Dataset Information

Nonlinear and threshold of the association between meteorological factors and bacillary dysentery in Beijing, China.

ABSTRACT: Previous studies examining the weather-bacillary dysentery association were of a large time scale (monthly or weekly) and examined the linear relationship without checking the linearity assumption. We examined this association in Beijing at a daily scale based on the exposure-response curves using generalized additive models. Our analyses suggested that there were thresholds for effects of temperature and relative humidity, with an approximately linear effect for temperature >12·5 °C [excess risk (ER) for 1 °C increase: 1·06%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0·63-1·49 on lag day 3] and for relative humidity >40% (ER for 1% increase: 0·18%, 95% CI 0·12-0·24 at lag day 4); and there were linear effects of rainfall (ER for 1-mm increase: 0·22%, 95% CI 0·12-0·32), negative effects for wind speed (ER: -2·91%, 95% CI -4·28 to -1·52 at lag day 3) and sunshine duration (ER: -0·25% 95% CI -0·43 to -0·07 at lag day 4). This study suggests that there are thresholds for the effects of temperature and relative humidity on bacillary dysentery, and these findings should be considered in its prevention and control programmes.

SUBMITTER: Li ZJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9150982 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Nonlinear and threshold of the association between meteorological factors and bacillary dysentery in Beijing, China.

Li Z J ZJ Zhang X J XJ Hou X X XX Xu S S Zhang J S JS Song H B HB Lin H L HL

Epidemiology and infection 20150601 16

Previous studies examining the weather-bacillary dysentery association were of a large time scale (monthly or weekly) and examined the linear relationship without checking the linearity assumption. We examined this association in Beijing at a daily scale based on the exposure-response curves using generalized additive models. Our analyses suggested that there were thresholds for effects of temperature and relative humidity, with an approximately linear effect for temperature >12·5 °C [excess ris ...[more]

PMID: 26027678

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Project description:BACKGROUND:This study aimed to analyse the epidemiological characteristics of bacillary dysentery (BD) caused by Shigella in Chongqing, China, and to establish incidence prediction models based on the correlation between meteorological factors and BD, thus providing a scientific basis for the prevention and control of BD. METHODS:In this study, descriptive methods were employed to investigate the epidemiological distribution of BD. The Boruta algorithm was used to estimate the correlation between meteorological factors and BD incidence. The genetic algorithm (GA) combined with support vector regression (SVR) was used to establish the prediction models for BD incidence. RESULTS:In total, 68,855 cases of BD were included. The incidence declined from 36.312/100,000 to 23.613/100,000, with an obvious seasonal peak from May to October. Males were more predisposed to the infection than females (the ratio was 1.118:1). Children < 5 years old comprised the highest incidence (295.892/100,000) among all age categories, and pre-education children comprised the highest proportion (34,658 cases, 50.335%) among all occupational categories. Eight important meteorological factors, including the highest temperature, average temperature, average air pressure, precipitation and sunshine, were correlated with the monthly incidence of BD. The obtained mean absolute percent error (MAPE), mean squared error (MSE) and squared correlation coefficient (R2) of GA_SVR_MONTH values were 0.087, 0.101 and 0.922, respectively. CONCLUSION:From 2009 to 2016, BD incidence in Chongqing was still high, especially in the main urban areas and among the male and pre-education children populations. Eight meteorological factors, including temperature, air pressure, precipitation and sunshine, were the most important correlative feature sets of BD incidence. Moreover, BD incidence prediction models based on meteorological factors had better prediction accuracies. The findings in this study could provide a panorama of BD in Chongqing and offer a useful approach for predicting the incidence of infectious disease. Furthermore, this information could be used to improve current interventions and public health planning.

Dataset Information

Nonlinear and threshold of the association between meteorological factors and bacillary dysentery in Beijing, China.

Publications

Nonlinear and threshold of the association between meteorological factors and bacillary dysentery in Beijing, China.

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