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Comparing alternative cholera vaccination strategies in Maela refugee camp: using a transmission model in public health practice.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Cholera is a major public health concern in displaced-person camps, which often contend with overcrowding and scarcity of resources. Maela, the largest and longest-standing refugee camp in Thailand, located along the Thai-Burmese border, experienced four cholera outbreaks between 2005 and 2010. In 2013, a cholera vaccine campaign was implemented in the camp. To assist in the evaluation of the campaign and planning for subsequent campaigns, we developed a mathematical model of cholera in Maela. METHODS:We formulated a Susceptible-Infectious-Water-Recovered-based transmission model and estimated parameters using incidence data from 2010. We next evaluated the reduction in cases conferred by several immunization strategies, varying timing, effectiveness, and resources (i.e., vaccine availability). After the vaccine campaign, we generated case forecasts for the next year, to inform on-the-ground decision-making regarding whether a booster campaign was needed. RESULTS:We found that preexposure vaccination can substantially reduce the risk of cholera even when <50% of the population is given the full two-dose series. Additionally, the preferred number of doses per person should be considered in the context of one vs. two dose effectiveness and vaccine availability. For reactive vaccination, a trade-off between timing and effectiveness was revealed, indicating that it may be beneficial to give one dose to more people rather than two doses to fewer people, given that a two-dose schedule would incur a delay in administration of the second dose. Forecasting using realistic coverage levels predicted that there was no need for a booster campaign in 2014 (consistent with our predictions, there was not a cholera epidemic in 2014). CONCLUSIONS:Our analyses suggest that vaccination in conjunction with ongoing water sanitation and hygiene efforts provides an effective strategy for controlling cholera outbreaks in refugee camps. Effective preexposure vaccination depends on timing and effectiveness. If a camp is facing an outbreak, delayed distribution of vaccines can substantially alter the effectiveness of reactive vaccination, suggesting that quick distribution of vaccines may be more important than ensuring every individual receives both vaccine doses. Overall, this analysis illustrates how mathematical models can be applied in public health practice, to assist in evaluating alternative intervention strategies and inform decision-making.

SUBMITTER: Havumaki J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6925891 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Comparing alternative cholera vaccination strategies in Maela refugee camp: using a transmission model in public health practice.

Havumaki Joshua J Meza Rafael R Phares Christina R CR Date Kashmira K Eisenberg Marisa C MC

BMC infectious diseases 20191221 1

<h4>Background</h4>Cholera is a major public health concern in displaced-person camps, which often contend with overcrowding and scarcity of resources. Maela, the largest and longest-standing refugee camp in Thailand, located along the Thai-Burmese border, experienced four cholera outbreaks between 2005 and 2010. In 2013, a cholera vaccine campaign was implemented in the camp. To assist in the evaluation of the campaign and planning for subsequent campaigns, we developed a mathematical model of ...[more]

PMID: 31864298

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Project description:IntroductionJapanese encephalitis (JE) is a mosquito-borne viral infection of the brain that can cause permanent brain damage and death. In the Philippines, efforts are underway to deliver a live attenuated JE vaccine (CD-JEV) to children under five years of age (YOA), who are disproportionately infected. Multiple vaccination strategies are being considered.MethodsWe conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis comparing three vaccination strategies to the current state of no vaccination from the societal and government perspectives: (1) national routine vaccination only, (2) sub-national campaign followed by national routine, and (3) national campaign followed by national routine. We developed a Markov model to estimate impact of vaccination or no vaccination over the child's lifetime horizon, assuming an annual incidence of 10.6 cases per 100,000. Costs of illness ($859/case), vaccine ($0.50/dose), routine vaccination ($0.95/dose), and campaign vaccination ($0.98/dose) were based on hospital financial records, expert opinion and literature. The societal perspective included transportation and opportunity costs of caregiver time, in addition to costs incurred by the health system.ResultsJE vaccination via national campaign followed by national routine delivery was the most cost-effective strategy modeled with a cost per disability adjusted life year (DALY) averted of $233 and $29 from the government and societal perspectives, respectively. Results were similar for other delivery strategies with cost/DALY ranging from $233 to $265 from the government perspective and $29-$57 from the societal perspective. JE vaccination was projected to prevent 27,856-37,277 cases, 5571-7455 deaths, and 173,233-230,704 DALYs among children under five over 20 consecutive birth cohorts. Total incremental costs of vaccination versus no vaccination over 20 birth cohorts were $6.6-$9.8 million from the societal perspective ($230 K-$440 K annually) and $45.9-$53.9 million ($2.2 M-$2.7 M annually) from the governmental perspective.ConclusionVaccination with CD-JEV in the Philippines is projected to be cost-effective, reducing long-term costs associated with JE illness and improving health outcomes compared to no vaccination.

Project description:BackgroundThe introduction of a conjugate vaccine for serogroup A Neisseria meningitidis has dramatically reduced disease in the African meningitis belt. In this context, important questions remain about the performance of different vaccine policies that target remaining serogroups. Here, we estimate the health impact and cost associated with several alternative vaccination policies in Burkina Faso.Methods and findingsWe developed and calibrated a mathematical model of meningococcal transmission to project the disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted and costs associated with the current Base policy (serogroup A conjugate vaccination at 9 months, as part of the Expanded Program on Immunization [EPI], plus district-specific reactive vaccination campaigns using polyvalent meningococcal polysaccharide [PMP] vaccine in response to outbreaks) and three alternative policies: (1) Base Prime: novel polyvalent meningococcal conjugate (PMC) vaccine replaces the serogroup A conjugate in EPI and is also used in reactive campaigns; (2) Prevention 1: PMC used in EPI and in a nationwide catch-up campaign for 1-18-year-olds; and (3) Prevention 2: Prevention 1, except the nationwide campaign includes individuals up to 29 years old. Over a 30-year simulation period, Prevention 2 would avert 78% of the meningococcal cases (95% prediction interval: 63%-90%) expected under the Base policy if serogroup A is not replaced by remaining serogroups after elimination, and would avert 87% (77%-93%) of meningococcal cases if complete strain replacement occurs. Compared to the Base policy and at the PMC vaccine price of US$4 per dose, strategies that use PMC vaccine (i.e., Base Prime and Preventions 1 and 2) are expected to be cost saving if strain replacement occurs, and would cost US$51 (-US$236, US$490), US$188 (-US$97, US$626), and US$246 (-US$53, US$703) per DALY averted, respectively, if strain replacement does not occur. An important potential limitation of our study is the simplifying assumption that all circulating meningococcal serogroups can be aggregated into a single group; while this assumption is critical for model tractability, it would compromise the insights derived from our model if the effectiveness of the vaccine differs markedly between serogroups or if there are complex between-serogroup interactions that influence the frequency and magnitude of future meningitis epidemics.ConclusionsOur results suggest that a vaccination strategy that includes a catch-up nationwide immunization campaign in young adults with a PMC vaccine and the addition of this new vaccine into EPI is cost-effective and would avert a substantial portion of meningococcal cases expected under the current World Health Organization-recommended strategy of reactive vaccination. This analysis is limited to Burkina Faso and assumes that polyvalent vaccines offer equal protection against all meningococcal serogroups; further studies are needed to evaluate the robustness of this assumption and applicability for other countries in the meningitis belt.

Project description:Globally, an estimated 2.5 billion people lack access to improved sanitation. Unimproved sanitation increases the risk of morbidity and mortality, especially in protracted refugee situations where sanitation is based on pit latrine use. Once the pit is full, waste remains in the pit, necessitating the construction of a new latrine, straining available land and funding resources. A viable, sustainable solution is needed. This study used qualitative and quantitative methods to design, implement, and pilot a novel sanitation system in Kakuma refugee camp, Kenya. An initial round of 12 pre-implementation focus group discussions (FGDs) were conducted with Dinka and Somali residents to understand sanitation practices, perceptions, and needs. FGDs and a supplementary pre-implementation survey informed the development of an innovative sanitation management system that incorporated the provision of urine and liquid-diverting toilets, which separate urine and fecal waste, and a service-based sanitation system that included weekly waste collection. The new system was implemented on a pilot scale for 6 weeks. During the implementation, bi-weekly surveys were administered in each study household to monitor user perceptions and challenges. At the end of the pilot, the sanitation system was assessed using a second round of four post-implementation FGDs. Those who piloted the new sanitation system reported high levels of user satisfaction. Reported benefits included odor reduction, insect/pest reduction, the sitting design, the appropriateness for special populations, and waste collection. However, urine and liquid diversion presented a challenge for users who perform anal washing and for women who had experienced female genital mutilation. Refugee populations are often culturally and ethnically diverse. Using residents' input to inform the development of sanitation solutions can increase user acceptability and provide opportunities to improve sanitation system designs based on specific needs.

Project description:Oral cholera vaccines (OCVs) are relatively new public health interventions, and limited data exist on the potential impact of OCV use on traditional cholera prevention and control measures-safe water, sanitation and hygiene (WaSH). To assess OCV acceptability and knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAPs) regarding cholera and WaSH, we conducted cross-sectional surveys, 1 month before (baseline) and 3 and 12 months after (first and second follow-up) a preemptive OCV campaign in Maela, a long-standing refugee camp on the Thailand-Burma border. We randomly selected households for the surveys, and administered questionnaires to female heads of households. In total, 271 (77%), 187 (81%), and 199 (85%) households were included in the baseline, first and second follow-up surveys, respectively. Anticipated OCV acceptability was 97% at baseline, and 91% and 85% of household members were reported to have received 1 and 2 OCV doses at first follow-up. Compared with baseline, statistically significant differences (95% Wald confidence interval not overlapping zero) were noted at first and second follow-up among the proportions of respondents who correctly identified two or more means of cholera prevention (62% versus 78% and 80%), reported boiling or treating drinking water (19% versus 44% and 69%), and washing hands with soap (66% versus 77% and 85%); a significant difference was also observed in the proportion of households with soap available at handwashing areas (84% versus 90% and 95%), consistent with reported behaviors. No significant difference was noted in the proportion of households testing positive for Escherichia coli in stored household drinking water at second follow-up (39% versus 49% and 34%). Overall, we observed some positive, and no negative changes in cholera- and WaSH-related KAPs after an OCV campaign in Maela refugee camp. OCV campaigns may provide opportunities to reinforce beneficial WaSH-related KAPs for comprehensive cholera prevention and control.

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Comparing alternative cholera vaccination strategies in Maela refugee camp: using a transmission model in public health practice.

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Comparing alternative cholera vaccination strategies in Maela refugee camp: using a transmission model in public health practice.

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