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Estimating uncertainty in geospatial modelling at multiple spatial resolutions: the pattern of delivery via caesarean section in Tanzania.

ABSTRACT: Visualising maternal and newborn health (MNH) outcomes at fine spatial resolutions is crucial to ensuring the most vulnerable women and children are not left behind in improving health. Disaggregated data on life-saving MNH interventions remain difficult to obtain, however, necessitating the use of Bayesian geostatistical models to map outcomes at small geographical areas. While these methods have improved model parameter estimates and precision among spatially correlated health outcomes and allowed for the quantification of uncertainty, few studies have examined the trade-off between higher spatial resolution modelling and how associated uncertainty propagates. Here, we explored the trade-off between model outcomes and associated uncertainty at increasing spatial resolutions by quantifying the posterior distribution of delivery via caesarean section (c-section) in Tanzania. Overall, in modelling delivery via c-section at multiple spatial resolutions, we demonstrated poverty to be negatively correlated across spatial resolutions, suggesting important disparities in obtaining life-saving obstetric surgery persist across sociodemographic factors. Lastly, we found that while uncertainty increased with higher spatial resolution input, model precision was best approximated at the highest spatial resolution, suggesting an important policy trade-off between identifying concealed spatial heterogeneities in health indicators.

SUBMITTER: Ruktanonchai CW

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7044704 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Estimating uncertainty in geospatial modelling at multiple spatial resolutions: the pattern of delivery via caesarean section in Tanzania.

Ruktanonchai Corrine Warren CW Nieves Jeremiah J JJ Ruktanonchai Nick W NW Nilsen Kristine K Steele Jessica E JE Matthews Zoe Z Tatem Andrew J AJ

BMJ global health 20190101 Suppl 5

Visualising maternal and newborn health (MNH) outcomes at fine spatial resolutions is crucial to ensuring the most vulnerable women and children are not left behind in improving health. Disaggregated data on life-saving MNH interventions remain difficult to obtain, however, necessitating the use of Bayesian geostatistical models to map outcomes at small geographical areas. While these methods have improved model parameter estimates and precision among spatially correlated health outcomes and all ...[more]

PMID: 32154032

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Project description:BackgroundThe inequity in emergency obstetric care access in Tanzania is unsatisfactory. Despite an existing national obstetric referral system, many birthing women bypass referring facilities and go directly to higher-level care centres. We wanted to compare Caesarean section (CS) rates among women formally referred to a tertiary care centre versus self-referred women, and to assess the effect of referral status on adverse outcomes after CS.MethodsWe used data from 21,011 deliveries, drawn from the birth registry of a tertiary hospital in northeastern Tanzania, during 2000-07. Referral status was categorized as self-referred if the woman had bypassed or not accessed referral, or formally-referred if referred by a health worker. Because CS indications were insufficiently registered, we applied the Ten-Group Classification System to determine the CS rate by obstetric group and referral status. Associations between referral status and adverse outcomes after CS delivery were analysed using multiple regression models. Outcome measures were CS, maternal death, obstetric haemorrhage ? 750 mL, postpartum stay > 9 days, neonatal death, Apgar score < 7 at 5 min and neonatal ward transfer.ResultsReferral status contributed substantially to the CS rate, which was 55.0% in formally-referred and 26.9% in self-referred birthing women. In both groups, term nulliparous singleton cephalic pregnancies and women with previous scar(s) constituted two thirds of CS deliveries. Low Apgar score (adjusted OR 1.42, 95% CI 1.09-1.86) and neonatal ward transfer (adjusted OR 1.18, 95% CI 1.04-1.35) were significantly associated with formal referral. Early neonatal death rates after CS were 1.6% in babies of formally-referred versus 1.2% in babies of self-referred birthing women, a non-significant difference after adjusting for confounding factors (adjusted OR 1.37, 95% CI 0.87-2.16). Absolute neonatal death rates were > 2% after CS in breech, multiple gestation and preterm deliveries in both referral groups.ConclusionsWomen referred for delivery had higher CS rates and poorer neonatal outcomes, suggesting that the formal referral system successfully identifies high-risk birth, although low volume suggests underutilization. High absolute rates of post-CS adverse outcomes among breech, multiple gestation and preterm deliveries suggest the need to target self-referred birthing women for earlier professional intrapartum care.

Project description:ObjectivesTo describe trends in caesarean sections and facilities performing caesareans over time in Tanzania and examine the readiness of such facilities in terms of infrastructure, equipment and staffing.DesignNationally representative, repeated cross-sectional surveys of women and health facilities.SettingTanzania.ParticipantsWomen of reproductive age and health facility staff.Main outcome measuresPopulation-based caesarean rate, absolute annual number of caesareans, percentage of facilities reporting to perform caesareans and three readiness indicators for safe caesarean care: availability of consistent electricity, 24?hour schedule for caesarean and anaesthesia providers, and availability of all general anaesthesia equipment.ResultsThe caesarean rate in Tanzania increased threefold from 2% in 1996 to 6% in 2015-16, while the total number of births increased by 60%. As a result, the absolute number of caesareans increased almost fivefold to 120?000 caesareans per year. The main mechanism sustaining the increase in caesareans was the doubling of median caesarean volume among public hospitals, from 17 caesareans per month in 2006 to 35 in 2014-15. The number of facilities performing caesareans increased only modestly over the same period. Less than half (43%) of caesareans in Tanzania in 2014-15 were performed in facilities meeting the three readiness indicators. Consistent electricity was widely available, and 24?hour schedules for caesarean and (less systematically) anaesthesia providers were observed in most facilities; however, the availability of all general anaesthesia equipment was the least commonly reported indicator, present in only 44% of all facilities (34% of public hospitals).ConclusionsGiven the rising trend in numbers of caesareans, urgent improvements in the availability of general anaesthesia equipment and trained anaesthesia staff should be made to ensure the safety of caesareans. Initial efforts should focus on improving anaesthesia provision in public and faith-based organisation hospitals, which together perform more than 90% of all caesareans in Tanzania.

Project description:BackgroundCaesarean section (CS) is not recommended for PMTCT in Malawi HIV Guidelines, contrary to most high-income countries where CS is indicated if viral suppression is sub-optimal pre-delivery. We describe patterns of CS in HIV-infected and uninfected women in Malawi and explored if insight into the use of Elective CS (ECS) for PMTCT could be obtained.MethodsWe used routinely collected data from individual medical records from 17 large health facilities in the central and southern regions of Malawi, from January 2010 to December 2013. We included data from maternity registers from all HIV-positive women, and randomly selected around every fourth woman with negative or unknown HIV status. We used multivariable logistic regressions and cluster-based robust standard errors to examine independent associations of patient- and facility characteristics with CS and ECS.ResultsWe included 62,033 women in the analysis. The weighted percentage of women who had a spontaneous vaginal delivery was 80.0% (CI 95% 79.5-80.4%); 2.4% (95% CI 2.3-2.6%) had a vacuum extraction; 2.3% (95% CI 2.2-2.5%) had a vaginal breech delivery; 14.0% (95% CI 13.6-14.4%) had a CS while for 1.3% (95% CI 1.2-1.4%) the mode of delivery was not recorded. Prevalence of CS without recorded medical or obstetric indication (ECS) was 5.1%, (n = 3152). Presence of maternal and infant complications and older age were independently associated with CS delivery. HIV-positive women were less likely to have ECS than HIV negative women (aOR 0.65; 95%-CI 0.57-0.74). Among HIV-positive women, those on antiretrovirals (ARV's) for ≥4 weeks prior to delivery were less likely to have ECS than HIV-positive women who had not received ARVs during pregnancy (aOR 0.81; 95% CI 0.68-0.96).ConclusionsThe pattern of CS's in Malawi is largely determined by maternal and infant complications. Positive HIV status was negatively associated with CS delivery, possibly because health care workers were concerned about the risk of occupational HIV transmission and the known increased risk of post-operative complications. Our results leave open the possibility that CS is practiced to prevent MTCT given that ECS was more common among women at high risk of MTCT due to no or short exposure to ARV's.

Dataset Information

Estimating uncertainty in geospatial modelling at multiple spatial resolutions: the pattern of delivery via caesarean section in Tanzania.

Publications

Estimating uncertainty in geospatial modelling at multiple spatial resolutions: the pattern of delivery via caesarean section in Tanzania.

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