Dataset Information

Provincial and gridded population projection for China under shared socioeconomic pathways from 2010 to 2100.

ABSTRACT: In response to a growing demand for subnational and spatially explicit data on China's future population, this study estimates China's provincial population from 2010 to 2100 by age (0-100+), sex (male and female) and educational levels (illiterate, primary school, junior-high school, senior-high school, college, bachelor's, and master's and above) under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The provincial projection takes into account fertility promoting policies and population ceiling restrictions of megacities that have been implemented in China in recent years to reduce systematic biases in current studies. The predicted provincial population is allocated to spatially explicit population grids for each year at 30 arc-seconds resolution based on representative concentration pathway (RCP) urban grids and historical population grids. The provincial projection data were validated using population data in 2017 from China's Provincial Statistical Yearbook, and the accuracy of the population grids in 2015 was evaluated. These data have numerous potential uses and can serve as inputs in climate policy research with requirements for precise administrative or spatial population data in China.

SUBMITTER: Chen Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7062824 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Provincial and gridded population projection for China under shared socioeconomic pathways from 2010 to 2100.

Chen Yidan Y Guo Fang F Wang Jiachen J Cai Wenjia W Wang Can C Wang Kaicun K

Scientific data 20200309 1

In response to a growing demand for subnational and spatially explicit data on China's future population, this study estimates China's provincial population from 2010 to 2100 by age (0-100+), sex (male and female) and educational levels (illiterate, primary school, junior-high school, senior-high school, college, bachelor's, and master's and above) under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The provincial projection takes into account fertility promoting policies and population ceilin ...[more]

PMID: 32152299

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Project description:The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are the new set of alternative futures of societal development that inform global and regional climate change research. They have the potential to foster the integration of socioeconomic scenarios within assessments of future climate-related health impacts. To date, such assessments have primarily superimposed climate scenarios on current socioeconomic conditions only. Until now, the few assessments of future health risks that employed the SSPs have focused on future human exposure-i.e., mainly future population patterns-, neglecting future human vulnerability. This paper first explores the research gaps-mainly linked to the paucity of available projections-that explain such a lack of consideration of human vulnerability under the SSPs. It then highlights the need for projections of socioeconomic variables covering the wide range of determinants of human vulnerability, available at relevant spatial and temporal scales, and accounting for local specificities through sectoral and regional extended versions of the global SSPs. Finally, this paper presents two innovative methods of obtaining and computing such socioeconomic projections under the SSPs-namely the scenario matching approach and an approach based on experts' elicitation and correlation analyses-and applies them to the case of Europe. They offer a variety of possibilities for practical application, producing projections at sub-national level of various drivers of human vulnerability such as demographic and social characteristics, urbanization, state of the environment, infrastructure, health status, and living arrangements. Both the innovative approaches presented in this paper and existing methods-such as the spatial disaggregation of existing projections and the use of sectoral models-show great potential to enhance the availability of relevant projections of determinants of human vulnerability. Assessments of future climate-related health impacts should thus rely on these methods to account for future human vulnerability-under varying levels of socioeconomic development-and to explore its influence on future health risks under different degrees of climate change.

Dataset Information

Provincial and gridded population projection for China under shared socioeconomic pathways from 2010 to 2100.

Publications

Provincial and gridded population projection for China under shared socioeconomic pathways from 2010 to 2100.

Similar Datasets

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