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Population of the temperate mosquito, Culex pipiens, decreases in response to habitat climatological changes in future.

ABSTRACT: Predictions of the temporal distribution of vector mosquitoes are an important issue for human health because the response of mosquito populations to climate change could have implications for the risk of vector-borne diseases. To elucidate the effects of climate change on mosquito populations inhabiting temperate regions, we developed a Physiology-based Climate-driven Mosquito Population model for temperate regions. For accurately reproducing the temporal patterns observed in mosquito populations, the key factors were identified by implementing the combinations of factors into the model. We focused on three factors: the effect of diapause, the positive effect of rainfall on larval carrying capacity, and the negative effect of rainfall as the washout mortality on aquatic stages. For each model, parameters were calibrated using weekly observation data of a Culex pipiens adult population collected in Tokyo, Japan. Based on its likelihood value, the model incorporating diapause, constant carrying capacity, and washout mortality was the best to replicate the observed data. By using the selected model and applying global climate model data, our results indicated that the mosquito population would decrease and adults' active season would be shortened under future climate conditions. We found that incorporating the washout effect in the model settings or not caused a difference in the temporal patterns in the projected mosquito populations. This suggested that water resources in mosquito habitats in temperate regions should be considered for predicting the risk of vector-borne diseases in such regions.

SUBMITTER: Watanabe K

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7007082 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Nowadays a number of endemic mosquito species are known to possess vector abilities for various diseases, as e.g. the sibling species Culex pipiens and Culex torrentium. Due to their morphological similarity, ecology, distribution and vector abilities, knowledge about these species' population structure is essential. Culicidae from 25 different sampling sites were collected from March till October 2012. All analyses were performed with aligned cox1 sequences with a total length of 658 bp. Population structure as well as distribution patterns of both species were analysed using molecular methods and different statistical tests like distance based redundancy analysis (dbDRA), analysis of molecular variances (AMOVA) or McDonald & Kreitman test and Tajima's D. Within both species, we could show a genetic variability among the cox1 fragment. The construction of haplotype networks revealed one dominating haplotype for Cx. pipiens, widely distributed within Germany and a more homogeneous pattern for Cx. torrentium. The low genetic differences within Cx. pipiens could be a result of an infection with Wolbachia which can induce a sweep through populations by passively taking the also maternally inherited mtDNA through the population, thereby reducing the mitochondrial diversity as an outcome of reproductive incompatibility. Pairwise population genetic differentiation (FST) ranged significantly from moderate to very great between populations of Cx. pipiens and Cx. torrentium. Analyses of molecular variances revealed for both species that the main genetic variability exists within the populations (Cx. pipiens [88.38%]; Cx. torrentium [66.54%]). Based on a distance based redundancy analysis geographical origin explained a small but significant part of the species' genetic variation. Overall, the results confirm that Cx. pipiens and Cx. torrentium underlie different factors regarding their mitochondrial differentiation, which could be a result of endosymbiosis, dispersal between nearly located populations or human introduction.

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Population of the temperate mosquito, Culex pipiens, decreases in response to habitat climatological changes in future.

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