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Genomic risk score offers predictive performance comparable to clinical risk factors for ischaemic stroke.

ABSTRACT: Recent genome-wide association studies in stroke have enabled the generation of genomic risk scores (GRS) but their predictive power has been modest compared to established stroke risk factors. Here, using a meta-scoring approach, we develop a metaGRS for ischaemic stroke (IS) and analyse this score in the UK Biobank (n?=?395,393; 3075 IS events by age 75). The metaGRS hazard ratio for IS (1.26, 95% CI 1.22-1.31 per metaGRS standard deviation) doubles that of a previous GRS, identifying a subset of individuals at monogenic levels of risk: the top 0.25% of metaGRS have three-fold risk of IS. The metaGRS is similarly or more predictive compared to several risk factors, such as family history, blood pressure, body mass index, and smoking. We estimate the reductions needed in modifiable risk factors for individuals with different levels of genomic risk and suggest that, for individuals with high metaGRS, achieving risk factor levels recommended by current guidelines may be insufficient to mitigate risk.

SUBMITTER: Abraham G

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6925280 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Genomic risk score offers predictive performance comparable to clinical risk factors for ischaemic stroke.

Abraham Gad G Malik Rainer R Yonova-Doing Ekaterina E Salim Agus A Wang Tingting T Danesh John J Butterworth Adam S AS Howson Joanna M M JMM Inouye Michael M Dichgans Martin M

Nature communications 20191220 1

Recent genome-wide association studies in stroke have enabled the generation of genomic risk scores (GRS) but their predictive power has been modest compared to established stroke risk factors. Here, using a meta-scoring approach, we develop a metaGRS for ischaemic stroke (IS) and analyse this score in the UK Biobank (n = 395,393; 3075 IS events by age 75). The metaGRS hazard ratio for IS (1.26, 95% CI 1.22-1.31 per metaGRS standard deviation) doubles that of a previous GRS, identifying a subset ...[more]

PMID: 31862893

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Project description:Background and purposePolygenic risk scores (PRSs) can be used to predict ischemic stroke (IS). However, further validation of PRS performance is required in independent populations, particularly older adults in whom the majority of strokes occur.MethodsWe predicted risk of incident IS events in a population of 12 792 healthy older individuals enrolled in the ASPREE trial (Aspirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly). The PRS was calculated using 3.6 million genetic variants. Participants had no previous history of cardiovascular events, dementia, or persistent physical disability at enrollment. The primary outcome was IS over 5 years, with stroke subtypes as secondary outcomes. A multivariable model including conventional risk factors was applied and reevaluated after adding PRS. Area under the curve and net reclassification were evaluated.ResultsAt baseline, mean population age was 75 years. In total, 173 incident IS events occurred over a median follow-up of 4.7 years. When PRS was added to the multivariable model as a continuous variable, it was independently associated with IS (hazard ratio, 1.41 [95% CI, 1.20–1.65] per SD of the PRS; P<0.001). The PRS alone was a better discriminator for IS events than most conventional risk factors. PRS as a categorical variable was a significant predictor in the highest tertile (hazard ratio, 1.74; P=0.004) compared with the lowest. The area under the curve of the conventional model was 66.6% (95% CI, 62.2–71.1) and after inclusion of the PRS, improved to 68.5 ([95% CI, 64.0–73.0] P=0.095). In subgroup analysis, the continuous PRS remained an independent predictor for large vessel and cardioembolic stroke subtypes but not for small vessel stroke. Reclassification was improved, as the continuous net reclassification index after adding PRS to the conventional model was 0.25 (95% CI, 0.17–0.43).ConclusionsPRS predicts incident IS in a healthy older population but only moderately improves prediction over conventional risk factors.RegistrationURL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT01038583.

Project description:ObjectivePredicting the prognosis of transient ischaemic attack (TIA) is difficult for many frontline clinicians. The purpose of this study was to determine whether subsequent stroke in TIA patients can be predicted via red blood cell distribution width (RDW).Material and methodsA total of 360 consecutive patients with new-onset TIA in our stroke centre, were enrolled over the period studied. The patients were divided into three groups: 103 TIA patients, 206 ischaemic stroke (IS) patients and 51 patients with haemorrhagic stroke (HS) within 7 days after TIA. Complete blood count, biochemical parameters and brain imaging were performed on all patients.ResultsThe mean RDW values of patients with IS and HS after TIA were significantly higher than patients with TIA (13.35 ± 1.59 vs 12.84 ± 1.19, 13.32 ± 1.08 vs 12.84 ± 1.19, respectively, all p ≤ .001). In a multivariate model, RDW was independently associated with stroke after TIA (IS: odds ratio (OR) = 2.52, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.46-3.35, p = .002; HS: OR = 1.511, 95% CI = 1.101-2.074, p = .011). Compared to ABCD2 scores, the diagnostic power of RDW in the differentiation of patients with IS after TIA was better (area under curve (AUC): 0.731 vs 0.613, p = .015). When an RDW cut-off value of 13.95% was accepted for differentiating patients with IS from TIA, the sensitivity and specificity were 73.7% and 74.3%, respectively. However, the AUC for the ability of the RDW to predict HS was 0.653 (95% CI = 0.589-0.716; p < .001).ConclusionsThe early determination of RDW is a promising, rapid, easy and inexpensive biomarker to predict the subsequent stroke in TIA patients, especially for IS. KEY MESSAGESThe most important result of our study is to show that (1) the higher RDW, the earlier the stroke onset and (2) RDW ≥13.95% has a 2.52-fold risk of ischaemic stroke in TIA patients, and RDW ≥12.85% has a 1.51-fold risk of haemorrhagic stroke.As an economic and accessible hematological marker, baseline RDW may serve as a useful biomarker for risk stratification in TIA patients.

Project description:BackgroundA third of transient ischaemic attacks (TIAs) and ischaemic strokes are of undetermined cause (ie, cryptogenic), potentially undermining secondary prevention. If these events are due to occult atheroma, the risk-factor profile and coronary prognosis should resemble that of overt large artery events. If they have a cardioembolic cause, the risk of future cardioembolic events should be increased. We aimed to assess the burden, outcome, risk factors, and long-term prognosis of cryptogenic TIA and stroke.MethodsIn a population-based study in Oxfordshire, UK, among patients with a first TIA or ischaemic stroke from April 1, 2002, to March 31, 2014, we compared cryptogenic events versus other causative subtypes according to the TOAST classification. We compared markers of atherosclerosis (ie, risk factors, coronary and peripheral arterial disease, asymptomatic carotid stenosis, and 10-year risk of acute coronary events) and of cardioembolism (ie, risk of cardioembolic stroke, systemic emboli, and new atrial fibrillation [AF] during follow-up, and minor-risk echocardiographic abnormalities and subclinical paroxysmal AF at baseline in patients with index events between 2010 and 2014).FindingsAmong 2555 patients, 812 (32%) had cryptogenic events (incidence of cryptogenic stroke 0·36 per 1000 population per year, 95% CI 0·23-0·49). Death or dependency at 6 months was similar after cryptogenic stroke compared with non-cardioembolic stroke (23% vs 27% for large artery and small vessel subtypes combined; p=0·26) as was the 10-year risk of recurrence (32% vs 27%; p=0·91). However, the cryptogenic group had fewer atherosclerotic risk factors than the large artery disease (p<0·0001), small vessel disease (p=0·001), and cardioembolic (p=0·008) groups. Compared with patients with large artery events, those with cryptogenic events had less hypertension (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 0·41, 95% CI 0·30-0·56; p<0·0001), diabetes (0·62, 0·43-0·90; p=0·01), peripheral vascular disease (0·27, 0·17-0·45; p<0·0001), hypercholesterolaemia (0·53, 0·40-0·70; p<0·0001), and history of smoking (0·68, 0·51-0·92; p=0·01), and compared with small vessel and cardioembolic subtypes, they had no excess risk of asymptomatic carotid disease (adjusted OR 0·64, 95% CI 0·37-1·11; p=0·11) or acute coronary events (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0·76, 95% CI 0·49-1·18; p=0·22) during follow-up. Compared with large artery and small vessel subtypes combined, patients with cryptogenic events also had no excess of minor-risk echocardiographic abnormalities (cryptogenic 37% vs 45%; p=0·18) or paroxysmal AF (6% vs 10%; p=0·17) at baseline or of new AF (adjusted HR 1·23, 0·78-1·95; p=0·37) or presumed cardioembolic events (1·16, 0·62-2·17; p=0·64) during follow-up.InterpretationThe clinical burden of cryptogenic TIA and stroke is substantial. Although stroke recurrence rates are comparable with other subtypes, cryptogenic events have the fewest atherosclerotic markers and no excess of cardioembolic markers.FundingWellcome Trust, Wolfson Foundation, UK Stroke Association, British Heart Foundation, Dunhill Medical Trust, National Institute for Health Research, Medical Research Council, and the NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre.

Project description:IntroductionLiterature on prevalence of symptomatic internal carotid artery stenosis is scarce and heterogeneous. Prevalence may have decreased in recent years due to improved management of cardiovascular risk factors. We aim to estimate current prevalence and identify risk factors of ipsilateral internal carotid artery stenosis in patients with recent hemispheric transient ischaemic attack or ischaemic stroke in the Netherlands.Patients and methodsWe included consecutive adult patients admitted to two large hospitals in the Netherlands in 2014 who suffered from amaurosis fugax, retinal ischaemia, transient ischaemic attack or ischaemic stroke in the vessel territory of the internal carotid artery. Primary outcome was presence of ipsilateral internal carotid artery stenosis (degree subdivided following NASCET criteria), as assessed with duplex ultrasonography, computed tomography angiography and/or magnetic resonance angiography. We used univariable and multivariable logistic regression to identify risk factors for the presence of a 50-100% internal carotid artery stenosis.ResultsWe analysed 883 consecutive patients with recent transient ischaemic attack or ischaemic stroke. Of these, 110 (12.5%) had 50-99% ipsilateral internal carotid artery stenosis. Subgroup analyses showed higher prevalence of any degree of internal carotid artery stenosis for male sex and White patients. In adjusted analyses, higher age (odds ratio 1.4/10 years; 95% confidence interval 1.16-1.63), male sex (odds ratio 2.8; 95% confidence interval 1.83-4.19), retinal ischaemia (odds ratio 2.5; 95% confidence interval 1.32-4.76) and current smoking (odds ratio 1.8; 95% confidence interval 1.09-2.79) were statistically significant risk factors for 50-100% internal carotid artery stenosis.ConclusionThe prevalence of internal carotid artery stenosis seems to be lower in patients with recent transient ischaemic attack or ischaemic stroke than stated in previous studies. We found that higher age, male sex, White ethnicity, retinal ischaemia and current smoking were important risk factors for symptomatic internal carotid artery stenosis.

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Genomic risk score offers predictive performance comparable to clinical risk factors for ischaemic stroke.

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Genomic risk score offers predictive performance comparable to clinical risk factors for ischaemic stroke.

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