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Performance of cytokine models in predicting SLE activity.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Identification of universal biomarkers to predict systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) flares is challenging due to the heterogeneity of the disease. Several biomarkers have been reported. However, the data of validated biomarkers to use as a predictor for lupus flares show variation. This study aimed to identify the biomarkers that are sensitive and specific to predict lupus flares. METHODS:One hundred and twenty-four SLE patients enrolled in this study and were prospectively followed up. The evaluation of disease activity achieved by the SLE disease activity index (SLEDAI-2K) and clinical SLEDAI (modified SLEDAI). Patients with active SLE were categorized into renal or non-renal flares. Serum cytokines were measured by multiplex bead-based flow cytometry. The correlation and logistic regression analysis were performed. RESULTS:Levels of IFN-?, MCP-1, IL-6, IL-8, and IL-18 significantly increased in active SLE and correlated with clinical SLEDAI. Complement C3 showed a weakly negative relationship with IFN-? and IL-18. IL-18 showed the highest positive likelihood ratios for active SLE. Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that IL-6, IL-8, and IL-18 significantly increased odds ratio (OR) for active SLE at baseline while complement C3 and IL-18 increased OR for active SLE at 12?weeks. IL-18 and IL-6 yielded higher sensitivity and specificity than anti-dsDNA and C3 to predict active renal and active non-renal, respectively. CONCLUSION:The heterogeneity of SLE pathogenesis leads to different signaling mechanisms and mediates through several cytokines. The monitoring of cytokines increases the sensitivity and specificity to determine SLE disease activity. IL-18 predicts the risk of active renal SLE while IL-6 and IL-8 predict the risk of active non-renal. The sensitivity and specificity of these cytokines are higher than the anti-dsDNA or C3. We propose to use the serum level of IL-18, IL-6, and IL-8 to monitor SLE disease activity in clinical practice.

SUBMITTER: Ruchakorn N

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6915901 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Performance of cytokine models in predicting SLE activity.

Ruchakorn Nopparat N Ngamjanyaporn Pintip P Suangtamai Thanitta T Kafaksom Thanuchporn T Polpanumas Charin C Petpisit Veerachat V Pisitkun Trairak T Pisitkun Prapaporn P

Arthritis research & therapy 20191216 1

<h4>Background</h4>Identification of universal biomarkers to predict systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) flares is challenging due to the heterogeneity of the disease. Several biomarkers have been reported. However, the data of validated biomarkers to use as a predictor for lupus flares show variation. This study aimed to identify the biomarkers that are sensitive and specific to predict lupus flares.<h4>Methods</h4>One hundred and twenty-four SLE patients enrolled in this study and were prospect ...[more]

PMID: 31842967

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Project description:BackgroundPatients with SLE display marked clinical and immunlogical heterogeneity. The purpose of the study was to investigate patterns of serum cytokines in patients with active and stable systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and to determine how they relate to clinical phenotype.MethodsSerum levels of 10 cytokines were measured retrospectively in a cohort of patients with SLE and in healthy controls using a high-sensitivity multiplex bead array. Disease activity was determined using the Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index 2000 (SLEDAI-2K) and British Isles Lupus Assessment Group (BILAG-2004) indices. Logistic regression models were used to determine the association between cytokine levels and active SLE. Principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis was then used to identify subgroups of patients on the basis of cytokine levels.ResultsSerum chemokine (C-X-C motif) ligand 10 (CXCL10) and CXCL13 were significantly higher in patients with SLE compared to healthy controls. Two cytokines (pentraxin-related protein (PTX3) and CXCL10) were significantly higher in patients with active disease after adjustment for potential confounding factors. Measurement of four cytokines (CXCL10, IL-10, IL-21 and PTX3) significantly improved the performance of a model to identify patients with clinically active disease. Cluster analysis revealed that the patients formed 3 distinct groups, characterised by higher levels of interferon alpha (IFN?) and B lymphocyte stimulator (BLyS) (group 1), increased CXCL10 and CXCL13 (group 2) or low levels of cytokines (group 3). Group 2 had significantly lower serum complement and higher anti-double-stranded DNA antibodies and increased prevalence of inflammatory arthritis.ConclusionsMultiplex analysis has identified a serum cytokine signature for active SLE. Within the SLE population distinct cytokine subgroups were identified, with differing clinical and immunological phenotypes that appeared stable over time. Assessment of cytokine profiles may reveal unique insights into disease heterogeneity.

Project description:Abstract Aims The development of acute heart failure (AHF) is a critical decision point in the natural history of the disease and carries a dismal prognosis. The lack of appropriate risk-stratification tools at hospital discharge of AHF patients significantly limits clinical ability to precisely tailor patient-specific therapeutic regimen at this pivotal juncture. Machine learning-based strategies may improve risk stratification by incorporating analysis of high-dimensional patient data with multiple covariates and novel prediction methodologies. In the current study, we aimed at evaluating the drivers for success in prediction models and establishing an institute-tailored artificial Intelligence-based prediction model for real-time decision support. Methods and results We used a cohort of all 10 868 patients AHF patients admitted to a tertiary hospital during a 12 years period. A total of 372 covariates were collected from admission to the end of the hospitalization. We assessed model performance across two axes: (i) type of prediction method and (ii) type and number of covariates. The primary outcome was 1-year survival from hospital discharge. For the model-type axis, we experimented with seven different methods: logistic regression (LR) with either L1 or L2 regularization, random forest (RF), Cox proportional hazards model (Cox), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), a deep neural-net (NeuralNet) and an ensemble classifier of all the above methods. We were able to achieve an area under receiver operator curve (AUROC) prediction accuracy of more than 80% with most prediction models including L1/L2-LR (80.4%/80.3%), Cox (80.2%), XGBoost (80.5%), NeuralNet (80.4%). RF was inferior to other methods (78.8%), and the ensemble model was slightly superior (81.2%). The number of covariates was a significant modifier (P < 0.001) of prediction success, the use of multiplex-covariates preformed significantly better (AUROC 80.4% for L1-LR) compared with a set of known clinical covariates (AUROC 77.8%). Demographics followed by lab-tests and administrative data resulted in the largest gain in model performance. Conclusions The choice of the predictive modelling method is secondary to the multiplicity and type of covariates for predicting AHF prognosis. The application of a structured data pre-processing combined with the use of multiple-covariates results in an accurate, institute-tailored risk prediction in AHF Graphical Abstract Graphical Abstract

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Performance of cytokine models in predicting SLE activity.

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Performance of cytokine models in predicting SLE activity.

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