Dataset Information

Social determinants of health in relation to firearm-related homicides in the United States: A nationwide multilevel cross-sectional study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Gun violence has shortened the average life expectancy of Americans, and better knowledge about the root causes of gun violence is crucial to its prevention. While some empirical evidence exists regarding the impacts of social and economic factors on violence and firearm homicide rates, to the author's knowledge, there has yet to be a comprehensive and comparative lagged, multilevel investigation of major social determinants of health in relation to firearm homicides and mass shootings.

Methods and findings

This study used negative binomial regression models and geolocated gun homicide incident data from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2015, to explore and compare the independent associations of key state-, county-, and neighborhood-level social determinants of health-social mobility, social capital, income inequality, racial and economic segregation, and social spending-with neighborhood firearm-related homicides and mass shootings in the United States, accounting for relevant state firearm laws and a variety of state, county, and neighborhood (census tract [CT]) characteristics. Latitude and longitude coordinates on firearm-related deaths were previously collected by the Gun Violence Archive, and then linked by the British newspaper The Guardian to CTs according to 2010 Census geographies. The study population consisted of all 74,134 CTs as defined for the 2010 Census in the 48 states of the contiguous US. The final sample spanned 70,579 CTs, containing an estimated 314,247,908 individuals, or 98% of the total US population in 2015. The analyses were based on 13,060 firearm-related deaths in 2015, with 11,244 non-mass shootings taking place in 8,673 CTs and 141 mass shootings occurring in 138 CTs. For area-level social determinants, lag periods of 3 to 17 years were examined based on existing theory, empirical evidence, and data availability. County-level institutional social capital (levels of trust in institutions), social mobility, income inequality, and public welfare spending exhibited robust relationships with CT-level gun homicide rates and the total numbers of combined non-mass and mass shooting homicide incidents and non-mass shooting homicide incidents alone. A 1-standard deviation (SD) increase in institutional social capital was linked to a 19% reduction in the homicide rate (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 0.81, 95% CI 0.73-0.91, p < 0.001) and a 17% decrease in the number of firearm homicide incidents (IRR = 0.83, 95% CI 0.73-0.95, p = 0.01). Upward social mobility was related to a 25% reduction in the gun homicide rate (IRR = 0.75, 95% CI 0.66-0.86, p < 0.001) and a 24% decrease in the number of homicide incidents (IRR = 0.76, 95% CI 0.67-0.87, p < 0.001). Meanwhile, 1-SD increases in the neighborhood percentages of residents in poverty and males living alone were associated with 26%-27% and 12% higher homicide rates, respectively. Study limitations include possible residual confounding by factors at the individual/household level, and lack of disaggregation of gun homicide data by gender and race/ethnicity.

Conclusions

This study finds that the rich-poor gap, level of citizens' trust in institutions, economic opportunity, and public welfare spending are all related to firearm homicide rates in the US. Further establishing the causal nature of these associations and modifying these social determinants may help to address the growing gun violence epidemic and reverse recent life expectancy declines among Americans.

SUBMITTER: Kim D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6917210 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Social determinants of health in relation to firearm-related homicides in the United States: A nationwide multilevel cross-sectional study.

Kim Daniel D

PLoS medicine 20191217 12

<h4>Background</h4>Gun violence has shortened the average life expectancy of Americans, and better knowledge about the root causes of gun violence is crucial to its prevention. While some empirical evidence exists regarding the impacts of social and economic factors on violence and firearm homicide rates, to the author's knowledge, there has yet to be a comprehensive and comparative lagged, multilevel investigation of major social determinants of health in relation to firearm homicides and mass ...[more]

PMID: 31846474

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Project description:BackgroundFirearm violence is a significant public health problem in the United States. A surge in firearm purchasing following the onset of the coronavirus pandemic may have contributed to an increase in firearm violence. We sought to estimate the state-level association between firearm purchasing and interpersonal firearm violence during the pandemic.MethodsCross-sectional study of the 48 contiguous states and the District of Columbia from January 2018 through July 2020. Data were obtained from the National Instant Criminal Background Check System (a proxy for firearm purchasing) and the Gun Violence Archive. Using negative binomial regression models, we estimated the association between cumulative excess firearm purchases in March through July 2020 (measured as the difference between observed rates and those expected from autoregressive integrated moving average models) and injuries (including nonfatal and fatal) from intentional, interpersonal firearm violence (non-domestic and domestic violence).ResultsWe estimated that there were 4.3 million excess firearm purchases nationally from March through July 2020 and a total of 4075 more firearm injuries than expected from April through July. We found no relationship between state-level excess purchasing and non-domestic firearm violence, e.g., each excess purchase per 100 population was associated with a rate ratio (RR) of firearm injury from non-domestic violence of 0.76 (95% CI: 0.50-1.02) in April; 0.99 (95% CI: 0.72-1.25) in May; 1.10 (95% CI: 0.93-1.32) in June; and 0.98 (95% CI: 0.85-1.12) in July. Excess firearm purchasing within states was associated with an increase in firearm injuries from domestic violence in April (RR: 2.60; 95% CI: 1.32-5.93) and May (RR: 1.79; 95% CI: 1.19-2.91), though estimates were sensitive to model specification.ConclusionsNationwide, firearm purchasing and firearm violence increased substantially during the first months of the coronavirus pandemic. At the state level, the magnitude of the increase in purchasing was not associated with the magnitude of the increase in firearm violence. Increases in purchasing may have contributed to additional firearm injuries from domestic violence in April and May. Results suggest much of the rise in firearm violence during our study period was attributable to other factors, indicating a need for additional research.

Project description:Background:Educational attainment and income are two socioeconomic status indicators with strong protective effects against cigarette smoking. Marginalization-related Diminished Returns, however, refer to less than expected protective effects of socioeconomic status indicators for the members of the racial and ethnic minority groups, particularly Blacks and Hispanics, compared to non-Hispanic Whites. Aim:Borrowing data from a nationally representative study in the US, this study tested whether racial and ethnic differences exist in the effects of educational attainment and poverty status on cigarette smoking of American adults. Methods:This cross-sectional study entered 28,329 adult participants of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH; 2013). Both educational attainment and poverty status were the independent variables. The dependent variable was current hookah smoking. Age, gender, and region were the covariates. Race and ethnicity were the effect modifiers (moderators). Results:Overall, individuals with higher educational attainment were more likely to smoke a hookah. Individuals who lived out of poverty, however, had lower odds of current hookah smoking. Race and ethnicity both showed statistical interactions with both socioeconomic indicators suggesting that Blacks and Hispanics with high educational attainment and those who live out of poverty have disproportionately high odds of hookah smoking, compared to non-Hispanic Whites with high socioeconomic status. Conclusions:In the United States, middle-class racial and ethnic minority people remain at higher risk of smoking hookah. As a result, we should expect a high tobacco burden in middle-class Black and Hispanic adults. We suggest that policymakers should not take an over-simplistic way and reduce the problem of race/ethnic inequalities in tobacco use to gaps in socioeconomic status between groups. Marginalization-related diminished returns generate tobacco disparities in higher socioeconomic status levels. Middle-class racial and ethnic minority people need extra support to stay healthy.

Project description:Importance:Firearm laws in one state may be associated with increased firearm death rates from homicide and suicide in neighboring states. Objective:To determine whether counties located closer to states with lenient firearm policies have higher firearm death rates. Design, Setting, and Participants:This cross-sectional study of firearm death rates by county for January 2010 to December 2014 examined data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for firearm suicide and homicide decedents for 3108 counties in the 48 contiguous states of the United States. Exposures:Each county was assigned 2 scores, a state policy score (range, 0-12) based on the strength of its state firearm laws, and an interstate policy score (range, -1.33 to 8.31) based on the sum of population-weighted and distance-decayed policy scores for all other states. Counties were divided into those with low, medium, and high home state and interstate policy scores. Main Outcomes and Measures:County-level rates of firearm, nonfirearm, and total homicide and suicide. With multilevel Bayesian spatial Poisson models, we generated incidence rate ratios (IRR) comparing incidence rates between each group of counties and the reference group, counties with high home state and high interstate policy scores. Results:Stronger firearm laws in a state were associated with lower firearm suicide rates and lower overall suicide rates regardless of the strength of the other states' laws. Counties with low state scores had the highest rates of firearm suicide. Rates were similar across levels of interstate policy score (low: IRR, 1.34; 95% credible interval [CI], 1.11-1.65; medium: IRR, 1.36, (95% CI, 1.15-1.65; and high: IRR, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.20-1.73). Counties with low state and low or medium interstate policy scores had the highest rates of firearm homicide. Counties with low home state and interstate scores had higher firearm homicide rates (IRR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.02-1.88) and overall homicide rates (IRR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.03-1.67). Counties in states with low firearm policy scores had lower rates of firearm homicide only if the interstate firearm policy score was high. Conclusions and Relevance:Strong state firearm policies were associated with lower suicide rates regardless of other states' laws. Strong policies were associated with lower homicide rates, and strong interstate policies were also associated with lower homicide rates, where home state policies were permissive. Strengthening state firearm policies may prevent firearm suicide and homicide, with benefits that may extend beyond state lines.

Project description:Importance:An association between social and neighborhood characteristics and health outcomes has been reported but remains poorly understood owing to complex multidimensional factors that vary across geographic space. Objectives:To quantify social determinants of health (SDOH) as multiple dimensions across the continental United States (the 48 contiguous states and the District of Columbia) at a small-area resolution and to examine the association of SDOH with premature mortality within Chicago, Illinois. Design, Setting, and Participants:In this cross-sectional study, census tracts from the US Census Bureau from 2014 were used to develop multidimensional SDOH indices and a regional typology of the continental United States at a small-area level (n?=?71?901 census tracts with approximately 312 million persons) using dimension reduction and clustering machine learning techniques (unsupervised algorithms used to reduce dimensions of multivariate data). The SDOH indices were used to estimate age-adjusted mortality rates in Chicago (n?=?789 census tracts with approximately 7.5 million persons) with a spatial regression for the same period, while controlling for violent crime. Main Outcomes and Measures:Fifteen variables, measured as a 5-year mean, were selected to characterize SDOH as small-area variations for demographic characteristics of vulnerable groups, economic status, social and neighborhood characteristics, and housing and transportation availability at the census-tract level. This SDOH data matrix was reduced to 4 indices reflecting advantage, isolation, opportunity, and mixed immigrant cohesion and accessibility, which were then clustered into 7 distinct multidimensional neighborhood typologies. The association between SDOH indices and premature mortality (defined as death before age 75 years) in Chicago was measured by years of potential life lost and aggregated to a 5-year mean. Data analyses were conducted between July 1, 2018, and August 30, 2019. Results:Among the 71?901 census tracts examined across the continental United States, a median (interquartile range) of 27.2% (47.1%) of residents had minority status, 12.1% (7.5%) had disabilities, 22.9% (7.6%) were 18 years and younger, and 13.6% (8.1%) were 65 years and older. Among the 789 census tracts examined in Chicago, a median (interquartile range) of 80.4% (56.3%) of residents had minority status, 10.2% (8.2%) had disabilities, 23.2% (10.9%) were 18 years and younger, and 9.5% (7.1%) were 65 years and older. Four SDOH indices accounted for 71% of the variance across all census tracts in the continental United States in 2014. The SDOH neighborhood typology of extreme poverty, which is of greatest concern to health care practitioners and policy advocates, comprised only 9.6% of all census tracts across the continental United States but characterized small areas of known public health crises. An association was observed between all SDOH indices and age-adjusted premature mortality rates in Chicago (R2?=?0.63; P?<?.001), even after accounting for violent crime and spatial structures. Conclusions and Relevance:The modeling of SDOH as multivariate indices rather than as a singular deprivation index may better capture the complexity and spatial heterogeneity underlying SDOH. During a time of increased attention to SDOH, this analysis may provide actionable information for key stakeholders with respect to the focus of interventions.

Dataset Information

Social determinants of health in relation to firearm-related homicides in the United States: A nationwide multilevel cross-sectional study.

Background

Methods and findings

Conclusions

Publications

Social determinants of health in relation to firearm-related homicides in the United States: A nationwide multilevel cross-sectional study.

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