Dataset Information

Multimodal Machine Learning-based Knee Osteoarthritis Progression Prediction from Plain Radiographs and Clinical Data.

ABSTRACT: Knee osteoarthritis (OA) is the most common musculoskeletal disease without a cure, and current treatment options are limited to symptomatic relief. Prediction of OA progression is a very challenging and timely issue, and it could, if resolved, accelerate the disease modifying drug development and ultimately help to prevent millions of total joint replacement surgeries performed annually. Here, we present a multi-modal machine learning-based OA progression prediction model that utilises raw radiographic data, clinical examination results and previous medical history of the patient. We validated this approach on an independent test set of 3,918 knee images from 2,129 subjects. Our method yielded area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.79 (0.78-0.81) and Average Precision (AP) of 0.68 (0.66-0.70). In contrast, a reference approach, based on logistic regression, yielded AUC of 0.75 (0.74-0.77) and AP of 0.62 (0.60-0.64). The proposed method could significantly improve the subject selection process for OA drug-development trials and help the development of personalised therapeutic plans.

SUBMITTER: Tiulpin A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6934728 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Multimodal Machine Learning-based Knee Osteoarthritis Progression Prediction from Plain Radiographs and Clinical Data.

Tiulpin Aleksei A Klein Stefan S Bierma-Zeinstra Sita M A SMA Thevenot Jérôme J Rahtu Esa E Meurs Joyce van JV Oei Edwin H G EHG Saarakkala Simo S

Scientific reports 20191227 1

Knee osteoarthritis (OA) is the most common musculoskeletal disease without a cure, and current treatment options are limited to symptomatic relief. Prediction of OA progression is a very challenging and timely issue, and it could, if resolved, accelerate the disease modifying drug development and ultimately help to prevent millions of total joint replacement surgeries performed annually. Here, we present a multi-modal machine learning-based OA progression prediction model that utilises raw radi ...[more]

PMID: 31882803

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Project description:Background The methods for assessing knee osteoarthritis (OA) do not provide enough comprehensive information to make robust and accurate outcome predictions. Purpose To develop a deep learning (DL) prediction model for risk of OA progression by using knee radiographs in patients who underwent total knee replacement (TKR) and matched control patients who did not undergo TKR. Materials and Methods In this retrospective analysis that used data from the OA Initiative, a DL model on knee radiographs was developed to predict both the likelihood of a patient undergoing TKR within 9 years and Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) grade. Study participants included a case-control matched subcohort between 45 and 79 years. Patients were matched to control patients according to age, sex, ethnicity, and body mass index. The proposed model used a transfer learning approach based on the ResNet34 architecture with sevenfold nested cross-validation. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and conditional logistic regression assessed model performance for predicting probability and risk of TKR compared with clinical observations and two binary outcome prediction models on the basis of radiographic readings: KL grade and OA Research Society International (OARSI) grade. Results Evaluated were 728 participants including 324 patients (mean age, 64 years ± 8 [standard deviation]; 222 women) and 324 control patients (mean age, 64 years ± 8; 222 women). The prediction model based on DL achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.87 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.85, 0.90), outperforming a baseline prediction model by using KL grade with an AUC of 0.74 (95% CI: 0.71, 0.77; P < .001). The risk for TKR increased with probability that a person will undergo TKR from the DL model (odds ratio [OR], 7.7; 95% CI: 2.3, 25; P < .001), KL grade (OR, 1.92; 95% CI: 1.17, 3.13; P = .009), and OARSI grade (OR, 1.20; 95% CI: 0.41, 3.50; P = .73). Conclusion The proposed deep learning model better predicted risk of total knee replacement in osteoarthritis than did binary outcome models by using standard grading systems. © RSNA, 2020 Online supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Richardson in this issue.

Project description:OBJECTIVE:Knee osteoarthritis (KOA) is a heterogeneous condition representing a variety of potentially distinct phenotypes. The purpose of this study was to apply innovative machine learning approaches to KOA phenotyping in order to define progression phenotypes that are potentially more responsive to interventions. DESIGN:We used publicly available data from the Foundation for the National Institutes of Health (FNIH) osteoarthritis (OA) Biomarkers Consortium, where radiographic (medial joint space narrowing of ?0.7 mm), and pain progression (increase of ?9 Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index [WOMAC] points) were defined at 48 months, as four mutually exclusive outcome groups (none, both, pain only, radiographic only), along with an extensive set of covariates. We applied distance weighted discrimination (DWD), direction-projection-permutation (DiProPerm) testing, and clustering methods to focus on the contrast (z-scores) between those progressing by both criteria ("progressors") and those progressing by neither ("non-progressors"). RESULTS:Using all observations (597 individuals, 59% women, mean age 62 years and BMI 31 kg/m2) and all 73 baseline variables available in the dataset, there was a clear separation among progressors and non-progressors (z = 10.1). Higher z-scores were seen for the magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based variables than for demographic/clinical variables or biochemical markers. Baseline variables with the greatest contribution to non-progression at 48 months included WOMAC pain, lateral meniscal extrusion, and serum N-terminal pro-peptide of collagen IIA (PIIANP), while those contributing to progression included bone marrow lesions, osteophytes, medial meniscal extrusion, and urine C-terminal crosslinked telopeptide type II collagen (CTX-II). CONCLUSIONS:Using methods that provide a way to assess numerous variables of different types and scalings simultaneously in relation to an outcome of interest enabled a data-driven approach that identified key variables associated with a progression phenotype.

Project description:OBJECTIVE:Osteoarthritis (OA) is a disease with a substantial public health burden. Quantitative assessments of periarticular bone may be a biomarker capable of monitoring early disease progression. The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether measures of periarticular bone associate with longitudinal structural progression. METHODS:We conducted a 12-18 months longitudinal study using the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI). Participants received knee dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA), trabecular magnetic resonance (MR) imaging, and x-rays. Knee DXAs generated proximal tibial medial:lateral periarticular bone mineral density (paBMD) measures. Proximal tibial trabecular MR images were assessed for trabecular morphometry: apparent bone volume fraction (BVF), trabecular number, thickness, and spacing. Weight-bearing x-rays were assessed for medial tibiofemoral joint space narrowing (JSN). Chi-squared analyses assessed whether periarticular bone measures were predictive of worsening medial tibiofemoral JSN, adjusted for age, sex, and BMI. RESULTS:In all, 444 participants, mean age 64.2 ± 9.2 years, BMI 29.5 ± 4.6kg/m2, and 52% male at baseline. Medial JSN (radiographic progression) occurred in 40 participants (9%). Higher baseline medial:lateral paBMD, apparent BVF, trabecular number and thickness, and lower baseline and decreased trabecular spacing were all associated with more progression of JSN in the medial compartment. From lowest to highest baseline medial:lateral paBMD quartile groups, 2%, 5%, 11%, and 18% had medial JSN progression, respectively, between the 36- and 48-month visits, p-values = 0.001 and 0.002 unadjusted and adjusted. The rate of change in medial:lateral paBMD, apparent BVF, and spacing were associated with more medial JSN. For rate of medial:lateral paBMD change from lowest to highest quartile, the proportion of each group that experienced medial JSN progression were 5%, 5%, 11%, and 18%, with an unadjusted and adjusted p-value of 0.005. CONCLUSION:Baseline and most rates of periarticular bone change associate with knee OA structural progression, highlighting the close relationship between subchondral bone and JSN. Future studies should focus on developing these measures as predictive and pathophysiological biomarkers, and evaluating their deployment in clinical trials testing bone-targeted therapeutics.

Project description:Knee osteoarthritis (KOA) is characterized by pain and decreased gait function. We aimed to find KOA-related gait features based on patient reported outcome measures (PROMs) and develop regression models using machine learning algorithms to estimate KOA severity. The study included 375 volunteers with variable KOA grades. The severity of KOA was determined using the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC). WOMAC scores were used to classify disease severity into three groups. A total of 1087 features were extracted from the gait data. An ANOVA and student's t-test were performed and only features that were significant were selected for inclusion in the machine learning algorithm. Three WOMAC subscales (physical function, pain and stiffness) were further divided into three classes. An ANOVA was performed to determine which selected features were significantly related to the subscales. Both linear regression models and a random forest regression was used to estimate patient the WOMAC scores. Forty-three features were selected based on ANOVA and student's t-test results. The following number of features were selected from each joint: 12 from hip, 1 feature from pelvic, 17 features from knee, 9 features from ankle, 1 feature from foot, and 3 features from spatiotemporal parameters. A significance level of < 0.0001 and < 0.00003 was set for the ANOVA and t-test, respectively. The physical function, pain, and stiffness subscales were related to 41, 10, and 16 features, respectively. Linear regression models showed a correlation of 0.723 and the machine learning algorithm showed a correlation of 0.741. The severity of KOA was predicted by gait analysis features, which were incorporated to develop an objective estimation model for KOA severity. The identified features may serve as a tool to guide rehabilitation and progress assessments. In addition, the estimation model presented here suggests an approach for clinical application of gait analysis data for KOA evaluation.

Dataset Information

Multimodal Machine Learning-based Knee Osteoarthritis Progression Prediction from Plain Radiographs and Clinical Data.

Publications

Multimodal Machine Learning-based Knee Osteoarthritis Progression Prediction from Plain Radiographs and Clinical Data.

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