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A surrogate weighted mean ensemble method to reduce the uncertainty at a regional scale for the calculation of potential evapotranspiration.

ABSTRACT: We propose a weighted ensemble approach using a surrogate variable. As a case study, the degree of agreement (DOA) statistics for potential evapotranspiration (PET) was determined to compare the ordinary arithmetic mean ensemble (OAME) method and the surrogate weighted mean ensemble (SWME) method for three domains. Solar radiation was used as the surrogate variable to determine the weight values for the ensemble members. Singular vector decomposition with truncation values was used to select five ensemble members for the SWME method. The SWME method tended to have greater DOA statistics for PET than the OAME method with all available models. The distribution of PET values for the SWME method also had greater DOA statistics than that for the OAME method over relatively large spatial extent by month. These results suggest that the SWME method based on the weight value derived from the surrogate variable is suitable for exploiting both diversity and elitism to minimize the uncertainty of PET ensemble data. These findings could contribute to a better design of climate change adaptation options by improving confidence of PET projection data for the assessment of climate change impact on natural and agricultural ecosystems using the SWME method.

SUBMITTER: Yoo BH

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6972760 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A surrogate weighted mean ensemble method to reduce the uncertainty at a regional scale for the calculation of potential evapotranspiration.

Yoo Byoung Hyun BH Kim Junhwan J Lee Byun-Woo BW Hoogenboom Gerrit G Kim Kwang Soo KS

Scientific reports 20200121 1

We propose a weighted ensemble approach using a surrogate variable. As a case study, the degree of agreement (DOA) statistics for potential evapotranspiration (PET) was determined to compare the ordinary arithmetic mean ensemble (OAME) method and the surrogate weighted mean ensemble (SWME) method for three domains. Solar radiation was used as the surrogate variable to determine the weight values for the ensemble members. Singular vector decomposition with truncation values was used to select fiv ...[more]

PMID: 31964919

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Project description:Small scale distribution of insect root herbivores may promote plant species diversity by creating patches of different herbivore pressure. However, determinants of small scale distribution of insect root herbivores, and impact of land use intensity on their small scale distribution are largely unknown. We sampled insect root herbivores and measured vegetation parameters and soil water content along transects in grasslands of different management intensity in three regions in Germany. We calculated community-weighted mean plant traits to test whether the functional plant community composition determines the small scale distribution of insect root herbivores. To analyze spatial patterns in plant species and trait composition and insect root herbivore abundance we computed Mantel correlograms. Insect root herbivores mainly comprised click beetle (Coleoptera, Elateridae) larvae (43%) in the investigated grasslands. Total insect root herbivore numbers were positively related to community-weighted mean traits indicating high plant growth rates and biomass (specific leaf area, reproductive- and vegetative plant height), and negatively related to plant traits indicating poor tissue quality (leaf C/N ratio). Generalist Elaterid larvae, when analyzed independently, were also positively related to high plant growth rates and furthermore to root dry mass, but were not related to tissue quality. Insect root herbivore numbers were not related to plant cover, plant species richness and soil water content. Plant species composition and to a lesser extent plant trait composition displayed spatial autocorrelation, which was not influenced by land use intensity. Insect root herbivore abundance was not spatially autocorrelated. We conclude that in semi-natural grasslands with a high share of generalist insect root herbivores, insect root herbivores affiliate with large, fast growing plants, presumably because of availability of high quantities of food. Affiliation of insect root herbivores with large, fast growing plants may counteract dominance of those species, thus promoting plant diversity.

Dataset Information

A surrogate weighted mean ensemble method to reduce the uncertainty at a regional scale for the calculation of potential evapotranspiration.

Publications

A surrogate weighted mean ensemble method to reduce the uncertainty at a regional scale for the calculation of potential evapotranspiration.

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