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Predictive modelling of hypoxic ischaemic encephalopathy risk following perinatal asphyxia.

ABSTRACT: Hypoxic Ischemic Encephalopathy (HIE) remains a major cause of neurological disability. Early intervention with therapeutic hypothermia improves outcome, but prediction of HIE is difficult and no single clinical marker is reliable. Machine learning algorithms may allow identification of patterns in clinical data to improve prognostic power. Here we examine the use of a Random Forest machine learning algorithm and five-fold cross-validation to predict the occurrence of HIE in a prospective cohort of infants with perinatal asphyxia. Infants with perinatal asphyxia were recruited at birth and neonatal course was followed for the development of HIE. Clinical variables were recorded for each infant including maternal demographics, delivery details and infant's condition at birth. We found that the strongest predictors of HIE were the infant's condition at birth (as expressed by Apgar score), need for resuscitation, and the first postnatal measures of pH, lactate, and base deficit. Random Forest models combining features including Apgar score, most intensive resuscitation, maternal age and infant birth weight both with and without biochemical markers of pH, lactate, and base deficit resulted in a sensitivity of 56-100% and a specificity of 78-99%. This study presents a dynamic method of rapid classification that has the potential to be easily adapted and implemented in a clinical setting, with and without the availability of blood gas analysis. Our results demonstrate that applying machine learning algorithms to readily available clinical data may support clinicians in the early and accurate identification of infants who will develop HIE. We anticipate our models to be a starting point for the development of a more sophisticated clinical decision support system to help identify which infants will benefit from early therapeutic hypothermia.

SUBMITTER: Mooney C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8261660 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundHypoxic-ischaemic encephalopathy (HIE) is a leading cause of mortality and long-term neurological sequelae, affecting thousands of children worldwide. Current therapies to treat HIE are limited to cooling. Stem cell-based therapies offer a potential therapeutic approach to repair or regenerate injured brain tissue. These preclinical findings have now culminated in ongoing human neonatal trials.ObjectivesTo determine the efficacy and safety of stem cell-based interventions for the treatment of hypoxic-ischaemic encephalopathy (HIE) in newborn infants.Search methodsWe used the standard search strategy of Cochrane Neonatal to search the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL; 2020, Issue 5), MEDLINE via PubMed (1966 to 8 June 2020), Embase (1980 to 8 June 2020), and CINAHL (1982 to 8 June 2020). We also searched clinical trials databases, conference proceedings, and the reference lists of retrieved articles for randomised controlled trials and quasi-randomised trials.Selection criteriaRandomised controlled trials, quasi-randomised controlled trials and cluster trials comparing 1) stem cell-based interventions (any type) compared to control (placebo or no treatment); 2) use of mesenchymal stem/stromal cells (MSCs) of type (e.g. number of doses or passages) or source (e.g. autologous versus allogeneic, or bone marrow versus cord) versus MSCs of other type or source; 3) use of stem cell-based interventions other than MSCs of type (e.g. mononuclear cells, oligodendrocyte progenitor cells, neural stem cells, hematopoietic stem cells, and inducible pluripotent stem cells) or source (e.g. autologous versus allogeneic, or bone marrow versus cord) versus stem cell-based interventions other than MSCs of other type or source; or 4) MSCs versus stem cell-based interventions other than MSCs.Data collection and analysisFor each of the included trials, two authors independently planned to extract data (e.g. number of participants, birth weight, gestational age, type and source of MSCs or other stem cell-based interventions) and assess the risk of bias (e.g. adequacy of randomisation, blinding, completeness of follow-up). The primary outcomes considered in this review are all-cause neonatal mortality, major neurodevelopmental disability, death or major neurodevelopmental disability assessed at 18 to 24 months of age. We planned to use the GRADE approach to assess the quality of evidence.Main resultsOur search strategy yielded 616 references. Two review authors independently assessed all references for inclusion. We did not find any completed studies for inclusion. Fifteen RCTs are currently registered and ongoing. We describe the three studies we excluded.Authors' conclusionsThere is currently no evidence from randomised trials that assesses the benefit or harms of stem cell-based interventions for the prevention of morbidity and mortality following hypoxic-ischaemic encephalopathy in newborn infants.

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Predictive modelling of hypoxic ischaemic encephalopathy risk following perinatal asphyxia.

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