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Estimated effectiveness of traveller screening to prevent international spread of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV).

ABSTRACT: Traveller screening is being used to limit further global spread of 2019 novel coronavirus (nCoV) following its recent emergence. Here, we project the impact of different travel screening programs given remaining uncertainty around the values of key nCoV life history and epidemiological parameters. Even under best-case assumptions, we estimate that screening will miss more than half of infected travellers. Breaking down the factors leading to screening successes and failures, we find that most cases missed by screening are fundamentally undetectable, because they have not yet developed symptoms and are unaware they were exposed. These findings emphasize the need for measures to track travellers who become ill after being missed by a travel screening program. We make our model available for interactive use so stakeholders can explore scenarios of interest using the most up-to-date information. We hope these findings contribute to evidence-based policy to combat the spread of nCoV, and to prospective planning to mitigate future emerging pathogens.

SUBMITTER: Gostic KM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7216848 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Estimated effectiveness of traveller screening to prevent international spread of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV).

Gostic Katelyn M KM Gomez Ana C R ACR Mummah Riley O RO Kucharski Adam J AJ Lloyd-Smith James O JO

medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences 20200203

Traveller screening is being used to limit further global spread of 2019 novel coronavirus (nCoV) following its recent emergence. Here, we project the impact of different travel screening programs given remaining uncertainty around the values of key nCoV life history and epidemiological parameters. Even under best-case assumptions, we estimate that screening will miss more than half of infected travellers. Breaking down the factors leading to screening successes and failures, we find that most c ...[more]

PMID: 32511422

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Project description:A novel coronavirus, called 2019-nCoV, was recently found in Wuhan, Hubei Province of China, and now is spreading across China and other parts of the world. Although there are some drugs to treat 2019-nCoV, there is no proper scientific evidence about its activity on the virus. It is of high significance to develop a drug that can combat the virus effectively to save valuable human lives. It usually takes a much longer time to develop a drug using traditional methods. For 2019-nCoV, it is now better to rely on some alternative methods such as deep learning to develop drugs that can combat such a disease effectively since 2019-nCoV is highly homologous to SARS-CoV. In the present work, we first collected virus RNA sequences of 18 patients reported to have 2019-nCoV from the public domain database, translated the RNA into protein sequences, and performed multiple sequence alignment. After a careful literature survey and sequence analysis, 3C-like protease is considered to be a major therapeutic target and we built a protein 3D model of 3C-like protease using homology modeling. Relying on the structural model, we used a pipeline to perform large scale virtual screening by using a deep learning based method to accurately rank/identify protein-ligand interacting pairs developed recently in our group. Our model identified potential drugs for 2019-nCoV 3C-like protease by performing drug screening against four chemical compound databases (Chimdiv, Targetmol-Approved_Drug_Library, Targetmol-Natural_Compound_Library, and Targetmol-Bioactive_Compound_Library) and a database of tripeptides. Through this paper, we provided the list of possible chemical ligands (Meglumine, Vidarabine, Adenosine, D-Sorbitol, D-Mannitol, Sodium_gluconate, Ganciclovir and Chlorobutanol) and peptide drugs (combination of isoleucine, lysine and proline) from the databases to guide the experimental scientists and validate the molecules which can combat the virus in a shorter time.

Dataset Information

Estimated effectiveness of traveller screening to prevent international spread of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV).

Publications

Estimated effectiveness of traveller screening to prevent international spread of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV).

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