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Using machine learning models to improve stroke risk level classification methods of China national stroke screening.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:With the character of high incidence, high prevalence and high mortality, stroke has brought a heavy burden to families and society in China. In 2009, the Ministry of Health of China launched the China national stroke screening and intervention program, which screens stroke and its risk factors and conducts high-risk population interventions for people aged above 40?years old all over China. In this program, stroke risk factors include hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidemia, smoking, lack of exercise, apparently overweight and family history of stroke. People with more than two risk factors or history of stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA) are considered as high-risk. However, it is impossible for this criterion to classify stroke risk levels for people with unknown values in fields of risk factors. The missing of stroke risk levels results in reduced efficiency of stroke interventions and inaccuracies in statistical results at the national level. In this paper, we use 2017 national stroke screening data to develop stroke risk classification models based on machine learning algorithms to improve the classification efficiency. METHOD:Firstly, we construct training set and test sets and process the imbalance training set based on oversampling and undersampling method. Then, we develop logistic regression model, Naïve Bayesian model, Bayesian network model, decision tree model, neural network model, random forest model, bagged decision tree model, voting model and boosting model with decision trees to classify stroke risk levels. RESULT:The recall of the boosting model with decision trees is the highest (99.94%), and the precision of the model based on the random forest is highest (97.33%). Using the random forest model (recall: 98.44%), the recall will be increased by about 2.8% compared with the method currently used, and several thousands more people with high risk of stroke can be identified each year. CONCLUSION:Models developed in this paper can improve the current screening method in the way that it can avoid the impact of unknown values, and avoid unnecessary rescreening and intervention expenditures. The national stroke screening program can choose classification models according to the practice need.

SUBMITTER: Li X

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6902572 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Using machine learning models to improve stroke risk level classification methods of China national stroke screening.

Li Xuemeng X Bian Di D Yu Jinghui J Li Mei M Zhao Dongsheng D

BMC medical informatics and decision making 20191210 1

<h4>Background</h4>With the character of high incidence, high prevalence and high mortality, stroke has brought a heavy burden to families and society in China. In 2009, the Ministry of Health of China launched the China national stroke screening and intervention program, which screens stroke and its risk factors and conducts high-risk population interventions for people aged above 40 years old all over China. In this program, stroke risk factors include hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidemia, smo ...[more]

PMID: 31822270

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Project description:Timely stroke diagnosis and intervention are necessary considering its high prevalence. Previous studies have mainly focused on stroke prediction with balanced data. Thus, this study aimed to develop machine learning models for predicting stroke with imbalanced data in an elderly population in China. Data were obtained from a prospective cohort that included 1131 participants (56 stroke patients and 1075 non-stroke participants) in 2012 and 2014, respectively. Data balancing techniques including random over-sampling (ROS), random under-sampling (RUS), and synthetic minority over-sampling technique (SMOTE) were used to process the imbalanced data in this study. Machine learning methods such as regularized logistic regression (RLR), support vector machine (SVM), and random forest (RF) were used to predict stroke with demographic, lifestyle, and clinical variables. Accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) were used for performance comparison. The top five variables for stroke prediction were selected for each machine learning method based on the SMOTE-balanced data set. The total prevalence of stroke was high in 2014 (4.95%), with men experiencing much higher prevalence than women (6.76% vs. 3.25%). The three machine learning methods performed poorly in the imbalanced data set with extremely low sensitivity (approximately 0.00) and AUC (approximately 0.50). After using data balancing techniques, the sensitivity and AUC considerably improved with moderate accuracy and specificity, and the maximum values for sensitivity and AUC reached 0.78 (95% CI, 0.73-0.83) for RF and 0.72 (95% CI, 0.71-0.73) for RLR. Using AUCs for RLR, SVM, and RF in the imbalanced data set as references, a significant improvement was observed in the AUCs of all three machine learning methods (p < 0.05) in the balanced data sets. Considering RLR in each data set as a reference, only RF in the imbalanced data set and SVM in the ROS-balanced data set were superior to RLR in terms of AUC. Sex, hypertension, and uric acid were common predictors in all three machine learning methods. Blood glucose level was included in both RLR and RF. Drinking, age and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein level, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol level were also included in RLR, SVM, and RF, respectively. Our study suggests that machine learning methods with data balancing techniques are effective tools for stroke prediction with imbalanced data.

Project description:BackgroundNew methods of continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) provide real-time alerts for hypoglycemia, hyperglycemia, and rapid fluctuations of glucose levels, thereby improving glycemic control, which is especially crucial during meals and physical activity. However, complex CGM systems pose challenges for individuals with diabetes and healthcare professionals, particularly when interpreting rapid glucose level changes, dealing with sensor delays (approximately a 10 min difference between interstitial and plasma glucose readings), and addressing potential malfunctions. The development of advanced predictive glucose level classification models becomes imperative for optimizing insulin dosing and managing daily activities.MethodsThe aim of this study was to investigate the efficacy of three different predictive models for the glucose level classification: (1) an autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA), (2) logistic regression, and (3) long short-term memory networks (LSTM). The performance of these models was evaluated in predicting hypoglycemia (<70 mg/dL), euglycemia (70-180 mg/dL), and hyperglycemia (>180 mg/dL) classes 15 min and 1 h ahead. More specifically, the confusion matrices were obtained and metrics such as precision, recall, and accuracy were computed for each model at each predictive horizon.ResultsAs expected, ARIMA underperformed the other models in predicting hyper- and hypoglycemia classes for both the 15 min and 1 h horizons. For the 15 min forecast horizon, the performance of logistic regression was the highest of all the models for all glycemia classes, with recall rates of 96% for hyper, 91% for norm, and 98% for hypoglycemia. For the 1 h forecast horizon, the LSTM model turned out to be the best for hyper- and hypoglycemia classes, achieving recall values of 85% and 87% respectively.ConclusionsOur findings suggest that different models may have varying strengths and weaknesses in predicting glucose level classes, and the choice of model should be carefully considered based on the specific requirements and context of the clinical application. The logistic regression model proved to be more accurate for the next 15 min, particularly in predicting hypoglycemia. However, the LSTM model outperformed logistic regression in predicting glucose level class for the next hour. Future research could explore hybrid models or ensemble approaches that combine the strengths of multiple models to further enhance the accuracy and reliability of glucose predictions.

Dataset Information

Using machine learning models to improve stroke risk level classification methods of China national stroke screening.

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Using machine learning models to improve stroke risk level classification methods of China national stroke screening.

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