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The anticipation of events in time.

ABSTRACT: Humans anticipate events signaled by sensory cues. It is commonly assumed that two uncertainty parameters modulate the brain's capacity to predict: the hazard rate (HR) of event probability and the uncertainty in time estimation which increases with elapsed time. We investigate both assumptions by presenting event probability density functions (PDFs) in each of three sensory modalities. We show that perceptual systems use the reciprocal PDF and not the HR to model event probability density. We also demonstrate that temporal uncertainty does not necessarily grow with elapsed time but can also diminish, depending on the event PDF. Previous research identified neuronal activity related to event probability in multiple levels of the cortical hierarchy (sensory (V4), association (LIP), motor and other areas) proposing the HR as an elementary neuronal computation. Our results-consistent across vision, audition, and somatosensation-suggest that the neurobiological implementation of event anticipation is based on a different, simpler and more stable computation than HR: the reciprocal PDF of events in time.

SUBMITTER: Grabenhorst M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6925136 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The anticipation of events in time.

Grabenhorst Matthias M Michalareas Georgios G Maloney Laurence T LT Poeppel David D

Nature communications 20191220 1

Humans anticipate events signaled by sensory cues. It is commonly assumed that two uncertainty parameters modulate the brain's capacity to predict: the hazard rate (HR) of event probability and the uncertainty in time estimation which increases with elapsed time. We investigate both assumptions by presenting event probability density functions (PDFs) in each of three sensory modalities. We show that perceptual systems use the reciprocal PDF and not the HR to model event probability density. We a ...[more]

PMID: 31862912

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Project description:In 2011, one of the authors (DJB) published a report of nine experiments in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology purporting to demonstrate that an individual's cognitive and affective responses can be influenced by randomly selected stimulus events that do not occur until after his or her responses have already been made and recorded, a generalized variant of the phenomenon traditionally denoted by the term precognition. To encourage replications, all materials needed to conduct them were made available on request. We here report a meta-analysis of 90 experiments from 33 laboratories in 14 countries which yielded an overall effect greater than 6 sigma, z = 6.40, p = 1.2 × 10 (-10 ) with an effect size (Hedges' g) of 0.09. A Bayesian analysis yielded a Bayes Factor of 5.1 × 10 (9), greatly exceeding the criterion value of 100 for "decisive evidence" in support of the experimental hypothesis. When DJB's original experiments are excluded, the combined effect size for replications by independent investigators is 0.06, z = 4.16, p = 1.1 × 10 (-5), and the BF value is 3,853, again exceeding the criterion for "decisive evidence." The number of potentially unretrieved experiments required to reduce the overall effect size of the complete database to a trivial value of 0.01 is 544, and seven of eight additional statistical tests support the conclusion that the database is not significantly compromised by either selection bias or by intense " p-hacking"-the selective suppression of findings or analyses that failed to yield statistical significance. P-curve analysis, a recently introduced statistical technique, estimates the true effect size of the experiments to be 0.20 for the complete database and 0.24 for the independent replications, virtually identical to the effect size of DJB's original experiments (0.22) and the closely related "presentiment" experiments (0.21). We discuss the controversial status of precognition and other anomalous effects collectively known as psi.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Locomotor transitions between different ambulatory tasks are essential activities of daily life. During these transitions, biomechanics are affected by various factors such as anticipation, movement direction, and task complexity. These factors are thought to influence the neuromotor regulation of dynamic balance, which can be quantified using whole-body angular momentum (H). However, the specific effects of these factors on balance during transitions are not well understood. The ability to regulate dynamic balance in the presence of these contextual factors is especially important in the frontal plane, as it is usually challenging to maintain walking balance in the frontal plane for individuals with neuromuscular impairments. The purpose of this study was to apportion their effects on the time evolution of frontal plane dynamic balance during locomotor transitions of healthy, unimpaired individuals. METHODS:Five healthy young subjects performed 10 separate types of transitions with discrete combinations of factors including complexity (straight walking, cuts, combined cut/stair ascent), cut style (crossover, sidestep), and anticipation (anticipated and unanticipated). A three-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to compare the maxima, minima, and average rates of change of frontal-plane H among all transitions. RESULTS:Before transition, within anticipated state peak value of H increased 307% in crossover style relative to sidestep style (p?<?0.0001). During Transition Phase, within unanticipated state the magnitudes of average rate of change and peak value increased 70 and 46% in sidestep style compared to crossover style (p?<?0.0001 and p?=?0.0003). Within sidestep style, they increased in unanticipated state relative to anticipated state. Later in Correction Phase, within both anticipation states peak value of H increased 41 and 75% in cut/stairs transitions relative to cuts (p?=?0.010 and p?<?0.0001). For cut/stairs transitions, peak value of H increased 45% in unanticipated state compared to anticipated state (p?=?0.0001). CONCLUSIONS:These results underlined the detrimental effects of unanticipated state and task complexity on dynamic balance during walking transitions. These findings imply increased demand of neuromuscular system and functional deficits of individuals with neuromuscular disorders during these tasks. In addition, cutting style influenced frontal plane dynamic balance before transition and in response to unanticipated direction change. Collectively, these results may help identify impaired balance control of fall-prone individuals and inform interventions targeting specific destabilizing scenarios.

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The anticipation of events in time.

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The anticipation of events in time.

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