prevalence scenarios. Furthermore, most algorithms misclassified about one third of true stage 1 cases as stage 2, and about 10% of true stage 2 cases as stage 1. In the worst-case scenario, sensitivity was 75-90% and PPV no more than 75% at 1% prevalence, with about half of stage 1 cases misclassified as stage 2. CONCLUSIONS: Published evidence on the accuracy of widely used tests is scanty. Algorithms should carefully weigh the use of serology alone for confirmation, and could enhance sensitivity through serological suspect follow-up and repeat parasitology. Better evidence on the frequency of low-parasitaemia infections is needed. Simulation studies should guide the tailoring of algorithms to specific scenarios of HAT prevalence and availability of control tools.

Project description:Gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) is a virulent disease declining in burden but still endemic in West and Central Africa. Although it is targeted for elimination of transmission by 2030, there remain numerous questions about the drivers of infection and how these vary geographically. In this study we focus on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), which accounted for 84% of the global case burden in 2016, to explore changes in transmission across the country and elucidate factors which may have contributed to the persistence of disease or success of interventions in different regions. We present a Bayesian fitting methodology, applied to 168 endemic health zones (∼100,000 population size), which allows for calibration of a mechanistic gHAT model to case data (from the World Health Organization HAT Atlas) in an adaptive and automated framework. It was found that the model needed to capture improvements in passive detection to match observed trends in the data within former Bandundu and Bas Congo provinces indicating these regions have substantially reduced time to detection. Health zones in these provinces generally had longer burn-in periods during fitting due to additional model parameters. Posterior probability distributions were found for a range of fitted parameters in each health zone; these included the basic reproduction number estimates for pre-1998 (R0) which was inferred to be between 1 and 1.14, in line with previous gHAT estimates, with higher median values typically in health zones with more case reporting in the 2000s. Previously, it was not clear whether a fall in active case finding in the period contributed to the declining case numbers. The modelling here accounts for variable screening and suggests that underlying transmission has also reduced greatly-on average 96% in former Equateur, 93% in former Bas Congo and 89% in former Bandundu-Equateur and Bandundu having had the highest case burdens in 2000. This analysis also sets out a framework to enable future predictions for the country.

Project description:In mice, experimental infection with Trypanosoma brucei causes decreased bone marrow B-cell development, abolished splenic B-cell maturation and loss of antibody mediated protection including vaccine induced memory responses. Nothing is known about this phenomenon in human African trypanosomiasis (HAT), but if occurring, it would imply the need of revaccination of HAT patients after therapy and abolish hope for a HAT vaccine. The effect of gambiense HAT on peripheral blood memory T- and B-cells and on innate and vaccine induced antibody levels was examined. The percentage of memory B- and T-cells was quantified in peripheral blood, prospectively collected in DR Congo from 117 Trypanosoma brucei gambiense infected HAT patients before and six months after treatment and 117 controls at the same time points. Antibodies against carbohydrate antigens on red blood cells and against measles were quantified. Before treatment, significantly higher percentages of memory B-cells, mainly T-independent memory B-cells, were observed in HAT patients compared to controls (CD20+CD27+IgM+, 13.0% versus 2.0%, p<0.001). The percentage of memory T-cells, mainly early effector/memory T-cells, was higher in HAT (CD3+CD45RO+CD27+, 19.4% versus 16.7%, p = 0.003). After treatment, the percentage of memory T-cells normalized, the percentage of memory B-cells did not. The median anti-red blood cell carbohydrate IgM level was one titer lower in HAT patients than in controls (p<0.004), and partially normalized after treatment. Anti-measles antibody concentrations were lower in HAT patients than in controls (medians of 1500 versus 2250 mIU/ml, p = 0.02), and remained so after treatment, but were above the cut-off level assumed to provide protection in 94.8% of HAT patients, before and after treatment (versus 98.3% of controls, p = 0.3). Although functionality of the B-cells was not verified, the results suggest that immunity was conserved in T.b. gambiense infected HAT patients and that B-cell dysfunction might not be that severe as in mouse models.

Dataset Information

The impact of vector migration on the effectiveness of strategies to control gambiense human African trypanosomiasis.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

The impact of vector migration on the effectiveness of strategies to control gambiense human African trypanosomiasis.

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