Dataset Information

Assessing and mapping multi-hazard risk susceptibility using a machine learning technique.

ABSTRACT: The aim of the current study was to suggest a multi-hazard probability assessment in Fars Province, Shiraz City, and its four strategic watersheds. At first, we construct maps depicting the most effective factors on floods (12 factors), forest fires (10 factors), and landslides (10 factors), and used the Boruta algorithm to prioritize the impact of each respective factor on the occurrence of each hazard. Subsequently, flood, landslides, and forest fire susceptibility maps prepared using a Random Forest (RF) model in the R statistical software. Results indicate that 42.83% of the study area are not susceptible to any hazards, while 2.67% of the area is at risk of all three hazards. The results of the multi-hazard map in Shiraz City indicate that 25% of Shiraz city is very susceptible to flooding, while 16% is very susceptible to landslide occurrences. For four strategic watersheds, it is notable that in the Dorodzan Watershed, landslides and floods are the most important hazards; whereas, flood occurrences cover the largest area of the Maharlou Watershed. In contrast, the Tashk-Bakhtegan Watershed is so sensible to floods and landslides, respectively. Finally, in the Ghareaghaj Watershed, forest fire ranks as the strongest hazard, followed by floods. The validation results indicate an AUC of 0.834, 0.939, and 0.943 for the flood, landslide, and forest fire susceptibility maps, respectively. Also, other accuracy measures including, specificity, sensitivity, TSS, CCI, and Gini coefficient confirmed results of the AUC values. These results allow us to forecast the spatial behavior of such multi-hazard events, and researchers and stakeholders alike can apply them to evaluate hazards under various mitigation scenarios.

SUBMITTER: Pourghasemi HR

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7035287 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Assessing and mapping multi-hazard risk susceptibility using a machine learning technique.

Pourghasemi Hamid Reza HR Kariminejad Narges N Amiri Mahdis M Edalat Mohsen M Zarafshar Mehrdad M Blaschke Thomas T Cerda Artemio A

Scientific reports 20200221 1

The aim of the current study was to suggest a multi-hazard probability assessment in Fars Province, Shiraz City, and its four strategic watersheds. At first, we construct maps depicting the most effective factors on floods (12 factors), forest fires (10 factors), and landslides (10 factors), and used the Boruta algorithm to prioritize the impact of each respective factor on the occurrence of each hazard. Subsequently, flood, landslides, and forest fire susceptibility maps prepared using a Random ...[more]

PMID: 32081935

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Project description:Natural hazards are diverse and uneven in time and space, therefore, understanding its complexity is key to save human lives and conserve natural ecosystems. Reducing the outputs obtained after each modelling analysis is key to present the results for stakeholders, land managers and policymakers. So, the main goal of this survey was to present a method to synthesize three natural hazards in one multi-hazard map and its evaluation for hazard management and land use planning. To test this methodology, we took as study area the Gorganrood Watershed, located in the Golestan Province (Iran). First, an inventory map of three different types of hazards including flood, landslides, and gullies was prepared using field surveys and different official reports. To generate the susceptibility maps, a total of 17 geo-environmental factors were selected as predictors using the MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy) machine learning technique. The accuracy of the predictive models was evaluated by drawing receiver operating characteristic-ROC curves and calculating the area under the ROC curve-AUCROC. The MaxEnt model not only implemented superbly in the degree of fitting, but also obtained significant results in predictive performance. Variables importance of the three studied types of hazards showed that river density, distance from streams, and elevation were the most important factors for flood, respectively. Lithological units, elevation, and annual mean rainfall were relevant for detecting landslides. On the other hand, annual mean rainfall, elevation, and lithological units were used for gully erosion mapping in this study area. Finally, by combining the flood, landslides, and gully erosion susceptibility maps, an integrated multi-hazard map was created. The results demonstrated that 60% of the area is subjected to hazards, reaching a proportion of landslides up to 21.2% in the whole territory. We conclude that using this type of multi-hazard map may be a useful tool for local administrators to identify areas susceptible to hazards at large scales as we demonstrated in this research.

Project description:Our aim is to predict possible gross total and subtotal resections of skull meningiomas from pre-treatment T1 post contrast MR-images using radiomics and machine learning in a representative patient cohort. We analyse the accuracy of our model predictions depending on the tumor location within the skull and the postoperative tumor volume. In this retrospective, IRB-approved study, image segmentation of the contrast enhancing parts of the tumor was semi-automatically performed using the 3D Slicer open-source software platform. Imaging data were split into training data and independent test data at random. We extracted a total of 107 radiomic features by hand-delineated regions of interest on T1 post contrast MR images. Feature preselection and model construction were performed with eight different machine learning algorithms. Each model was estimated 100 times on new training data and then tested on a previously unknown, independent test data set to avoid possible overfitting. Our cohort included 138 patients. A gross total resection of the meningioma was performed in 107 cases and a subtotal resection in the remaining 31 cases. Using the training data, the mean area under the curve (AUC), mean accuracy, mean kappa, mean sensitivity and mean specificity were 0.901, 0.875, 0.629, 0.675 and 0.933 respectively. We obtained very similar results with the independent test data: mean AUC = 0.900, mean accuracy = 0.881, mean kappa = 0.644, mean sensitivity = 0.692 and mean specificity = 0.936. Thus, our model exposes good and stable predictive performance with both training and test data. Our radiomics approach shows that with machine learning algorithms and comparatively few explanatory factors such as the location of the tumor within the skull as well as its shape, it is possible to make accurate predictions about whether a meningioma can be completely resected by surgery. Complete resections and resections with larger postoperative tumor volumes can be predicted with very high accuracy. However, cases with very small postoperative tumor volumes are comparatively difficult to predict correctly.

Project description:BackgroundAtrial fibrillation (AF) can be maintained by localized intramural reentrant drivers. However, AF driver detection by clinical surface-only multielectrode mapping (MEM) has relied on subjective interpretation of activation maps. We hypothesized that application of machine learning to electrogram frequency spectra may accurately automate driver detection by MEM and add some objectivity to the interpretation of MEM findings.MethodsTemporally and spatially stable single AF drivers were mapped simultaneously in explanted human atria (n=11) by subsurface near-infrared optical mapping (NIOM; 0.3 mm2 resolution) and 64-electrode MEM (higher density or lower density with 3 and 9 mm2 resolution, respectively). Unipolar MEM and NIOM recordings were processed by Fourier transform analysis into 28 407 total Fourier spectra. Thirty-five features for machine learning were extracted from each Fourier spectrum.ResultsTargeted driver ablation and NIOM activation maps efficiently defined the center and periphery of AF driver preferential tracks and provided validated annotations for driver versus nondriver electrodes in MEM arrays. Compared with analysis of single electrogram frequency features, averaging the features from each of the 8 neighboring electrodes, significantly improved classification of AF driver electrograms. The classification metrics increased when less strict annotation, including driver periphery electrodes, were added to driver center annotation. Notably, f1-score for the binary classification of higher-density catheter data set was significantly higher than that of lower-density catheter (0.81±0.02 versus 0.66±0.04, P<0.05). The trained algorithm correctly highlighted 86% of driver regions with higher density but only 80% with lower-density MEM arrays (81% for lower-density+higher-density arrays together).ConclusionsThe machine learning model pretrained on Fourier spectrum features allows efficient classification of electrograms recordings as AF driver or nondriver compared with the NIOM gold-standard. Future application of NIOM-validated machine learning approach may improve the accuracy of AF driver detection for targeted ablation treatment in patients.

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Assessing and mapping multi-hazard risk susceptibility using a machine learning technique.

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Assessing and mapping multi-hazard risk susceptibility using a machine learning technique.

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