Browse
Submit Data
Databases
API
Help

Dataset Information

0 Views

0 Connections

0 Citations

0 Reanalyses

0 Downloads

Omics score: 0

Attributing extreme fire risk in Western Canada to human emissions.

ABSTRACT: Canada is expected to see an increase in fire risk under future climate projections. Large fires, such as that near Fort McMurray, Alberta in 2016, can be devastating to the communities affected. Understanding the role of human emissions in the occurrence of such extreme fire events can lend insight into how these events might change in the future. An event attribution framework is used to quantify the influence of anthropogenic forcings on extreme fire risk in the current climate of a western Canada region. Fourteen metrics from the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System are used to define the extreme fire seasons. For the majority of these metrics and during the current decade, the combined effect of anthropogenic and natural forcing is estimated to have made extreme fire risk events in the region 1.5 to 6 times as likely compared to a climate that would have been with natural forcings alone.

SUBMITTER: Kirchmeier-Young MC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6961511 | biostudies-literature | 2017

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Json Xml

Publications

Attributing extreme fire risk in Western Canada to human emissions.

Kirchmeier-Young Megan C MC Zwiers Francis W FW Gillett Nathan P NP Cannon Alex J AJ

Climatic change 20170715 2

Canada is expected to see an increase in fire risk under future climate projections. Large fires, such as that near Fort McMurray, Alberta in 2016, can be devastating to the communities affected. Understanding the role of human emissions in the occurrence of such extreme fire events can lend insight into how these events might change in the future. An event attribution framework is used to quantify the influence of anthropogenic forcings on extreme fire risk in the current climate of a western C ...[more]

PMID: 32009687

Similar Datasets

Human-driven greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions cause distinct regional impacts on extreme fire weather.

Project description:Attribution studies have identified a robust anthropogenic fingerprint in increased 21st century wildfire risk. However, the risks associated with individual aspects of anthropogenic aerosol and greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions, biomass burning and land use/land cover change remain unknown. Here, we use new climate model large ensembles isolating these influences to show that GHG-driven increases in extreme fire weather conditions have been balanced by aerosol-driven cooling throughout the 20th century. This compensation is projected to disappear due to future reductions in aerosol emissions, causing unprecedented increases in extreme fire weather risk in the 21st century as GHGs continue to rise. Changes to temperature and relative humidity drive the largest shifts in extreme fire weather conditions; this is particularly apparent over the Amazon, where GHGs cause a seven-fold increase by 2080. Our results allow increased understanding of the interacting roles of anthropogenic stressors in altering the regional expression of future wildfire risk.

| S-EPMC7801713 | biostudies-literature

Human-ignited fires result in more extreme fire behavior and ecosystem impacts.

Project description:California has experienced a rapid increase in burned area over the past several decades. Although fire behavior is known to be closely tied to ecosystem impacts, most analysis of changing fire regimes has focused solely on area burned. Here we present a standardized database of wildfire behavior, including daily fire rate-of-spread and fire radiative power for large, multiday wildfires in California during 2012-2018 using remotely-sensed active fire observations. We observe that human-ignited fires start at locations with lower tree cover and during periods with more extreme fire weather. These characteristics contribute to more explosive growth in the first few days following ignition for human-caused fires as compared to lightning-caused fires. The faster fire spread, in turn, yields a larger ecosystem impact, with tree mortality more than three times higher for fast-moving fires (>1 km day-1) than for slow moving fires (<0.5 km day-1). Our analysis shows how human-caused fires can amplify ecosystem impacts and highlights the importance of limiting human-caused fires during period of extreme fire weather for meeting forest conservation targets under scenarios of future change.

| S-EPMC9114381 | biostudies-literature

FLOWSA: A Python Package Attributing Resource Use, Waste, Emissions, and Other Flows to Industries.

Project description:Quantifying industry consumption or production of resources, wastes, emissions, and losses-collectively called flows-is a complex and evolving process. The attribution of flows to industries often requires allocating multiple data sources that span spatial and temporal scopes and contain varied levels of aggregation. Once calculated, datasets can quickly become outdated with new releases of source data. The US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) developed the open-source Flow Sector Attribution (FLOWSA) Python package to address the challenges surrounding attributing flows to US industrial and final-use sectors. Models capture flows drawn from or released to the environment by sectors, as well as flow transfers between sectors. Data on flow use and generation by source-defined activities are imported from providers and transformed into standardized tables but are otherwise numerically unchanged in preparation for modeling. FLOWSA sector attribution models allocate primary data sources to industries using secondary data sources and file mapping activities to sectors. Users can modify methodological, spatial, and temporal parameters to explore and compare the impact of sector attribution methodological changes on model results. The standardized data outputs from these models are used as the environmental data inputs into the latest version of USEPA's US Environmentally Extended Input-Output (USEEIO) models, life cycle models of US goods and services for ~400 categories. This communication demonstrates FLOWSA's capability by describing how to build models and providing select model results for US industry use of water, land, and employment. FLOWSA is available on GitHub, and many of the data outputs are available on the USEPA's Data Commons.

| S-EPMC9628186 | biostudies-literature

Balancing fire risk and human thermal comfort in fire-prone urban landscapes.

Project description:Vegetation in urban areas provides many essential ecosystem services. These services may be indirect, such as carbon sequestration and biological diversity, or direct, including microclimate regulation and cultural values. As the global population is becoming ever more urbanized these services will be increasingly vital to the quality of life in urban areas. Due to the combined effects of shading and evapotranspiration, trees have the potential to cool urban microclimates and mitigate urban heat, reduce thermal discomfort and help to create comfortable outdoor spaces for people. Understory vegetation in the form of shrubs and grass layers are also increasingly recognized for the positive role they play in human aesthetics and supporting biodiversity. However, in fire-prone urban landscapes there are risks associated with having denser and more complex vegetation in public open spaces. We investigated the effects of plant selection and planting arrangement on fire risk and human thermal comfort using the Forest Flammability Model and Physiological Equivalent Temperature (PET), to identify how planting arrangement can help balance the trade-offs between these risks and benefits. Our research demonstrated the importance of vertical separation of height strata and suggests that Clumped and Continuous planting arrangements are the most effective way of keeping complex vegetation in public open space to deliver the greatest human thermal comfort benefit while minimizing potential fire behaviour. This study provides an example of how existing research tools in multiple ecological fields can be combined to inform positive outcomes for people and nature in urban landscapes.

| S-EPMC6934286 | biostudies-literature

Chronic Diseases Associated With Mortality in British Columbia, Canada During the 2021 Western North America Extreme Heat Event.

Project description:Western North America experienced an unprecedented extreme heat event (EHE) in 2021, characterized by high temperatures and reduced air quality. There were approximately 740 excess deaths during the EHE in the province of British Columbia, making it one of the deadliest weather events in Canadian history. It is important to understand who is at risk of death during EHEs so that appropriate public health interventions can be developed. This study compares 1,614 deaths from 25 June to 02 July 2021 with 6,524 deaths on the same dates from 2012 to 2020 to examine differences in the prevalence of 26 chronic diseases between the two groups. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate the odds ratio (OR) for each chronic disease, adjusted for age, sex, and all other diseases, and conditioned on geographic area. The OR [95% confidence interval] for schizophrenia among all EHE deaths was 3.07 [2.39, 3.94], and was larger than the ORs for other conditions. Chronic kidney disease and ischemic heart disease were also significantly increased among all EHE deaths, with ORs of 1.36 [1.18, 1.56] and 1.18 [1.00, 1.38], respectively. Chronic diseases associated with EHE mortality were somewhat different for deaths attributed to extreme heat, deaths with an unknown/pending cause, and non-heat-related deaths. Schizophrenia was the only condition associated with significantly increased odds of EHE mortality in all three subgroups. These results confirm the role of mental illness in EHE risk and provide further impetus for interventions that target specific groups of high-risk individuals based on underlying chronic conditions.

| S-EPMC10015851 | biostudies-literature

Attribution of the Influence of Human-Induced Climate Change on an Extreme Fire Season.

Project description:A record 1.2 million ha burned in British Columbia, Canada's extreme wildfire season of 2017. Key factors in this unprecedented event were the extreme warm and dry conditions that prevailed at the time, which are also reflected in extreme fire weather and behavior metrics. Using an event attribution method and a large ensemble of regional climate model simulations, we show that the risk factors affecting the event, and the area burned itself, were made substantially greater by anthropogenic climate change. We show over 95% of the probability for the observed maximum temperature anomalies is due to anthropogenic factors, that the event's high fire weather/behavior metrics were made 2-4 times more likely, and that anthropogenic climate change increased the area burned by a factor of 7-11. This profound influence of climate change on forest fire extremes in British Columbia, which is likely reflected in other regions and expected to intensify in the future, will require increasing attention in forest management, public health, and infrastructure.

| S-EPMC9285568 | biostudies-literature

Mercury risk to avian piscivores across western United States and Canada.

Project description:The widespread distribution of mercury (Hg) threatens wildlife health, particularly piscivorous birds. Western North America is a diverse region that provides critical habitat to many piscivorous bird species, and also has a well-documented history of mercury contamination from legacy mining and atmospheric deposition. The diversity of landscapes in the west limits the distribution of avian piscivore species, complicating broad comparisons across the region. Mercury risk to avian piscivores was evaluated across the western United States and Canada using a suite of avian piscivore species representing a variety of foraging strategies that together occur broadly across the region. Prey fish Hg concentrations were size-adjusted to the preferred size class of the diet for each avian piscivore (Bald Eagle=36cm, Osprey=30cm, Common and Yellow-billed Loon=15cm, Western and Clark's Grebe=6cm, and Belted Kingfisher=5cm) across each species breeding range. Using a combination of field and lab-based studies on Hg effect in a variety of species, wet weight blood estimates were grouped into five relative risk categories including: background (<0.5μg/g), low (0.5-1μg/g), moderate (1-2μg/g), high (2-3μg/g), and extra high (>3μg/g). These risk categories were used to estimate potential mercury risk to avian piscivores across the west at a 1degree-by-1degree grid cell resolution. Avian piscivores foraging on larger-sized fish generally were at a higher relative risk to Hg. Habitats with a relatively high risk included wetland complexes (e.g., prairie pothole in Saskatchewan), river deltas (e.g., San Francisco Bay, Puget Sound, Columbia River), and arid lands (Great Basin and central Arizona). These results indicate that more intensive avian piscivore sampling is needed across Western North America to generate a more robust assessment of exposure risk.

| S-EPMC5461577 | biostudies-literature

Climate regulation of fire emissions and deforestation in equatorial Asia.

Project description:Drainage of peatlands and deforestation have led to large-scale fires in equatorial Asia, affecting regional air quality and global concentrations of greenhouse gases. Here we used several sources of satellite data with biogeochemical and atmospheric modeling to better understand and constrain fire emissions from Indonesia, Malaysia, and Papua New Guinea during 2000-2006. We found that average fire emissions from this region [128 +/- 51 (1sigma) Tg carbon (C) year(-1), T = 10(12)] were comparable to fossil fuel emissions. In Borneo, carbon emissions from fires were highly variable, fluxes during the moderate 2006 El Niño more than 30 times greater than those during the 2000 La Niña (and with a 2000-2006 mean of 74 +/- 33 Tg C yr(-1)). Higher rates of forest loss and larger areas of peatland becoming vulnerable to fire in drought years caused a strong nonlinear relation between drought and fire emissions in southern Borneo. Fire emissions from Sumatra showed a positive linear trend, increasing at a rate of 8 Tg C year(-2) (approximately doubling during 2000-2006). These results highlight the importance of including deforestation in future climate agreements. They also imply that land manager responses to expected shifts in tropical precipitation may critically determine the strength of climate-carbon cycle feedbacks during the 21st century.

| S-EPMC2629304 | biostudies-literature

Cattle Feedlot Watering Bowls Western Canada

Project description:Water samples from Cattle Feedlot Watering Bowls Western Canada

| PRJNA820789 | ENA

Global change could amplify fire effects on soil greenhouse gas emissions.

Project description:BackgroundLittle is known about the combined impacts of global environmental changes and ecological disturbances on ecosystem functioning, even though such combined impacts might play critical roles in shaping ecosystem processes that can in turn feed back to climate change, such as soil emissions of greenhouse gases.Methodology/principal findingsWe took advantage of an accidental, low-severity wildfire that burned part of a long-term global change experiment to investigate the interactive effects of a fire disturbance and increases in CO(2) concentration, precipitation and nitrogen supply on soil nitrous oxide (N(2)O) emissions in a grassland ecosystem. We examined the responses of soil N(2)O emissions, as well as the responses of the two main microbial processes contributing to soil N(2)O production--nitrification and denitrification--and of their main drivers. We show that the fire disturbance greatly increased soil N(2)O emissions over a three-year period, and that elevated CO(2) and enhanced nitrogen supply amplified fire effects on soil N(2)O emissions: emissions increased by a factor of two with fire alone and by a factor of six under the combined influence of fire, elevated CO(2) and nitrogen. We also provide evidence that this response was caused by increased microbial denitrification, resulting from increased soil moisture and soil carbon and nitrogen availability in the burned and fertilized plots.Conclusions/significanceOur results indicate that the combined effects of fire and global environmental changes can exceed their effects in isolation, thereby creating unexpected feedbacks to soil greenhouse gas emissions. These findings highlight the need to further explore the impacts of ecological disturbances on ecosystem functioning in the context of global change if we wish to be able to model future soil greenhouse gas emissions with greater confidence.

| S-EPMC3110610 | biostudies-literature

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

OmicsDI is an Elixir interoperability service. Learn more ›

Tweets

OmicsDI Databases

PRIDE
PeptideAtlas
MassIVE
JPOST Repository
Physiome Model Repository

EGA
EVA
ENA
LINCS
PAXDB
Cell Collective

MetaboLights
Metabolomics Workbench
MetabolomeExpress
GNPS
BioModels
FAIRDOMHub

ArrayExpress
dbGaP
ExpressionAtlas
GEO
NODE

Information

Databases
Help
API
Contact us
Code on GitHub
Terms of use
Submit Data