Dataset Information

The future incidence, prevalence and costs of stroke in the UK.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:we project incidence and prevalence of stroke in the UK and associated costs to society to 2035. We include future costs of health care, social care, unpaid care and lost productivity, drawing on recent estimates that there are almost 1 million people living with stroke and the current cost of their care is £26 billion. METHODS:we developed a model to produce projections, building on earlier work to estimate the costs of stroke care by age, gender and other characteristics. Our cell-based simulation model uses the 2014-based Office for National Statistics population projections; future trends in incidence and prevalence rates of stroke derived from an expert consultation exercise; and data from the Office for Budget Responsibility on expected future changes in productivity and average earnings. RESULTS:between 2015 and 2035, the number of strokes in the UK per year is projected to increase by 60% and the number of stroke survivors is projected to more than double. Under current patterns of care, the societal cost is projected to almost treble in constant prices over the period. The greatest increase is projected to be in social care costs-both public and private-which we anticipate will rise by as much as 250% between 2015 and 2035. CONCLUSION:the costs of stroke care in the UK are expected to rise rapidly over the next two decades unless measures to prevent strokes and to reduce the disabling effects of strokes can be successfully developed and implemented.

SUBMITTER: King D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7047821 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The future incidence, prevalence and costs of stroke in the UK.

King Derek D Wittenberg Raphael R Patel Anita A Quayyum Zahid Z Berdunov Vladislav V Knapp Martin M

Age and ageing 20200201 2

<h4>Background</h4>we project incidence and prevalence of stroke in the UK and associated costs to society to 2035. We include future costs of health care, social care, unpaid care and lost productivity, drawing on recent estimates that there are almost 1 million people living with stroke and the current cost of their care is £26 billion.<h4>Methods</h4>we developed a model to produce projections, building on earlier work to estimate the costs of stroke care by age, gender and other characterist ...[more]

PMID: 31957781

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Project description:The epidemiology of coma is unknown because case ascertainment with traditional methods is difficult. Here, we used crowdsourcing methodology to estimate the incidence and prevalence of coma in the UK and the USA. We recruited UK and US laypeople (aged ≥18 years) who were nationally representative (i.e. matched for age, gender and ethnicity according to census data) of the UK and the USA, respectively, utilizing a crowdsourcing platform. We provided a description of coma and asked survey participants if they-'right now' or 'within the last year'-had a family member in coma. These participants (UK n = 994, USA n = 977) provided data on 30 387 family members (UK n = 14 124, USA n = 16 263). We found more coma cases in the USA (n = 47) than in the UK (n = 20; P = 0.009). We identified one coma case in the UK (0.007%, 95% confidence interval 0.00-0.04%) on the day of the survey and 19 new coma cases (0.13%, 95% confidence interval 0.08-0.21%) within the preceding year, resulting in an annual incidence of 135/100 000 (95% confidence interval 81-210) and a point prevalence of 7 cases per 100 000 population (95% confidence interval 0.18-39.44) in the UK. We identified five cases in the USA (0.031%, 95% confidence interval 0.01-0.07%) on the day of the survey and 42 new cases (0.26%, 95% confidence interval 0.19-0.35%) within the preceding year, resulting in an annual incidence of 258/100 000 (95% confidence interval 186-349) and a point prevalence of 31 cases per 100 000 population (95% confidence interval 9.98-71.73) in the USA. The five most common causes were stroke, medically induced coma, COVID-19, traumatic brain injury and cardiac arrest. To summarize, for the first time, we report incidence and prevalence estimates for coma across diagnosis types and settings in the UK and the USA using crowdsourcing methods. Coma may be more prevalent in the USA than in the UK, which requires further investigation. These data are urgently needed to expand the public health perspective on coma and disorders of consciousness.

Project description:ObjectivesLiverpool has high prevalence of alcohol use disorders (AUDs) compared with the rest of the UK. Early identification and referral in primary care would improve treatment for people with AUD. This study aimed to identify changes in prevalence and incidence of AUD in primary care in Liverpool, to identify local need for specialist services.DesignCross-sectional retrospective analysis of electronic health records.SettingNational Health Service (NHS) Liverpool Clinical Commissioning Group (CCG) primary care. In total, 62 of the 86 general practitioner (GP) practices agreed to share their anonymised Egton Medical Information Systems (EMIS) data from 1 January 2017 to 31 December 2021.ParticipantsPatients aged over 18 years with a SNOMED code for alcohol dependence (AD) or hazardous drinking (N=4936). Patients were excluded if they had requested that their data was not to be shared, and practices were excluded if they opted out (N=2) or did not respond to the data sharing request (N=22).Primary and secondary outcomesPrevalence and incidence of AUD diagnoses in primary care over the 5-year period; demographic profile of patients (sex, age, ethnicity, occupation); GP postcode; alcohol-related medications; and psychiatric and physical comorbidities.ResultsThere were significant decreases in incidence of AD and hazardous drinking diagnoses over the 5 years (p<0.001 in all cases). Prevalence showed less change over time. Diagnoses were significantly higher in more deprived areas (Indices of Multiple Deprivation decile 1 vs 2-10). Overall pharmacotherapy prescriptions were lower than national estimates.ConclusionsThere are low levels of identification of AUDs in primary care in Liverpool, and this is decreasing year on year. There was weak evidence to suggest patients in the most deprived areas are less likely to receive pharmacotherapy once diagnosed. Future research should seek to investigate practitioner and patient perspectives on barriers and facilitators to management of AUDs in primary care.

Project description:AimTo estimate annual societal costs associated with chemotherapy for early breast cancer in the UK.DesignMixed methods: (a) an incidence-based cost-of-illness model was developed of indirect costs in patients with breast cancer and carers, and estimated from diagnosis through active treatment until death; (b) interviews with stakeholders were also undertaken to understand actual experiences and impacts of these costs.Data sourcesModel data were collated from relevant national data sources covering general population statistics, UK cancer registries, clinical guidelines and published literature, and patient survey data. Patient and staff views were collected through semistructured interviews.ParticipantsModel: patients with early breast cancer receiving systemic anticancer therapy in the UK. Interviews were undertaken with women who had chemotherapy and medical practitioners involved in breast cancer care.ResultsTotal costs of chemotherapy in the UK economy are over £248 million. Societal productivity losses amount to £141.4 million, which includes £3.2 million associated with premature mortality, short-term and long-term work absence (£28.6 million and £105 million, respectively). £3.4 million is associated with mortality losses from secondary malignancies due to adjuvant chemotherapy. A further £1.1 million in lost productivity arises from informal care provision. Out-of-pocket costs per round of chemotherapy account for £4.2 million, or an annual average of almost £1100 per patient. Interview findings support the cost burden modelled and also highlight the impact on cognitive function of patients and how this could increase the cost burden to patients, their families and wider society. In addition, estimated costs for carer emotional well-being are £82 million in lost quality of life.ConclusionChemotherapy use carries significant indirect costs for society, as well as patients and their carers. These wider costs and societal perspective should be considered by commissioners to ensure chemotherapy is better targeted at those who most need it and to avoid placing unnecessary costs on patients, their caregivers and wider society.

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The future incidence, prevalence and costs of stroke in the UK.

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The future incidence, prevalence and costs of stroke in the UK.

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