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Association of past dengue fever epidemics with the risk of Zika microcephaly at the population level in Brazil.

ABSTRACT: Despite all the research done on the first Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemics, it was only after the Brazilian epidemic that the Congenital Zika Syndrome was described. This was made possible due to the large number of babies born with microcephaly in the Northeast region (NE) in a narrow time. We hypothesize that the fivefold difference in the rate of microcephalic neonates between the NE and other regions is partially an effect of the population prior immunity against Dengue viruses (DENV), that cross-react with ZIKV. In this ecological study, we analysed the interaction between dengue fever epidemics from 2001 to 2014 and the 2015/2016 microcephaly epidemic in 400 microregions in Brazil using random-effects models under a Bayesian approach. The estimated effect of the time lag between the most recent large dengue epidemic (>400/100,000 inhabitants) and the microcephaly epidemic ranged from protection (up to 6 years prior) to an increased risk (from 7 to 12 years). This sustained window of protection, larger than described in previous longitudinal studies, is possibly an effect of herd immunity and of multiple exposures to DENV that could boost immunity.

SUBMITTER: Carvalho MS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7000767 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Association of past dengue fever epidemics with the risk of Zika microcephaly at the population level in Brazil.

Carvalho Marilia Sá MS Freitas Laís Picinini LP Cruz Oswaldo Gonçalves OG Brasil Patrícia P Bastos Leonardo Soares LS

Scientific reports 20200204 1

Despite all the research done on the first Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemics, it was only after the Brazilian epidemic that the Congenital Zika Syndrome was described. This was made possible due to the large number of babies born with microcephaly in the Northeast region (NE) in a narrow time. We hypothesize that the fivefold difference in the rate of microcephalic neonates between the NE and other regions is partially an effect of the population prior immunity against Dengue viruses (DENV), that cros ...[more]

PMID: 32019953

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Project description:BackgroundThe four Dengue viruses (DENV) serotypes were re-introduced in Brazil's Northeast region in a couple of decades, between 1980's and 2010's, where the DENV1 was the first detected serotype and DENV4 the latest. Zika (ZIKV) and Chikungunya (CHIKV) viruses were introduced in Recife around 2014 and led to large outbreaks in 2015 and 2016, respectively. However, the true extent of the ZIKV and CHIKV outbreaks, as well as the risk factors associated with exposure to these viruses remain vague.MethodsWe conducted a stratified multistage household serosurvey among residents aged between 5 and 65 years in the city of Recife, Northeast Brazil, from August 2018 to February 2019. The city neighborhoods were stratified and divided into high, intermediate, and low socioeconomic strata (SES). Previous ZIKV, DENV and CHIKV infections were detected by IgG-based enzyme linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA). Recent ZIKV and CHIKV infections were assessed through IgG3 and IgM ELISA, respectively. Design-adjusted seroprevalence were estimated by age group, sex, and SES. The ZIKV seroprevalence was adjusted to account for the cross-reactivity with dengue. Individual and household-related risk factors were analyzed through regression models to calculate the force of infection. Odds Ratio (OR) were estimated as measure of effect.Principal findingsA total of 2,070 residents' samples were collected and analyzed. The force of viral infection for high SES were lower as compared to low and intermediate SES. DENV seroprevalence was 88.7% (CI95%:87.0-90.4), and ranged from 81.2% (CI95%:76.9-85.6) in the high SES to 90.7% (CI95%:88.3-93.2) in the low SES. The overall adjusted ZIKV seroprevalence was 34.6% (CI95%:20.0-50.9), and ranged from 47.4% (CI95%:31.8-61.5) in the low SES to 23.4% (CI95%:12.2-33.8) in the high SES. The overall CHIKV seroprevalence was 35.7% (CI95%:32.6-38.9), and ranged from 38.6% (CI95%:33.6-43.6) in the low SES to 22.3% (CI95%:15.8-28.8) in the high SES. Surprisingly, ZIKV seroprevalence rapidly increased with age in the low and intermediate SES, while exhibited only a small increase with age in high SES. CHIKV seroprevalence according to age was stable in all SES. The prevalence of serological markers of ZIKV and CHIKV recent infections were 1.5% (CI95%:0.1-3.7) and 3.5% (CI95%:2.7-4.2), respectively.ConclusionsOur results confirmed continued DENV transmission and intense ZIKV and CHIKV transmission during the 2015/2016 epidemics followed by ongoing low-level transmission. The study also highlights that a significant proportion of the population is still susceptible to be infected by ZIKV and CHIKV. The reasons underlying a ceasing of the ZIKV epidemic in 2017/18 and the impact of antibody decay in susceptibility to future DENV and ZIKV infections may be related to the interplay between disease transmission mechanism and actual exposure in the different SES.

Project description:Laboratory confirmation of Zika virus (ZIKV) infection during pregnancy is challenging due to cross-reactivity with dengue virus (DENV) and limited knowledge about the kinetics of anti-Zika antibody responses during pregnancy. We described ZIKV and DENV serological markers and the maternal-fetal transfer of antibodies among mothers and neonates after the ZIKV microcephaly outbreak in Northeast Brazil (2016). We included 89 microcephaly cases and 173 neonate controls at time of birth and their mothers. Microcephaly cases were defined as newborns with a particular head circumference (2 SD below the mean). Two controls without microcephaly were matched by the expected date of delivery and area of residence. We tested maternal serum for recent (ZIKV genome, IgM and IgG3 anti-NS1) and previous (ZIKV and DENV neutralizing antibodies [NAbs]) markers of infection. Multiple markers of recent or previous ZIKV and DENV infection in mothers were analyzed using principal component analysis (PCA). At delivery, 5.6% of microcephaly case mothers and 1.7% of control mothers were positive for ZIKV IgM. Positivity for ZIKV IgG3 anti-NS1 was 8.0% for case mothers and 3.5% for control mothers. ZIKV NAbs was slightly higher among mothers of cases (69.6%) than that of mothers of controls (57.2%; p = 0.054). DENV exposure was detected in 85.8% of all mothers. PCA discriminated two distinct components related to recent or previous ZIKV infection and DENV exposure. ZIKV NAbs were higher in newborns than in their corresponding mothers (p<0.001). We detected a high frequency of ZIKV exposure among mothers after the first wave of the ZIKV outbreak in Northeast Brazil. However, we found low sensitivity of the serological markers to recent infection (IgM and IgG3 anti-NS1) in perinatal samples of mothers of microcephaly cases. Since the neutralization test cannot precisely determine the time of infection, testing for ZIKV immune status should be performed as early as possible and throughout pregnancy to monitor acute Zika infection in endemic areas.

Project description:BACKGROUND: Dengue, an infectious tropical disease, has recently emerged as one of the most important mosquito-borne viral diseases in the world. We perform a retrospective analysis of the 2011 dengue fever epidemic in Pakistan in order to assess the transmissibility of the disease. We obtain estimates of the basic reproduction number R 0 from epidemic data using different methodologies applied to different epidemic models in order to evaluate the robustness of our estimate. RESULTS: We first estimate model parameters by fitting a deterministic ODE vector-host model for the transmission dynamics of single-strain dengue to the epidemic data, using both a basic ordinary least squares (OLS) as well as a generalized least squares (GLS) scheme. Moreover, we perform the same analysis for a direct-transmission ODE model, thereby allowing us to compare our results across different models. In addition, we formulate a direct-transmission stochastic model for the transmission dynamics of dengue and obtain parameter estimates for the stochastic model using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. In each of the cases we have considered, the estimate for the basic reproduction number R 0 is initially greater than unity leading to an epidemic outbreak. However, control measures implemented several weeks after the initial outbreak successfully reduce R 0 to less than unity, thus resulting in disease elimination. Furthermore, it is observed that there is strong agreement in our estimates for the pre-control value of R 0, both across different methodologies as well across different models. However, there are also significant differences between our estimates for the post-control value of the basic reproduction number across the two different models. CONCLUSION: In conclusion, we have obtained robust estimates for the value of the basic reproduction number R 0 associated with the 2011 dengue fever epidemic before the implementation of public health control measures. Furthermore, we have shown that there is close agreement between our estimates for the post-control value of R 0 across the different methodologies. Nevertheless, there are also significant differences between the estimates for the post-control value of R 0 across the two different models.

Project description:The Zika virus (ZIKV) has rapidly reached epidemic proportions, especially in northeastern Brazil, and has rapidly spread to other parts of the Americas. A recent increase in the prevalence of microcephaly in newborn infants and vision-threatening findings in these infants is likely associated with the rapid spread of ZIKV.To evaluate the ocular findings in infants with microcephaly associated with presumed intrauterine ZIKV infection in Salvador, Bahia, Brazil.Case series at a tertiary hospital. Twenty-nine infants with microcephaly (defined by a cephalic circumference of ≤32 cm) with a presumed diagnosis of congenital ZIKV were recruited through an active search and referrals from other hospitals and health unities. The study was conducted between December 1 and December 21, 2015.All infants and mothers underwent systemic and ophthalmic examinations from December 1 through December 21, 2015, in the Roberto Santos General Hospital, Salvador, Brazil. Anterior segment and retinal, choroidal, and optic nerve abnormalities were documented using a wide-field digital imaging system. The differential diagnosis included toxoplasmosis, rubella, cytomegalovirus, herpes simplex virus, syphilis, and human immunodeficiency virus, which were ruled out through serologic and clinical examinations.Ocular abnormalities associated with ZIKV.Twenty-three of 29 mothers (79.3%) reported suspected ZIKV infection signs and symptoms during pregnancy, 18 in the first trimester, 4 in the second trimester, and 1 in the third trimester. Of the 29 infants (58 eyes) examined (18 [62.1%] female), ocular abnormalities were present in 17 eyes (29.3%) of 10 children (34.5%). Bilateral findings were found in 7 of 10 patients presenting with ocular lesions, the most common of which were focal pigment mottling of the retina and chorioretinal atrophy in 11 of the 17 eyes with abnormalities (64.7%), followed by optic nerve abnormalities in 8 eyes (47.1%), bilateral iris coloboma in 1 patient (2 eyes [11.8%]), and lens subluxation in 1 eye (5.9%).Congenital infection due to presumed ZIKV exposure is associated with vision-threatening findings, which include bilateral macular and perimacular lesions as well as optic nerve abnormalities in most cases.

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Association of past dengue fever epidemics with the risk of Zika microcephaly at the population level in Brazil.

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Association of past dengue fever epidemics with the risk of Zika microcephaly at the population level in Brazil.

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