Dataset Information

Accuracy of algorithms to predict injury severity in older adults for trauma triage.

ABSTRACT: Objective: Older adults make up a rapidly increasing proportion of motor vehicle occupants and previous studies have demonstrated that this population is more susceptible to traumatic injuries. The CDC recommends that patients anticipated to have severe injuries (Injury Severity Score [ISS]???16) be transported to a trauma center. The recommended target rate for undertriage is ? 5% and for overtriage is ? 50%. Several regression-based algorithms for injury prediction have been developed in order to predict severe injury in occupants involved in a motor vehicle collision (MVC). The objective of this study to was to determine if the accuracy of regression-based injury severity prediction algorithms decreases for older adults.Methods: Data were obtained from the National Automotive Sampling System - Crashworthiness Data System (NASS-CDS) from the years 2000-2015. Adult occupants involved in non-rollover MVCs were included. Regression-based injury risk models to predict severe injury (ISS ? 16) were developed using random split-samples with the following variables: age, delta-V, direction of impact, belt status, and number of impacts. Separate models were trained using data from the following age groups: (1) all adults, (2) 15-54?years, (3) ?45?years, (4) ?55?years, and (5) ?65?years. The models were compared using the mean receiver operating characteristic area under curve (ROC-AUC) after 1,000 iterations of training and testing. The predicted rates of overtriage were then determined for each group in order to achieve an undertriage rate of 5%.Results: There were 24,577 occupants (6,863,306 weighted) included in this analysis. The injury prediction model trained using data from all adults did not perform as well when tested on older adults (ROC-AUC: 15-54?years: 0.874 [95% CI: [0.851-0.895]; 45+ years: 0.837 [95% CI: 0.802-869]; 55+ years: 0.821 [95% CI: 0.775-0.864]; and 65+ years: 0.813 [95% CI: 0.754-0.866]). The accuracy of this model decreased in each decade of life. The performance did not change significantly when age-specific data were used to train the prediction models (ROC-AUC: 18-54?years: 0.874 [95% CI: 0.851-0.896]; 45+ years: 0.836 [95% CI: 0.798-0.871]; 55+ years: 0.822 [95% CI: 0.779-0.864]; and 65+ years: 0.808 [95% CI: 0.748-0.868]). In order to achieve an undertriage rate of 5%, the predicted overtriage rate by these models were 50% for occupants 15-54?years, 61% for occupants ? 55?years, 70% for occupants ? 55?years, and 71% for occupants ? 65?years.Conclusion: The results of this study indicate that it is more difficult to accurately predict severe injury in older adults involved in MVCs, which has the potential to result in significant overtriage. This decreased accuracy is likely due to variations in fragility in older adults. These findings indicate that special care should be taken when using regression-based prediction models to determine the appropriate hospital destination for older occupants.

SUBMITTER: Hartka T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7035169 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Accuracy of algorithms to predict injury severity in older adults for trauma triage.

Hartka Thomas T Gancayco Christina C McMurry Timothy T Robson Marina M Weaver Ashley A

Traffic injury prevention 20191127 sup2

<b>Objective</b>: Older adults make up a rapidly increasing proportion of motor vehicle occupants and previous studies have demonstrated that this population is more susceptible to traumatic injuries. The CDC recommends that patients anticipated to have severe injuries (Injury Severity Score [ISS] ≥ 16) be transported to a trauma center. The recommended target rate for undertriage is ≤ 5% and for overtriage is ≤ 50%. Several regression-based algorithms for injury prediction have been developed i ...[more]

PMID: 31774698

Similar Datasets

Project description:BACKGROUND:Children suffering nonaccidental trauma (NAT) are at high risk of death. It is unclear whether markers of injury severity for trauma center/system benchmarking such as Injury Severity Score (ISS) adequately characterize this. Our objective was to evaluate mortality prediction of ISS in children with NAT compared with accidental trauma (AT). METHODS:Pediatric patients younger than 16 years from the Pennsylvania state trauma registry 2000 to 2013 were included. Logistic regression predicted mortality from ISS for NAT and AT patients. Multilevel logistic regression determined the association between mortality and ISS while adjusting for age, vital signs, and injury pattern in NAT and AT patients. Similar models were performed for head Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS). Sensitivity analysis examined impaired functional independence at discharge as an alternate outcome. RESULTS:Fifty thousand five hundred seventy-nine patients were included with 1,866 (3.7%) NAT patients. Nonaccidental trauma patients had a similar rate of mortality at an ISS of 13 as an ISS of 25 for AT patients. Nonaccidental trauma patients also have higher mortality for a given head AIS level (range, 1.2-fold to 5.9-fold higher). Injury Severity Score was a significantly greater predictor of mortality in AT patients (adjusted odds rations [AOR], 1.14; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.13-1.15; p < 0.01) than NAT patients (AOR, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.07-1.12; p < 0.01) per 1-point ISS increase, while head injury was a significantly greater predictor of mortality in NAT patients (AOR, 3.48; 95% CI, 1.54-8.32; p < 0.01) than AT patients (AOR, 1.21; 95% CI, 0.95-1.45; p = 0.12). Nonaccidental trauma patients had a higher rate of impaired functional independence at any given ISS or head AIS level than AT patients. CONCLUSION:Nonaccidental trauma patients have higher mortality and impaired function at a given ISS/head AIS than AT patients. Conventional ISS thresholds may underestimate risk and head injury is a more important predictor of mortality in the NAT population. These findings should be considered in system performance improvement and benchmarking efforts that rely on ISS for injury characterization. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE:Epidemiologic study, level III.

Project description:ObjectiveTo investigate the association between higher injury severity and increased informal caregiving received by injured older adults.Summary of background dataInjured older adults experience high rates of functional decline and disability after hospitalization. Little is known about the scope of caregiving received post-discharge, particularly from informal caregivers such as family.MethodsWe used the National Health and Aging Trends Study 2011 to 2018 linked to Medicare claims to identify adults ≥65 with hospital admission for traumatic injury and a National Health and Aging Trends Study interview within 12 months pre- and post-trauma. Injury severity was assessed using the injury severity score (ISS, low 0-9; moderate 10-15; severe 16-75). Patients reported the types and hours of formal and informal help received and any unmet care needs. Multi variable logistic regression models examined the association between ISS and increase in informal caregiving hours after discharge.ResultsWe identified 430 trauma patients. Most were female (67.7%), non-Hispanic White (83.4%) and half were frail. The most common mechanism of injury was fall (80.8%) and median injury severity was low (ISS = 9). Those reporting receiving help with any activity increased post-trauma (49.0% to 72.4%, P < 0.01), and unmet needs nearly doubled (22.8% to 43.0%, P < 0.01). Patients had a median of 2 caregivers and most (75.6%) were informal, often family members. Median weekly hours of care received pre- versus post-injury increased from 8 to 14 (P < 0.01). ISS did not independently predict increase in caregiving hours; pre-trauma frailty predicted an increase in hours ≥8 per week.ConclusionsInjured older adults reported high baseline care needs which increased significantly after hospital discharge and were mostly met by informal caregivers. Injury was associated with increased need for assistance and unmet needs regardless of injury severity. These results can help set expectations for caregivers and facilitate post-acute care transitions.

Project description:National benchmarks for trauma triage sensitivity (?95%) and specificity (?50%) have not been rigorously evaluated across broad populations of injured patients. We evaluated the impact of different field triage schemes for identifying seriously injured patients across a range of sensitivity values. Impact metrics included specificity and number of undertriaged and overtriaged patients compared with current triage practices.This was a retrospective cohort study of injured children and adults transported by 48 emergency medical service (EMS) agencies to 105 hospitals in 6 regions of the Western United States from 2006 through 2008. Hospital outcomes were probabilistically linked to EMS records through trauma registries, state discharge databases, and state emergency department databases. The primary outcome was an Injury Severity Score (ISS) of 16 or greater. We evaluated 40 field predictor variables, including 31 current field triage criteria, using classification and regression tree analysis and cross-validation to generate estimates for sensitivity and specificity.A total of 89,261 injured patients were evaluated and transported by EMS providers during the 3-year period, of whom 5,711 (6.4%) had ISS of 16 or greater. As the 95% sensitivity target for triage was approached (from the current value of 87.5%), decision tree complexity increased, specificity decreased (from 62.8% to 18.7%), and the number of triage-positive patients without serious injury doubled (67,927 vs. 31,104). Analyses restricted to children and older adults were similar. The most consistent modification to the current triage algorithm to increase sensitivity without a major decrease in specificity was altering the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score cutoff point from 13 or less to 14 or less (sensitivity increase to 90.4%).Reaching the field triage sensitivity benchmark of 95% would require a large decrease in specificity (increase in overtriage). A 90% sensitivity target seems more realistic and may be obtainable by modest changes to the current triage algorithm.

Project description:ImportanceAs the US population ages, public health agencies have released guidelines encouraging aerobic activity and muscle-strengthening exercises among older individuals. Facial trauma from such activities among elderly individuals has long been underappreciated.ObjectivesTo evaluate the incidence of recreational activity-associated facial fractures among older adults and to further delineate injury characteristics including demographics, fracture location, and specific activities.Design, setting, and participantsThe National Electronic Injury Surveillance System was used to collect data on emergency department visits from January 1, 2011, to December 31, 2015, for individuals 55 years of age or older who sustained facial fractures from recreational activities. Individual entries were evaluated for activity code, fracture site, and demographics. Weighting data were used to extrapolate national incidence.Main outcomes and measuresIncidence and location of facial fractures and associated recreational activity.ResultsDuring the study period, there were 20?519 emergency department visits for recreational activity-associated facial fractures among adults 55 years of age or older (8107 women and 12?412 men; mean [SD] age, 66.5 [9.1] years). The annual incidence of facial fractures increased by 45.3% from 2011 (n?=?3174) through 2015 (n?=?4612). Bicycling (26.6%), team sports (15.4%), outdoor activities (10.1%), and gardening (9.5%) were the most common causes of facial fractures. Walking and jogging caused 5.5% of fractures. In cases specifying site of fracture, nasal (65.4%) and orbital (14.1%) fractures were the most common. A greater proportion of men than women sustained bicycle-associated fractures (35.7% vs 14.9%; P?=?3.1056?×?10-170), while more women than men sustained fractures associated with gardening (15.5% vs 6.1%; P?=?2.1029?×?10-97), outdoor activities (14.6% vs 7.7%; P?=?4.3156?×?10-50), and gym exercise (7.7% vs 1.3%; P?=?3.0281?×?10-114). Men harbored a greater likelihood than women of orbital (14.9% vs 12.8%; P?=?6.1468?×?10-5) and mandible fractures (9.3% vs 2.0%; P?=?9.3760?×?10-64). Walking and jogging and gardening comprised a greater proportion of injuries in older cohorts.Conclusions and relevanceFacial fractures sustained from recreational activity increased by 45.3% during a 5-year period among older adults. Although bicycling was the most common activity facilitating these injuries, many other pursuits represent areas of concern. Nasal fractures predominated, although orbital fractures increased with age. These findings offer areas for targeted prevention and provide valuable information for patient counseling. Furthermore, initiatives encouraging greater activity among this population may need to be accompanied by guidelines for injury prevention.Level of evidenceNA.

Project description:BackgroundThe American College of Surgeons Committee on Trauma sets national targets for the accuracy of field trauma triage at ≥95% sensitivity and ≥65% specificity, yet the cost-effectiveness of realizing these goals is unknown. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of current field trauma triage practices compared with triage strategies consistent with the national targets.Study designThis was a cost-effectiveness analysis using data from 79,937 injured adults transported by 48 emergency medical services agencies to 105 trauma and nontrauma hospitals in 6 regions of the western United States from 2006 through 2008. Incremental differences in survival, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), costs, and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (costs per QALY gained) were estimated for each triage strategy during a 1-year and lifetime horizon using a decision analytic Markov model. We considered an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio threshold of <$100,000 to be cost-effective.ResultsFor these 6 regions, a high-sensitivity triage strategy consistent with national trauma policy (sensitivity 98.6%, specificity 17.1%) would cost $1,317,333 per QALY gained, and current triage practices (sensitivity 87.2%, specificity 64.0%) cost $88,000 per QALY gained, compared with a moderate sensitivity strategy (sensitivity 71.2%, specificity 66.5%). Refining emergency medical services transport patterns by triage status improved cost-effectiveness. At the trauma-system level, a high-sensitivity triage strategy would save 3.7 additional lives per year at a 1-year cost of $8.78 million, and a moderate sensitivity approach would cost 5.2 additional lives and save $781,616 each year.ConclusionsA high-sensitivity approach to field triage consistent with national trauma policy is not cost-effective. The most cost-effective approach to field triage appears closely tied to triage specificity and adherence to triage-based emergency medical services transport practices.

Dataset Information

Accuracy of algorithms to predict injury severity in older adults for trauma triage.

Publications

Accuracy of algorithms to predict injury severity in older adults for trauma triage.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets