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Gridded value-added of primary, secondary and tertiary industries in China under Shard Socioeconomic Pathways

ABSTRACT: Gridded distribution of future economy plays an important role in climate change impact assessment. The trend of the output values of different industries is crucial for a variety of planning and design processes. Under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) global framework, the multidimensional model and Cobb-Douglas production model with localized population and economic parameters are used to develop the annual provincial population and value-added of primary, secondary and tertiary industries in China from 2020 to 2100. The most recently implemented fertility-promoting and industrial planning policies in China are considered in our projections. We build multiple models to evaluate the impact of different types of land use on the value-added of primary, secondary and tertiary industries and then gridded the projected value-added to a 5′ × 5′ resolution, based on recorded county-level economic statistics and gridded land use. The reliability of estimations is verified against 2011–2019 statistical data and multiple published datasets. The high-resolution economic dataset is expected to contribute greatly to national and regional climate change impact, adaptation, and vulnerability studies. Measurement(s)Population • Value-added of industries • Gridded dataTechnology Type(s)multidimensional projection model • Cobb-Douglas production model • computational modeling techniqueSample Characteristic - LocationChina

SUBMITTER: Jing C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9203515 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Background and objectiveThree screening approaches were compared for their ability to detect CKD cases, and identify patients with CKD who have a higher rate of incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) events and renal function decline. Approach 1 was the traditional CKD screening approach, targeting only individuals with known diabetes, hypertension, or CVD history. Approach 2 was defined as Approach 1+elderly, and Approach 3 as Approach 1+low-socioeconomic status (SES) individuals.Design, setting, participants, & measurementsData on 3411 individuals from the general population in The Netherlands were examined. Individuals aged >60 years were classified as elderly. Persons with low SES was defined as those with primary school or below primary school education. CKD was diagnosed during outpatient clinic visits. Individuals were followed for 9.4±2.6 years during four screening rounds.ResultsAt baseline, 16%, 29%, and 25% of the general population was to be screened and 36%, 59%, and 51% of the CKD (n=263) cases were detected in Approaches 1, 2, and 3, respectively. The numbers of individuals needed to screen to detect one CKD case were 5.6 in Approach 1 and 6.5 each in Approach 2 and 3. In Approach 2 the hazard ratio for incident CVD events was 1.87 (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.35 to 2.61) in detected and 1.92 (95% CI, 1.01 to 3.64) in undetected CKD cases compared with persons without CKD, whereas in Approach 3 these values were 2.31 (95% CI, 1.64 to 3.25) and 1.28 (95% CI, 0.77 to 2.13), respectively. In Approach 2, the rate of renal function decline was -1.37 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) per year in detected and -1.13 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) per year in undetected CKD cases. In Approach 3, these figures were -1.41 and -1.14 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) per year, respectively.ConclusionsAdding persons with low SES, rather than adding elderly persons, to the traditional high-risk groups may help detect more persons with CKD who have a higher rate of future CVD events and renal function decline.

Project description:The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are the new set of alternative futures of societal development that inform global and regional climate change research. They have the potential to foster the integration of socioeconomic scenarios within assessments of future climate-related health impacts. To date, such assessments have primarily superimposed climate scenarios on current socioeconomic conditions only. Until now, the few assessments of future health risks that employed the SSPs have focused on future human exposure-i.e., mainly future population patterns-, neglecting future human vulnerability. This paper first explores the research gaps-mainly linked to the paucity of available projections-that explain such a lack of consideration of human vulnerability under the SSPs. It then highlights the need for projections of socioeconomic variables covering the wide range of determinants of human vulnerability, available at relevant spatial and temporal scales, and accounting for local specificities through sectoral and regional extended versions of the global SSPs. Finally, this paper presents two innovative methods of obtaining and computing such socioeconomic projections under the SSPs-namely the scenario matching approach and an approach based on experts' elicitation and correlation analyses-and applies them to the case of Europe. They offer a variety of possibilities for practical application, producing projections at sub-national level of various drivers of human vulnerability such as demographic and social characteristics, urbanization, state of the environment, infrastructure, health status, and living arrangements. Both the innovative approaches presented in this paper and existing methods-such as the spatial disaggregation of existing projections and the use of sectoral models-show great potential to enhance the availability of relevant projections of determinants of human vulnerability. Assessments of future climate-related health impacts should thus rely on these methods to account for future human vulnerability-under varying levels of socioeconomic development-and to explore its influence on future health risks under different degrees of climate change.

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Gridded value-added of primary, secondary and tertiary industries in China under Shard Socioeconomic Pathways

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