Dataset Information

Risk scores for type 2 diabetes mellitus in Latin America: a systematic review of population-based studies.

ABSTRACT:

Aim

To summarize the evidence on diabetes risk scores for Latin American populations.

Methods

A systematic review was conducted (CRD42019122306) looking for diagnostic and prognostic models for type 2 diabetes mellitus among randomly selected adults in Latin America. Five databases (LILACS, Scopus, MEDLINE, Embase and Global Health) were searched. type 2 diabetes mellitus was defined using at least one blood biomarker and the reports needed to include information on the development and/or validation of a multivariable regression model. Risk of bias was assessed using the PROBAST guidelines.

Results

Of the 1500 reports identified, 11 were studied in detail and five were included in the qualitative analysis. Two reports were from Mexico, two from Peru and one from Brazil. The number of diabetes cases varied from 48 to 207 in the derivations models, and between 29 and 582 in the validation models. The most common predictors were age, waist circumference and family history of diabetes, and only one study used oral glucose tolerance test as the outcome. The discrimination performance across studies was ~ 70% (range: 66-72%) as per the area under the receiving-operator curve, the highest metric was always the negative predictive value. Sensitivity was always higher than specificity.

Conclusion

There is no evidence to support the use of one risk score throughout Latin America. The development, validation and implementation of risk scores should be a research and public health priority in Latin America to improve type 2 diabetes mellitus screening and prevention.

SUBMITTER: Carrillo-Larco RM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6900051 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Risk scores for type 2 diabetes mellitus in Latin America: a systematic review of population-based studies.

Carrillo-Larco R M RM Aparcana-Granda D J DJ Mejia J R JR Barengo N C NC Bernabe-Ortiz A A

Diabetic medicine : a journal of the British Diabetic Association 20190906 12

<h4>Aim</h4>To summarize the evidence on diabetes risk scores for Latin American populations.<h4>Methods</h4>A systematic review was conducted (CRD42019122306) looking for diagnostic and prognostic models for type 2 diabetes mellitus among randomly selected adults in Latin America. Five databases (LILACS, Scopus, MEDLINE, Embase and Global Health) were searched. type 2 diabetes mellitus was defined using at least one blood biomarker and the reports needed to include information on the developmen ...[more]

PMID: 31441090

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Project description:BackgroundGiven that most evidence-based recommendations for managing type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) are generated in high-income settings, significant challenges for their implementation exist in Latin America and the Caribbean region (LAC), where the rates of T2DM and related mortality are increasing. The aim of this study is to identify the facilitators and barriers to successful management of T2DM in LAC, from the perspectives of patients, their families or caregivers, healthcare professionals, and/or other stakeholders.MethodsWe conducted a systematic review in MEDLINE, Web of Science, SciELO, and LILACS. We included studies of disease management, prevention of complications and risk factor management. We qualitatively synthesized the verbatim text referring to barriers and/or facilitators of diabetes management according to the Theoretical Domain Framework and described their relative frequencies.FindingsWe included 60 studies from 1,595 records identified. 54 studies (90%) identified factors related to the environmental context and resources, highlighting the importance of questions related to health care access or lack of resources in the health system, and the environmental context and living conditions of the patients. Issues related to "social influences" (40 studies) and "social/professional role and identity" (37 studies) were also frequently addressed, indicating the negative impact of lack of support from family and friends and clinicians' paternalistic attitude. 25 studies identified patients beliefs as important barriers, identifying issues such as a lack of patients' trust in the effectiveness of the medication and/or the doctor's advice, or preferences for alternative therapies.ConclusionsSuccessful diabetes management in LAC is highly dependent on factors that are beyond the control of the individual patients. Successful disease control will require emphasis on public policies to reinforce health care access and resources, the promotion of a patient-centred care approach, and health promoting infrastructures at environmental level.

Project description:BACKGROUND:National pediatric vaccination programs have been introduced in Latin America (LatAm) to reduce the burden of diseases due to pathogens such as rotavirus, Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) and pneumococcus. Vaccination health benefits may extend to unvaccinated populations by reducing pathogen transmission. Understanding herd effect is important for implementation and assessment of vaccination programs. The objective was to conduct a systematic review of published epidemiological evidence of herd effect with Hib, rotavirus and pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV) in LatAm. METHODS:Searches were conducted in PubMed, Virtual Health Library (VHL), SciELO and SCOPUS databases, for studies reporting data on herd effect from Hib, rotavirus and PCV vaccination in LatAm, without age restriction. Searches were limited to articles published in English, Spanish or Portuguese (1990-2016). After screening and full-text review, articles meeting the selection criteria were included to be critically appraised following criteria for observational and interventional studies. The presence of a herd effect was defined as a significant decrease in incidence of disease, hospitalization, or mortality. RESULTS:3,465 unique articles were identified, and 23 were included (Hib vaccine n = 5, PCV n = 8, rotavirus vaccine n = 10). Most studies included children and/or adolescents (age range varied between studies). Studies in adults, including older adults (aged > 65 years), were limited. Few studies reported statistically significant reductions in disease incidence in age groups not targeted for vaccination. Hib-confirmed meningitis hospitalization decreased in children but herd effect could not be quantified. Some evidence of herd effect was identified for PCV and rotavirus vaccine in unvaccinated children. Evidence for herd effects due to PCV in adults was limited. CONCLUSION:After introduction of Hib, PCV and rotavirus vaccination in LatAm, reductions in morbidity/mortality have been reported in children not targeted for vaccination. However, due to methodological limitations (e.g. short post-vaccination periods and age range studied), there is currently insufficient evidence to quantify the herd effect in adult populations. More research and higher quality surveillance is needed to characterize herd effect of these vaccines in LatAm.

Project description:ObjectiveTo evaluate current risk models and scores for type 2 diabetes and inform selection and implementation of these in practice.DesignSystematic review using standard (quantitative) and realist (mainly qualitative) methodology. Inclusion criteria Papers in any language describing the development or external validation, or both, of models and scores to predict the risk of an adult developing type 2 diabetes.Data sourcesMedline, PreMedline, Embase, and Cochrane databases were searched. Included studies were citation tracked in Google Scholar to identify follow-on studies of usability or impact.Data extractionData were extracted on statistical properties of models, details of internal or external validation, and use of risk scores beyond the studies that developed them. Quantitative data were tabulated to compare model components and statistical properties. Qualitative data were analysed thematically to identify mechanisms by which use of the risk model or score might improve patient outcomes.Results8864 titles were scanned, 115 full text papers considered, and 43 papers included in the final sample. These described the prospective development or validation, or both, of 145 risk prediction models and scores, 94 of which were studied in detail here. They had been tested on 6.88 million participants followed for up to 28 years. Heterogeneity of primary studies precluded meta-analysis. Some but not all risk models or scores had robust statistical properties (for example, good discrimination and calibration) and had been externally validated on a different population. Genetic markers added nothing to models over clinical and sociodemographic factors. Most authors described their score as "simple" or "easily implemented," although few were specific about the intended users and under what circumstances. Ten mechanisms were identified by which measuring diabetes risk might improve outcomes. Follow-on studies that applied a risk score as part of an intervention aimed at reducing actual risk in people were sparse.ConclusionMuch work has been done to develop diabetes risk models and scores, but most are rarely used because they require tests not routinely available or they were developed without a specific user or clear use in mind. Encouragingly, recent research has begun to tackle usability and the impact of diabetes risk scores. Two promising areas for further research are interventions that prompt lay people to check their own diabetes risk and use of risk scores on population datasets to identify high risk "hotspots" for targeted public health interventions.

Dataset Information

Risk scores for type 2 diabetes mellitus in Latin America: a systematic review of population-based studies.

Aim

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Risk scores for type 2 diabetes mellitus in Latin America: a systematic review of population-based studies.

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