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Exploring the causal pathway from ischemic stroke to atrial fibrillation: a network Mendelian randomization study.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE:Previous studies have found ischemic stroke is associated with atrial fibrillation. However, the causal association between ischemic stroke and atrial fibrillation is not clear. Furthermore, the network relationship among ischemic stroke, atrial fibrillation and its risk factors need further attention. This study aims to examine the potential causal association between ischemic stroke and atrial fibrillation and further to explore potential mediators in the causal pathway from ischemic stroke to atrial fibrillation. METHODS:Summary statistics from the ISGC (case?=?10,307 and control?=?19,326) were used as ischemic stroke genetic instruments, AFGen Consortium data (case?=?65,446 and control?=?522,744) were used for atrial fibrillation, and other consortia data were used for potential mediators (fasting insulin, white blood cell count, procalcitonin, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, body mass index, waist circumference, and height). Under the framework of network Mendelian randomization, two-sample Mendelian randomization study was performed using summary statistics from several genome-wide association studies. Inverse-variance weighted method was performed to estimate causal effect. RESULTS:Blood pressure mediates the causal pathways from ischemic stroke to atrial fibrillation. The total odds ratio of ischemic stroke on atrial fibrillation was 1.05 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02 to 1.07; P?=?1.3?×?10-5). One-unit increase of genetically determined ischemic stroke was associated with 0.02 (DBP: 95% CI, 0.001 to 0.034, P?=?0.029; SBP: 95% CI, 0.006 to 0.034, P?=?0.003) upper systolic and diastolic blood pressure levels. Higher genetically determined systolic and diastolic blood pressure levels were associated with higher atrial fibrillation risk (DBP: RR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.35; P?=?0.012. SBP: RR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.38; P?=?0.04). Specially, we also found the bidirectional causality between blood pressure and ischemic stroke. CONCLUSIONS:Our study provided a strong evidence that raised blood pressure in stroke patients increases the risk of atrial fibrillation and active acute blood pressure lowering can improve the outcome in ischemic stroke patients.

SUBMITTER: Hou L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6964084 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Exploring the causal pathway from ischemic stroke to atrial fibrillation: a network Mendelian randomization study.

Hou Lei L Xu Mingqing M Yu Yuanyuan Y Sun Xiaoru X Liu Xinhui X Liu Lu L Li Yunxia Y Yuan Tonghui T Li Wenchao W Li Hongkai H Xue Fuzhong F

Molecular medicine (Cambridge, Mass.) 20200115 1

<h4>Background and purpose</h4>Previous studies have found ischemic stroke is associated with atrial fibrillation. However, the causal association between ischemic stroke and atrial fibrillation is not clear. Furthermore, the network relationship among ischemic stroke, atrial fibrillation and its risk factors need further attention. This study aims to examine the potential causal association between ischemic stroke and atrial fibrillation and further to explore potential mediators in the causal ...[more]

PMID: 31941463

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Observational studies have identified an association between body mass index (BMI) and incident atrial fibrillation (AF). Inferring causality from observational studies, however, is subject to residual confounding, reverse causation, and bias. The primary objective of this study was to evaluate the causal association between BMI and AF by using genetic predictors of BMI. METHODS:We identified 51?646 individuals of European ancestry without AF at baseline from 7 prospective population-based cohorts initiated between 1987 and 2002 in the United States, Iceland, and the Netherlands with incident AF ascertained between 1987 and 2012. Cohort-specific mean follow-up ranged from 7.4 to 19.2 years, over which period there was a total of 4178 cases of incident AF. We performed a Mendelian randomization with instrumental variable analysis to estimate a cohort-specific causal hazard ratio for the association between BMI and AF. Two genetic instruments for BMI were used: FTO genotype (rs1558902) and a BMI gene score comprising 39 single-nucleotide polymorphisms identified by genome-wide association studies to be associated with BMI. Cohort-specific estimates were combined by random-effects, inverse variance-weighted meta-analysis. RESULTS:In age- and sex-adjusted meta-analysis, both genetic instruments were significantly associated with BMI (FTO: 0.43 [95% confidence interval, 0.32-0.54] kg/m2 per A-allele, P<0.001; BMI gene score: 1.05 [95% confidence interval, 0.90-1.20] kg/m2 per 1-U increase, P<0.001) and incident AF (FTO, hazard ratio, 1.07 [1.02-1.11] per A-allele, P=0.004; BMI gene score, hazard ratio, 1.11 [1.05-1.18] per 1-U increase, P<0.001). Age- and sex-adjusted instrumental variable estimates for the causal association between BMI and incident AF were hazard ratio, 1.15 (1.04-1.26) per kg/m2, P=0.005 (FTO) and 1.11 (1.05-1.17) per kg/m2, P<0.001 (BMI gene score). Both of these estimates were consistent with the meta-analyzed estimate between observed BMI and AF (age- and sex-adjusted hazard ratio 1.05 [1.04-1.06] per kg/m2, P<0.001). Multivariable adjustment did not significantly change findings. CONCLUSIONS:Our data are consistent with a causal relationship between BMI and incident AF. These data support the possibility that public health initiatives targeting primordial prevention of obesity may reduce the incidence of AF.

Project description:Background Observational associations between type 2 diabetes (T2D) and atrial fibrillation (AF) have been established, but causality remains undetermined. We performed Mendelian randomization (MR) to study causal effects of genetically predicted T2D on AF risk, independent of cardiometabolic risk factors. Methods and Results Instrumental variables included 182 uncorrelated single nucleotide polymorphisms associated with T2D at genome-wide significance (P <5×10-8). Genetic association estimates for cardiometabolic exposures were obtained from genome-wide association studies including 188 577 individuals for low-density lipoprotein-C, 694 649 individuals for body mass index, and 757 601 for systolic blood pressure. Two-sample, inverse-variance weighted MR formed the primary analyses. The MR-TRYX approach was used to dissect potential pleiotropic pathways, with multivariable MR performed to investigate cardiometabolic mediation. Genetically predicted T2D associated with increased AF liability in univariable MR (odds ratio [OR], 1.08 [95% CI, 1.02-1.13], P=0.003). Sensitivity analyses indicated potential pleiotropy, with radial MR identifying 4 outlier single nucleotide polymorphisms that were likely contributors. Phenomic scanning on MR-base and subsequent least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression allowed prioritization of 7 candidate traits. The outlier-adjusted effect estimate remained consistent with the original inverse-variance weighted estimate (OR, 1.07 [95% CI, 1.02-1.12], P=0.008). On multivariable MR, T2D remained associated with increased AF liability after adjustment for low-density lipoprotein-C and body mass index. Following adjustment for systolic blood pressure, the relationship between T2D and AF became nonsignificant (OR, 1.04 [95% CI, 0.95-1.13], P=0.40). Conclusions These data provide novel genetic evidence that while T2D likely causally associates with AF, mediation via systolic blood pressure exists. Endeavoring to lower systolic blood pressure alongside achieving normoglycemia may provide particular benefit on AF risk in patients with T2D.

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Exploring the causal pathway from ischemic stroke to atrial fibrillation: a network Mendelian randomization study.

Publications

Exploring the causal pathway from ischemic stroke to atrial fibrillation: a network Mendelian randomization study.

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