Dataset Information

Estimated effectiveness of symptom and risk screening to prevent the spread of COVID-19.

ABSTRACT: Traveller screening is being used to limit further spread of COVID-19 following its recent emergence, and symptom screening has become a ubiquitous tool in the global response. Previously, we developed a mathematical model to understand factors governing the effectiveness of traveller screening to prevent spread of emerging pathogens (Gostic et al., 2015). Here, we estimate the impact of different screening programs given current knowledge of key COVID-19 life history and epidemiological parameters. Even under best-case assumptions, we estimate that screening will miss more than half of infected people. Breaking down the factors leading to screening successes and failures, we find that most cases missed by screening are fundamentally undetectable, because they have not yet developed symptoms and are unaware they were exposed. Our work underscores the need for measures to limit transmission by individuals who become ill after being missed by a screening program. These findings can support evidence-based policy to combat the spread of COVID-19, and prospective planning to mitigate future emerging pathogens.

SUBMITTER: Gostic K

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7060038 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Estimated effectiveness of symptom and risk screening to prevent the spread of COVID-19.

Gostic Katelyn K Gomez Ana Cr AC Mummah Riley O RO Kucharski Adam J AJ Lloyd-Smith James O JO

eLife 20200224

Traveller screening is being used to limit further spread of COVID-19 following its recent emergence, and symptom screening has become a ubiquitous tool in the global response. Previously, we developed a mathematical model to understand factors governing the effectiveness of traveller screening to prevent spread of emerging pathogens (Gostic et al., 2015). Here, we estimate the impact of different screening programs given current knowledge of key COVID-19 life history and epidemiological paramet ...[more]

PMID: 32091395

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Project description:ObjectiveTo evaluate clinical effectiveness of regdanvimab, a monoclonal antibody agent for treating coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19).MethodsA retrospective cohort study was conducted at two general hospitals during the study period of December 2020 to May 2021. Mild COVID-19 patients with risk factors for disease progression admitted to the hospitals within seven days of symptom onset were enrolled and followed until discharge or referral. Multivariate analyses for disease progression were conducted in the total and propensity score (PS)-matched cohorts.ResultsA total of 778 mild COVID-19 patients were included and classified as the regdanvimab (n = 234) and supportive care (n = 544) groups. Significantly fewer patients required O2 supplementation via nasal prong in the regdanvimab group (8.1%) than in the supportive care group (18.4%, P < 0.001). The decreased risk for O2 support by regdanvimab treatment was noticed in the multivariate analysis of the total cohort (HR 0.570, 95% CI 0.343-0.946, P = 0.030), but it was not statistically significant in the PS-matched cohort (P = 0.057). Progression to severe disease was also significantly lower in the regdanvimab group (2.1%) than in the supportive care group (9.6%, P < 0.001). The significantly reduced risk for progression to severe disease by regdanvimab treatment was observed in the analysis of both the total cohort (HR 0.262, 95% CI 0.103-0.667, P = 0.005) and PS-matched cohort (HR 0.176, 95% CI 0.060-0.516, P = 0.002). Potential risk factors for progression were investigated in the supportive care group and SpO2 < 97% and CRP elevation >1.5 mg/dL were common risk factors for O2 support and progression to severe disease. Among the patients with any of these factors, regdanvimab treatment was associated with decreased risk for progression to severe disease with slightly lower HR (HR 0.202, 95% CI 0.062-0.657, P = 0.008) than that of the total cohort.ConclusionRegdanvimab treatment was associated with a decreased risk of progression to severe disease.

Project description:ImportanceEffectiveness of mRNA vaccinations in a diverse older population with high comorbidity is unknown.ObjectivesTo describe the scope of the COVID-19 vaccination rollout among US veterans, and to estimate mRNA COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) as measured by rates of SARS-CoV-2 infection.Design, setting, and participantsThis matched test-negative case-control study was conducted using SARS-CoV-2 test results at Veterans Health Administration sites from December 14, 2020, to March 14, 2021. Vaccine coverage was estimated for all veterans. VE against SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19-related hospitalization and death were estimated using electronic health records from veterans who routinely sought care at a VHA facility and had a test result positive for SARS-CoV-2 (cases) or negative for SARS-CoV-2 (controls). Cases and controls were matched on time of test and geographic region. Data were analyzed from May to July 2021.ExposuresVaccination status, defined as unvaccinated, partially vaccinated (≥14 days after first dose until second dose), or fully vaccinated (≥14 days after second dose), at time of test.Main outcomes and measuresThe main outcome of interest was a positive result for SARS-CoV-2 on a polymerase chain reaction or antigen test. Secondary outcomes included COVID-19-related hospitalization and death, defined by discharge data and proximity of event to positive test result. VE was estimated from odds ratios for SARS-CoV-2 infection with 95% CIs.ResultsAmong 6 647 733 veterans included (3 350 373 veterans [50%] aged ≥65 years; 6 014 798 [90%] men and 632 935 [10%] women; 461 645 Hispanic veterans of any race [7%], 1 102 471 non-Hispanic Black veterans [17%], and 4 361 621 non-Hispanic White veterans [66%]), 1 363 180 (21%) received at least 1 COVID-19 vaccination by March 7, 2021. In this period, during which the share of SARS-CoV-2 variants Alpha, Epsilon, and Iota had started to increase in the US, estimates of COVID-19 VE against infection, regardless of symptoms, was 95% (95% CI, 93%-96%) for full vaccination and 64% (95% CI, 59%-68%) for partial vaccination. Estimated VE against COVID-19-related hospitalization for full vaccination was 91% (95% CI 83%-95%); there were no deaths among veterans who were fully vaccinated. VE against infection was similar across subpopulations (non-Hispanic Black, 94% [95% CI, 88%-97%]; Hispanic [any race], 83% [95% CI, 45%-95%]; non-Hispanic White, 92% [95% CI 88%-94%]; rural, 94% [95% CI, 89%-96%]; urban, 93% 95% CI, 89%-95%]).Conclusions and relevanceFor veterans of all racial and ethnic subgroups living in urban or rural areas, mRNA vaccination was associated with substantially decreased risk of COVID-19 infection and hospitalization, with no deaths among fully vaccinated veterans.

Dataset Information

Estimated effectiveness of symptom and risk screening to prevent the spread of COVID-19.

Publications

Estimated effectiveness of symptom and risk screening to prevent the spread of COVID-19.

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