Dataset Information

The Influence of Interannual Climate Variability on Regional Violent Crime Rates in the United States.

ABSTRACT: While the impact of climate on regional geopolitical stability and large-scale conflict has garnered increased visibility in recent years, the effects of climate variability on interpersonal violent crime have received only limited scientific attention. Though earlier studies have established a modest correlation between temperature and violent crime, the underlying seasonality in both variables was often not controlled for and spatial heterogeneity of the statistical relationships has largely been overlooked. Here a method of spatial aggregation is applied to the United States, enabling a systematic investigation into the observed relationships between large-scale climate variability and regionally aggregated crime rates. This novel approach allows for differentiation between the effects of two previously proposed mechanisms linking climate and violent crime, the Routine Activities Theory and Temperature-Aggression Hypothesis. Results indicate large and statistically significant positive correlations between the interannual variability of wintertime air temperature and both violent and property crime rates, with negligible correlations emerging from summertime data. Results strongly support the Routine Activities Theory linking climate and violent crime, with climate variability explaining well over a third of the variance of wintertime violent crime in several broad regions of the United States. Finally, results motivate the development of observationally constrained empirical models and their potential application to seasonal and potentially longer-term forecasts.

SUBMITTER: Harp RD

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7007136 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The Influence of Interannual Climate Variability on Regional Violent Crime Rates in the United States.

Harp Ryan D RD Karnauskas Kristopher B KB

GeoHealth 20181121 11

While the impact of climate on regional geopolitical stability and large-scale conflict has garnered increased visibility in recent years, the effects of climate variability on interpersonal violent crime have received only limited scientific attention. Though earlier studies have established a modest correlation between temperature and violent crime, the underlying seasonality in both variables was often not controlled for and spatial heterogeneity of the statistical relationships has largely b ...[more]

PMID: 32159007

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Project description:BackgroundThis study examines the impact of climate, socio-economic and demographic factors on the incidence of dengue in regions of the United States and Mexico. We select factors shown to predict dengue at a local level and test whether the association can be generalized to the regional or state level. In addition, we assess how different indicators perform compared to per capita gross domestic product (GDP), an indicator that is commonly used to predict the future distribution of dengue.MethodsA unique spatial-temporal dataset was created by collating information from a variety of data sources to perform empirical analyses at the regional level. Relevant regions for the analysis were selected based on their receptivity and vulnerability to dengue. A conceptual framework was elaborated to guide variable selection. The relationship between the incidence of dengue and the climate, socio-economic and demographic factors was modelled via a Generalized Additive Model (GAM), which also accounted for the spatial and temporal auto-correlation.ResultsThe socio-economic indicator (representing household income, education of the labour force, life expectancy at birth, and housing overcrowding), as well as more extensive access to broadband are associated with a drop in the incidence of dengue; by contrast, population growth and inter-regional migration are associated with higher incidence, after taking climate into account. An ageing population is also a predictor of higher incidence, but the relationship is concave and flattens at high rates. The rate of active physicians is associated with higher incidence, most likely because of more accurate reporting. If focusing on Mexico only, results remain broadly similar, however, workforce education was a better predictor of a drop in the incidence of dengue than household income.ConclusionsTwo lessons can be drawn from this study: first, while higher GDP is generally associated with a drop in the incidence of dengue, a more granular analysis reveals that the crucial factors are a rise in education (with fewer jobs in the primary sector) and better access to information or technological infrastructure. Secondly, factors that were shown to have an impact of dengue at the local level are also good predictors at the regional level. These indices may help us better understand factors responsible for the global distribution of dengue and also, given a warming climate, may help us to better predict vulnerable populations on a larger scale.

Project description:Background and objectivesRegional variability in subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) care is reported in physician surveys. We aimed to describe variability in SAH care using patient-level data and identify factors impacting hospital outcomes and regional variability in outcomes.MethodsA retrospective multi-center cross-sectional cohort study of consecutive non-traumatic SAH patients in the Vizient Clinical Data Base, between January 1st, 2009 and December 30th, 2018 was performed. Participating hospitals were divided into US regions: Northeast, Midwest, South, West. Regional demographics, co-morbidities, severity-of-illness, complications, interventions and discharge outcomes were compared. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify factors independently associated with primary outcomes: hospital mortality and poor discharge outcome. Poor discharge outcome was defined by the Nationwide Inpatient Sample-SAH Outcome Measure, an externally-validated outcome measure combining death, discharge disposition, tracheostomy and/or gastrostomy. Regional variability in the associations between care and outcomes were assessed by introducing an interaction term for US region into the models.ResultsOf 109,034 patients included, 24.3% were from Northeast, 24.9% Midwest, 34.9% South, 15.9% West. Mean (SD) age was 58.6 (15.6) years and 64,245 (58.9%) were female. In-hospital mortality occurred in 21,991 (20.2%) and 44,159 (40.5%) had poor discharge outcome. There was significant variability in severity-of-illness, co-morbidities, complications and interventions across US regions. Notable findings were higher prevalence of surgical clipping (18.8 vs. 11.6%), delayed cerebral ischemia (4.3 vs. 3.1%), seizures (16.5 vs. 14.8%), infections (18 vs. 14.7%), length of stay (mean [SD] days; 15.7 [19.2] vs. 14.1 [16.7]) and health-care direct costs (mean [SD] USD; 80,379 [98,999]. vs. 58,264 [74,430]) in the West when compared to other regions (all p < 0.0001). Variability in care was also associated with modest variability in hospital mortality and discharge outcome. Aneurysm repair, nimodipine use, later admission-year, endovascular rescue therapies reduced the odds for poor outcome. Age, severity-of-illness, co-morbidities, hospital complications, and vasopressor use increased those odds (c-statistic; mortality: 0.77; discharge outcome: 0.81). Regional interaction effect was significant for admission severity-of-illness, aneurysm-repair and nimodipine-use.DiscussionMultiple hospital-care factors impact SAH outcomes and significant variability in hospital-care and modest variability in discharge-outcomes exists across the US. Variability in SAH-severity, nimodipine-use and aneurysm-repair may drive variability in outcomes.

Dataset Information

The Influence of Interannual Climate Variability on Regional Violent Crime Rates in the United States.

Publications

The Influence of Interannual Climate Variability on Regional Violent Crime Rates in the United States.

Similar Datasets

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