Projected Population Benefit of Increased Effectiveness and Coverage of Influenza Vaccination on Influenza Burden in the United States.
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ABSTRACT: Background
Vaccination is the best way to prevent influenza; however, greater benefits could be achieved. To help guide research and policy agendas, we aimed to quantify the magnitude of influenza disease that would be prevented through targeted increases in vaccine effectiveness (VE) or vaccine coverage (VC).Methods
For 3 influenza seasons (2011-12, 2015-16, and 2017-18), we used a mathematical model to estimate the number of prevented influenza-associated illnesses, medically attended illnesses, and hospitalizations across 5 age groups. Compared with estimates of prevented illness during each season, given observed VE and VC, we explored the number of additional outcomes that would have been prevented from a 5% absolute increase in VE or VC or from achieving 60% VE or 70% VC.Results
During the 2017-18 season, compared with the burden already prevented by influenza vaccination, a 5% absolute VE increase would have prevented an additional 1 050 000 illnesses and 25 000 hospitalizations (76% among those aged ≥65 years), while achieving 60% VE would have prevented an additional 190 000 hospitalizations. A 5% VC increase would have resulted in 785 000 fewer illnesses (56% among those aged 18-64 years) and 11 000 fewer hospitalizations; reaching 70% would have prevented an additional 39 000 hospitalizations.Conclusions
Small, attainable improvements in effectiveness or VC of the influenza vaccine could lead to substantial additional reductions in the influenza burden in the United States. Improvements in VE would have the greatest impact in reducing hospitalizations in adults aged ≥65 years, and VC improvements would have the largest benefit in reducing illnesses in adults aged 18-49 years.
SUBMITTER: Hughes MM
PROVIDER: S-EPMC6980871 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:We describe a simplified model, based on the current economic and health effects of human papillomavirus (HPV), to estimate the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination of 12-year-old girls in the United States. Under base-case parameter values, the estimated cost per quality-adjusted life year gained by vaccination in the context of current cervical cancer screening practices in the United States ranged from $3,906 to $14,723 (2005 US dollars), depending on factors such as whether herd immunity effects were assumed; the types of HPV targeted by the vaccine; and whether the benefits of preventing anal, vaginal, vulvar, and oropharyngeal cancers were included. The results of our simplified model were consistent with published studies based on more complex models when key assumptions were similar. This consistency is reassuring because models of varying complexity will be essential tools for policy makers in the development of optimal HPV vaccination strategies.
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Project description:BackgroundSince 2009, Thailand has recommended influenza vaccine for children aged 6 months through 2 years, but no estimates of influenza vaccine coverage or effectiveness are available for this target group.MethodsDuring August 2011-May 2013, high-risk and healthy children aged ?36 months were enrolled in a 2-year prospective cohort study. Parents were contacted weekly about acute respiratory illness (ARI) in their child. Ill children had combined nasal and throat swabs tested for influenza viruses by real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction. Influenza vaccination status was verified with vaccination cards. The Cox proportional hazards approach was used to estimate hazard ratios. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) was estimated as 100% x (1-hazard ratio).ResultsDuring 2011-2013, 968 children were enrolled (median age, 10·3 months); 948 (97·9%) had a vaccination record and were included. Of these, 394 (41·6%) had ?1 medical conditions. Vaccination coverage for the 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 seasons was 29·3% (93/317) and 30·0% (197/656), respectively. In 2011-2012, there were 213 ARI episodes, of which 10 (4·6%) were influenza positive (2·3 per 1000 vaccinated and 3·8 per 1000 unvaccinated child-weeks). The VE was 55% (95% confidence interval [CI], -72, 88). In 2012-2013, there were 846 ARIs, of which 52 (6·2%) were influenza positive (1·8 per 1000 vaccinated and 4·5 per 1000 unvaccinated child-weeks). The VE was 64% (CI, 13%, 85%).ConclusionInfluenza vaccination coverage among young children in Thailand was low, although vaccination was moderately effective. Continued efforts are needed to increase influenza vaccination coverage and evaluate VE among young children in Thailand.
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Project description:Trivalent inactivated influenza vaccines (IIV3s) protect against 2 A strains and one B lineage; quadrivalent versions (IIV4s) protect against an additional B lineage. The objective was to assess projected health and economic outcomes associated with IIV4 versus IIV3 for preventing seasonal influenza in the US. A cost-effectiveness model was developed to interact with a dynamic transmission model. The transmission model tracked vaccination, influenza cases, infection-spreading interactions, and recovery over 10 y (2012-2022). The cost-effectiveness model estimated influenza-related complications, direct and indirect costs (2013-2014 US$), health outcomes, and cost-effectiveness. Inputs were taken from published/public sources or estimated using regression or calibration. Outcomes were discounted at 3% per year. Scenario analyses tested the reliability of the results. Seasonal vaccination with IIV4 versus IIV3 is predicted to reduce annual influenza cases by 1,973,849 (discounted; 2,325,644 undiscounted), resulting in 12-13% fewer cases and influenza-related complications and deaths. These reductions are predicted to translate into 18,485 more quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) accrued annually for IIV4 versus IIV3. Increased vaccine-related costs ($599 million; 5.7%) are predicted to be more than offset by reduced influenza treatment costs ($699 million; 12.2%), resulting in direct medical cost saving annually ($100 million; 0.6%). Including indirect costs, savings with IIV4 are predicted to be $7.1 billion (5.6%). Scenario analyses predict IIV4 to be cost-saving in all scenarios tested apart from low infectivity, where IIV4 is predicted to be cost-effective. In summary, seasonal influenza vaccination in the US with IIV4 versus IIV3 is predicted to improve health outcomes and reduce costs.
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Project description:With influenza vaccination rates in the United States recently exceeding 45% of the population, it is important to understand the impact that vaccination is having on influenza transmission. In this study, we used a Bayesian modeling approach, combined with a simple dynamical model of influenza transmission, to estimate this impact. The combined framework synthesized evidence from a range of data sources relating to influenza transmission and vaccination in the United States. We found that, for seasonal epidemics, the number of infections averted ranged from 9.6 million in the 2006-2007 season (95% credible interval (CI): 8.7, 10.9) to 37.2 million (95% CI: 34.1, 39.6) in the 2012-2013 season. Expressed in relative terms, the proportion averted ranged from 20.8% (95% CI: 16.8, 24.3) of potential infections in the 2011-2012 season to 47.5% (95% CI: 43.7, 50.8) in the 2008-2009 season. The percentage averted was only 1.04% (95% CI: 0.15, 3.2) for the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, owing to the late timing of the vaccination program in relation to the pandemic in the Northern hemisphere. In the future, further vaccination coverage, as well as improved influenza vaccines (especially those offering better protection in the elderly), could have an even stronger effect on annual influenza epidemics.
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