Dataset Information

Risk assessment of African swine fever in the south-eastern countries of Europe.

ABSTRACT: The European Commission requested EFSA to estimate the risk of spread of African swine fever (ASF) and to identify potential risk factors (indicators) for the spread of ASF, given introduction in the south-eastern countries of Europe (region of concern, ROC), namely Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Greece, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia and Slovenia. Three EU Member States (MS) - Croatia, Greece and Slovenia - were included in the ROC due to their geographical location and ASF-free status. Based on collected information on potential risk factors (indicators) for each country and the relevant EU regulations in force, the estimated probability of spread of ASF within the ROC within one year after introduction into the ROC was assessed to be very high (from 66% to 100%). This estimate was determined after considering the high number of indicators present in most of the countries in the ROC and the known effect that these indicators can have on ASF spread, especially those related to the structure of the domestic pig sector, the presence of wild boar and social factors. The presence of indicators varies between countries in the ROC. Each country is at risk of ASF spread following introduction; however, some countries may have a higher probability of ASF spread following introduction. In addition, the probability of ASF spread from the ROC to EU MSs outside the ROC within one year after introduction of ASF in the ROC was estimated to be very low to low (from 0% to 15%). This estimate was based on the comparison of the indicators present in the ROC and the already affected countries in south-eastern Europe, such as Bulgaria and Romania, where there was no evidence of ASF spread to other EU MS within one year.

SUBMITTER: EFSA Panel on Animal Health and Welfare (AHAW)

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7008867 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Risk assessment of African swine fever in the south-eastern countries of Europe.

Nielsen Søren Saxmose SS Alvarez Julio J Bicout Dominique D Calistri Paolo P Depner Klaus K Drewe Julian Ashley JA Garin-Bastuji Bruno B Gonzales Rojas Jose Luis JL Michel Virginie V Miranda Miguel Angel MA Roberts Helen H Sihvonen Liisa L Spoolder Hans H Ståhl Karl K Viltrop Arvo A Winckler Christoph C Boklund Anette A Bøtner Anette A Gonzales Rojas Jose Luis JL More Simon J SJ Thulke Hans-Hermann HH Antoniou Sotiria-Eleni SE Cortinas Abrahantes José J Dhollander Sofie S Gogin Andrey A Papanikolaou Alexandra A Gonzalez Villeta Laura C LC Gortázar Schmidt Christian C

EFSA journal. European Food Safety Authority 20191105 11

The European Commission requested EFSA to estimate the risk of spread of African swine fever (ASF) and to identify potential risk factors (indicators) for the spread of ASF, given introduction in the south-eastern countries of Europe (region of concern, ROC), namely Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Greece, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia and Slovenia. Three EU Member States (MS) - Croatia, Greece and Slovenia - were included in the ROC due to their geographical location and ...[more]

PMID: 32626162

Similar Datasets

Project description:African swine fever (ASF) is a contagious viral disease that causes high mortality, approaching 100%, in domestic pigs and wild boars. The disease has neither a cure nor a vaccine, and it is caused by an ASF virus (ASFV), the only member of the family Asfarviridae, genus Asfivirus, and the only known DNA arbovirus. Twenty-four genotypes of ASFV have been described to date, and all of them have been described in Africa. ASF is endemic in Burundi, and several outbreaks have been reported in the country; the disease continues to economically impact on small-scale farmers. This study aimed at genetic characterization of ASFV that caused an ASF outbreak in the Rutana region, Burundi, in the year 2018. Tissue samples from domestic pigs that died as a result of a severe hemorrhagic disease were collected in order to confirm the disease using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and to conduct partial genome sequencing. Nucleotide sequences were obtained for the B646L (p72) gene, the intergenic fragment between the I73R and I329L genes, and the central variable region (CVR) of the B602L gene. Phylogenetic analysis of the Burundian 2018 ASFV grouped the virus within B646L (p72) genotype X and clustered together with those reported during the 1984 and 1990 outbreaks in Burundi with high nucleotide identity to some ASFV strains previously reported in neighboring East African countries, indicating a regional distribution of this ASFV genotype. Analysis of the intergenic fragment between I73R and I329L genes showed that the Burundian 2018 ASFV described in this study lacked a 32-base pair (bp) fragment present in the reference genotype X strain, Kenya 1950. In addition, the strain described in this study had the signature AAABNAABA at the CVR (B602L) gene and showed 100% amino acid sequence identity to viruses responsible for recent ASF outbreaks in the region. The virus described in this study showed high genetic similarities with ASFV strains previously described in domestic pigs, wild suids, and soft ticks in East African countries, indicating a possible common wild source and continuous circulation in domestic pigs in the region.

Project description:A semi-quantitative risk assessment was developed to classify pig farms in terms of the probability of introduction of African swine fever virus (ASFV). Following on-farm data collection via a specific checklist, we applied a modified failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) to calculate the risk priority codes (RPC's), indicating increasing risk levels ranging from 1 to 5. The importance of biosecurity measures was attributed by experts. To consider geographic risk factors, we classified pig farms based on local density of farmed pigs, and on the estimated wild boar population density. The combination of RPC's with geographical risk factors resulted into a final ranking of pig farms in terms of the risk of ASFV introduction. Furthermore, the estimation of frequency and levels of non-compliance with biosecurity measures was used to identify weak points in risk prevention at farm level. The outcome of the risk assessment was affected by choices in assigning non-compliance scores and importance to specific components of biosecurity. The method was applied in 60 commercial farms in major pig production areas in Italy. Furthermore, we applied a reduced version of our checklist in 12 non-commercial/small commercial (≤20 pigs) farms in the northern Apennines. In commercial farms, highest RPC's were obtained for biosecurity measures associated with personnel practices and farm buildings/planimetry. Intervention should be addressed to training of personnel on biosecurity and ASF, to avoid contacts with other pig herds, and to improve practices in the entrance into the farm. Sharing trucks with other farms, and loading/unloading of pigs were other weak points. Fencing was classified as insufficient in 70% of the commercial farms. Among these farms, breeding units were characterised by the lowest risk of ASFV introduction (although differences among median ranks were not statistically significant: P-value = 0.07; Kruskal-Wallis test), and increasing herd size was not significantly correlated with a higher risk (Kendall's τ = -0.13; P-value = 0.14). Density of farmed pig was greatest in the main pig production area in northern Italy. Conversely, exposure to wild boars was greatest for non-commercial/small commercial farms on the Apennines, which were also characterised by non-compliance with critical biosecurity measures.

Dataset Information

Risk assessment of African swine fever in the south-eastern countries of Europe.

Publications

Risk assessment of African swine fever in the south-eastern countries of Europe.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets