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A Multidimensional Array Representation of State-Transition Model Dynamics.


ABSTRACT: Cost-effectiveness analyses often rely on cohort state-transition models (cSTMs). The cohort trace is the primary outcome of cSTMs, which captures the proportion of the cohort in each health state over time (state occupancy). However, the cohort trace is an aggregated measure that does not capture information about the specific transitions among health states (transition dynamics). In practice, these transition dynamics are crucial in many applications, such as incorporating transition rewards or computing various epidemiological outcomes that could be used for model calibration and validation (e.g., disease incidence and lifetime risk). In this article, we propose an alternative approach to compute and store cSTMs outcomes that capture both state occupancy and transition dynamics. This approach produces a multidimensional array from which both the state occupancy and the transition dynamics can be recovered. We highlight the advantages of the multidimensional array over the traditional cohort trace and provide potential applications of the proposed approach with an example coded in R to facilitate the implementation of our method.

SUBMITTER: Krijkamp EM 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7065927 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A Multidimensional Array Representation of State-Transition Model Dynamics.

Krijkamp Eline M EM   Alarid-Escudero Fernando F   Enns Eva A EA   Pechlivanoglou Petros P   Hunink M G Myriam MGM   Yang Alan A   Jalal Hawre J HJ  

Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making 20200128 2


Cost-effectiveness analyses often rely on cohort state-transition models (cSTMs). The cohort trace is the primary outcome of cSTMs, which captures the proportion of the cohort in each health state over time (state occupancy). However, the cohort trace is an aggregated measure that does not capture information about the specific transitions among health states (transition dynamics). In practice, these transition dynamics are crucial in many applications, such as incorporating transition rewards o  ...[more]

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