Dataset Information

Epidemiological characteristics of bacillary dysentery from 2009 to 2016 and its incidence prediction model based on meteorological factors.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:This study aimed to analyse the epidemiological characteristics of bacillary dysentery (BD) caused by Shigella in Chongqing, China, and to establish incidence prediction models based on the correlation between meteorological factors and BD, thus providing a scientific basis for the prevention and control of BD. METHODS:In this study, descriptive methods were employed to investigate the epidemiological distribution of BD. The Boruta algorithm was used to estimate the correlation between meteorological factors and BD incidence. The genetic algorithm (GA) combined with support vector regression (SVR) was used to establish the prediction models for BD incidence. RESULTS:In total, 68,855 cases of BD were included. The incidence declined from 36.312/100,000 to 23.613/100,000, with an obvious seasonal peak from May to October. Males were more predisposed to the infection than females (the ratio was 1.118:1). Children < 5?years old comprised the highest incidence (295.892/100,000) among all age categories, and pre-education children comprised the highest proportion (34,658 cases, 50.335%) among all occupational categories. Eight important meteorological factors, including the highest temperature, average temperature, average air pressure, precipitation and sunshine, were correlated with the monthly incidence of BD. The obtained mean absolute percent error (MAPE), mean squared error (MSE) and squared correlation coefficient (R2) of GA_SVR_MONTH values were 0.087, 0.101 and 0.922, respectively. CONCLUSION:From 2009 to 2016, BD incidence in Chongqing was still high, especially in the main urban areas and among the male and pre-education children populations. Eight meteorological factors, including temperature, air pressure, precipitation and sunshine, were the most important correlative feature sets of BD incidence. Moreover, BD incidence prediction models based on meteorological factors had better prediction accuracies. The findings in this study could provide a panorama of BD in Chongqing and offer a useful approach for predicting the incidence of infectious disease. Furthermore, this information could be used to improve current interventions and public health planning.

SUBMITTER: Meng Q

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6935186 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Epidemiological characteristics of bacillary dysentery from 2009 to 2016 and its incidence prediction model based on meteorological factors.

Meng Qiuyu Q Liu Xun X Xie Jiajia J Xiao Dayong D Wang Yi Y Deng Dan D

Environmental health and preventive medicine 20191228 1

<h4>Background</h4>This study aimed to analyse the epidemiological characteristics of bacillary dysentery (BD) caused by Shigella in Chongqing, China, and to establish incidence prediction models based on the correlation between meteorological factors and BD, thus providing a scientific basis for the prevention and control of BD.<h4>Methods</h4>In this study, descriptive methods were employed to investigate the epidemiological distribution of BD. The Boruta algorithm was used to estimate the cor ...[more]

PMID: 31883513

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Project description:BackgroundUnderstanding the association between floods and bacillary dysentery (BD) incidence is necessary for us to assess the health risk of extreme weather events. This study aims at exploring the association between floods and daily bacillary dysentery cases in main urban areas of Chongqing between 2005 and 2016 as well as evaluating the attributable risk from floods.MethodsThe association between floods and daily bacillary dysentery cases was evaluated by using distributed lag non-linear model, controlling for meteorological factors, long-term trend, seasonality, and day of week. The fraction and number of bacillary dysentery cases attributable to floods was calculated. Subgroup analyses were conducted to explore the association across age, gender, and occupation.ResultsAfter controlling the impact of temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, long-term trend, and seasonality, a significant lag effect of floods on bacillary dysentery cases was found at 0-day, 3-day, and 4-day lag, and the cumulative relative risk (CRR) over a 7-lag day period was 1.393 (95%CI 1.216-1.596). Male had higher risk than female. People under 5 years old and people aged 15-64 years old had significantly higher risk. Students, workers, and children had significantly higher risk. During the study period, based on 7-lag days, the attributable fraction of bacillary dysentery cases due to floods was 1.10% and the attributable number was 497 persons.ConclusionsThis study confirms that floods can increase the risk of bacillary dysentery incidence in main urban areas of Chongqing within an accurate time scale, the risk of bacillary dysentery caused by floods is still serious. The key population includes male, people under 5 years old, students, workers, and children. Considering the lag effect of floods on bacillary dysentery, the government and public health emergency departments should advance to the emergency health response in order to minimize the potential risk of floods on public.

Project description:ImportanceThe World Health Organization End TB (Tuberculosis) Strategy aims to decrease the global incidence and mortality of TB by 90% and 95%, respectively, as of 2035.ObjectiveTo characterize the recent epidemiological trend of pulmonary TB (PTB) in mainland China based on the national surveillance data.Design, setting, and participantsThis cross-sectional study collected demographic and clinical data of all patients reported in the national Tuberculosis Information Management System of China from January 1, 2005, to November 21, 2016. Data were analyzed from December 1, 2019, to July 31, 2020.ExposuresPulmonary TB was defined as bacteriologically confirmed or clinically diagnosed TB in the lung parenchyma or the tracheobronchial tree.Main outcomes and measuresTemporal and spatial variation of annual incidence and demographic features of PTB in mainland China.ResultsIn total, 10 582 903 patients with PTB were reported in mainland China from 2005 to 2016. The median age of patients with PTB was 46 (interquartile range [IQR], 30-61) years, and 28.53% were 60 years or older. Most patients with PTB were male (69.8%) and farmers or herders (70.0%). The mean (SD) incidence of PTB was 66.61 (8.09) per 100 000 population. The annual incidence decreased from 72.95 per 100 000 population in 2005 to 52.18 per 100 000 population in 2016, and the reduction was greater in the eastern and central regions (31.6%; from 69.43 to 47.48 per 100 000 population) than in the western region (21.0%; from 82.06 to 64.82 per 100 000 population). Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (135.03 per 100 000 population), Guizhou Province (115.98 per 100 000 population), and the Tibet Autonomous Region (101.98 per 100 000 population) had the highest mean annual incidences. The median time from onset of illness to diagnosis decreased from 36 (IQR, 16-92) days from 2005 to 2007 to 31 (IQR, 15-63) days in 2008 and later (P < .001) and was longer in the western region than in the eastern and central regions (41 [IQR, 20-91] vs 30 [IQR, 13-61] days; P < .001).Conclusions and relevanceAlthough this study found that the incidence of PTB in mainland China showed a downward trend from 2005 to 2016, to achieve the World Health Organization 2035 goal, innovative and more efficient prevention and control strategies are needed, particularly among the most susceptible population, that is, farmers and herders in western China.

Dataset Information

Epidemiological characteristics of bacillary dysentery from 2009 to 2016 and its incidence prediction model based on meteorological factors.

Publications

Epidemiological characteristics of bacillary dysentery from 2009 to 2016 and its incidence prediction model based on meteorological factors.

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