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Do Plans Really Matter?: Re-Assessing the Role of Adolescent Expectations in Educational Attainment.

ABSTRACT: Stratification research in the status attainment tradition contends that adolescent educational expectations are a central determinant of educational attainment. Little research, however, has assessed the robustness of the powerful expectations-attainment associations revealed in cross-sectional models. Using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health to estimate OLS, school fixed effects, and sibling fixed effects models, this study examines the association between adolescent expectations and educational attainment. The analysis reveals that adolescent expectations may play a much smaller role in predicting educational attainment than revealed in cross-sectional models. Point estimates of the association between adolescent expectations and educational attainment from sibling fixed effects models are over 50 percent lower than OLS estimates, suggesting that family-level characteristics confound this relationship. Results from these analyses demonstrate that respondents' educational expectations likely exert less influence on educational attainment than status attainment research would suggest.

SUBMITTER: Fishman SH

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7050998 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Do Plans Really Matter?: Re-Assessing the Role of Adolescent Expectations in Educational Attainment.

Fishman Samuel H SH

Research in social stratification and mobility 20190513

Stratification research in the status attainment tradition contends that adolescent educational expectations are a central determinant of educational attainment. Little research, however, has assessed the robustness of the powerful expectations-attainment associations revealed in cross-sectional models. Using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health to estimate OLS, school fixed effects, and sibling fixed effects models, this study examines the association between ...[more]

PMID: 32123462

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Project description:Adolescents with high educational attainment generally have better outcomes across the lifespan than adolescents with lower educational attainment. This study investigated how three measures of socioeconomic status (SES)-maternal education, paternal education, and neighbourhood SES-combined to predict adolescent educational attainment (track level at age 17). We proposed three mechanisms for this pathway: cognitive ability (at age 11), primary school teacher assessment (stating the secondary education level suitable for a child at age 11), and educational expectations (at age 14). Using the data of 2,814 Dutch adolescents from the Prevention and Incidence of Asthma and Mite Allergy (PIAMA) study, logistic regressions tested associations between SES and educational attainment. Structural equation modelling (SEM) tested mediational pathways between SES and educational attainment. In models with three SES measures, having a medium-educated mother was associated with higher educational attainment relative to having a low-educated mother (OR; 95% CI: 1.83; 1.41-2.38), and having a high-educated mother was associated with higher educational attainment relative to having a low-educated mother (OR; 95% CI: 3.44; 2.59-4.55). The odds ratios for paternal education showed a similar pattern. We found no association between neighbourhood SES and adolescent educational attainment, so neighbourhood SES was removed from further analyses. Mediational analyses revealed that cognitive ability (30.0%), teacher assessment (28.5%), and educational expectations (1.2%) explained 59.8% of the total association between parental SES and educational attainment. The results showed that mother education and father education were both important for understanding the strong association between parental SES and adolescent educational attainment. In the Netherlands, the association between parental SES and educational attainment can be largely explained by cognitive ability and teacher assessments.

Dataset Information

Do Plans Really Matter?: Re-Assessing the Role of Adolescent Expectations in Educational Attainment.

Publications

Do Plans Really Matter?: Re-Assessing the Role of Adolescent Expectations in Educational Attainment.

Similar Datasets

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