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Pathogen-Specific Impacts of the 2011-2012 La Nina-Associated Floods on Enteric Infections in the MAL-ED Peru Cohort: A Comparative Interrupted Time Series Analysis.

ABSTRACT: Extreme floods pose multiple direct and indirect health risks. These risks include contamination of water, food, and the environment, often causing outbreaks of diarrheal disease. Evidence regarding the effects of flooding on individual diarrhea-causing pathogens is limited, but is urgently needed in order to plan and implement interventions and prioritize resources before climate-related disasters strike. This study applied a causal inference approach to data from a multisite study that deployed broadly inclusive diagnostics for numerous high-burden common enteropathogens. Relative risks (RRs) of infection with each pathogen during a flooding disaster that occurred at one of the sites-Loreto, Peru-were calculated from generalized linear models using a comparative interrupted time series framework with the other sites as a comparison group and adjusting for background seasonality. During the early period of the flood, increased risk of heat-stable enterotoxigenic E. coli (ST-ETEC) was identified (RR = 1.73 [1.10, 2.71]) along with a decreased risk of enteric adenovirus (RR = 0.36 [0.23, 0.58]). During the later period of the flood, sharp increases in the risk of rotavirus (RR = 5.30 [2.70, 10.40]) and sapovirus (RR = 2.47 [1.79, 3.41]) were observed, in addition to increases in transmission of Shigella spp. (RR = 2.86 [1.81, 4.52]) and Campylobacter spp. (RR = 1.41 (1.01, 1.07). Genotype-specific exploratory analysis reveals that the rise in rotavirus transmission during the flood was likely due to the introduction of a locally atypical, non-vaccine (G2P[4]) strain of the virus. Policy-makers should target interventions towards these pathogens-including vaccines as they become available-in settings where vulnerability to flooding is high as part of disaster preparedness strategies, while investments in radical, transformative, community-wide, and locally-tailored water and sanitation interventions are also needed.

SUBMITTER: Colston J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7013961 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundOpen drains are common methods of transporting solid waste and excreta in low-income urban neighborhoods. Open drains can overflow due to blockages with solid waste and during rainfall, posing exposure risks. The goal of this study was to evaluate whether pediatric enteric infection was associated with open drains and flooding in a dense, low-income, urban neighborhood.MethodsAs part of the MAL-ED study in Vellore, India, a cohort of 230 children provided stool specimens at 14-17 scheduled home visits and during diarrheal episodes in the first two years of life. All specimens were analyzed for enteric pathogens. Caregivers in 100 households reported on flooding of drains and households and monthly frequency of contact with open drains and flood water. Household GPS points were collected. Monthly rainfall totals for the Vellore district were collected from the Indian Meteorological Department. Clustering of reported drain and house flooding were identified by Kulldorff's Bernoulli Spatial Scan. Differences in enteric infection were assessed for household responses and spatial clusters, with interactions between reported flooding and rainfall to approximate monthly drain flooding retrospectively, using multivariable, mixed-effects logistic regression models.ResultsCoverage of household toilets was low (33%), and most toilets (82%) discharged directly into open drains, suggesting poor neighborhood fecal sludge management. Odds of enteric infection increased significantly with total monthly rainfall for children who lived in households that reported that the nearby drain flooded (4% increase per cm of rain: OR: 1.04, 95% CI: 1.00-1.08) and for children in households in a downstream spatial cluster of reported drain flooding (5% increase per cm of rain: OR: 1.05, 95% CI: 1.01-1.09). There was no association between odds of enteric infection and frequency of reported contact with drain or floodwater.ConclusionsChildren in areas susceptible to open drain flooding had increased odds of enteric infection as rainfall increased. Results suggested that infection increased with rainfall due to neighborhood infrastructure (including poor fecal sludge management) and not frequency of contact. Thus, these exposures may not be mitigated by changes in personal behaviors alone. These results underscore the importance of improving the neighborhood environment to improve children's health in low-income, urban settings.

Dataset Information

Pathogen-Specific Impacts of the 2011-2012 La Nina-Associated Floods on Enteric Infections in the MAL-ED Peru Cohort: A Comparative Interrupted Time Series Analysis.

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