Multistate Markov Model to Predict the Prognosis of High-Risk Human Papillomavirus-Related Cervical Lesions.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Taguchi A
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7072567 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jan
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Multistate Markov Model to Predict the Prognosis of High-Risk Human Papillomavirus-Related Cervical Lesions.
Taguchi Ayumi A Hara Konan K Tomio Jun J Kawana Kei K Tanaka Tomoki T Baba Satoshi S Kawata Akira A Eguchi Satoko S Tsuruga Tetsushi T Mori Mayuyo M Adachi Katsuyuki K Nagamatsu Takeshi T Oda Katsutoshi K Yasugi Toshiharu T Osuga Yutaka Y Fujii Tomoyuki T
Cancers 20200122 2
Cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) has a natural history of bidirectional transition between different states. Therefore, conventional statistical models assuming a unidirectional disease progression may oversimplify CIN fate. We applied a continuous-time multistate Markov model to predict this CIN fate by addressing the probability of transitions between multiple states according to the genotypes of high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV). This retrospective cohort comprised 6022 observation ...[more]
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Project description:IntroductionIt is pertinent to evaluate the impact of vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV) in real life. The aim of the study was to evaluate the real-life impact of HPV vaccination in the first birth cohort of Danish women offered free HPV vaccination as girls and invited to screening at the age of 23 years.Material and methodsWomen born in 1993 were offered free HPV vaccination at the age of 15 years but women born in 1983 have never been offered free HPV vaccination. We followed these two birth cohorts for 10 years from the age of 15 to after their first invitation to screening, and compared the risk of high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN). Data were obtained from Danish national health registers.ResultsVaccination coverage was 91% in the 1993 birth cohort and <0.1% in the 1983 cohort. Screening coverage was close to 80% in both cohorts. CIN2+ was detected in 4% of the 15 748 screened women born in 1983 and in 3% of the 19 951 screened women born in 1993. The risk of high-grade CIN was reduced by about 30% in the 1993 cohort compared with the 1983 cohort; for CIN2+ relative risk 0.74 (95% CI 0.66-0.82) and for CIN3+ relative risk 0.68 (95% CI 0.58-0.79).ConclusionsThis study investigated the real-life impact of quadrivalent HPV vaccination by comparing a cohort of women offered HPV vaccination with a cohort of women not offered HPV vaccination. The observed decrease in the detection of high-grade cervical lesions following HPV vaccination is in line with results from the randomized trials and has important implications for future cervical screening of HPV vaccinated cohorts.
| S-EPMC7540379 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveTo study the outcome of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection in women with cervical pathology results of non-cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) or cervical cancer and positive high-risk HPV test, as well as analyze the associated risk factors affecting the outcome of infection.MethodsTo investigate the outcome of high-risk (HR)-HPV infection in the female genital tract and analyze the associated risk factors affecting their outcome, a total of 196 women with positive HR-HPV test results and non-CIN or cervical cancer cervical pathology results were selected for follow-up at the Cervical Disease Clinic of the Obstetrics and Gynecology Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine from January 2017 to March 2020. The follow-up interval was every 6 months, and both cervical cytology (TCT) and HR-HPV testing were performed at each follow-up visit. If the cervical cytology results were normal upon recheck and the HR-HPV test was negative, the woman was considered to be cleared of the HPV infection and was entered into the routine cervical screening population. When the repeat HR-HPV test remained positive after 6 months, the woman was defined as having a persistent HR-HPV infection. If HR-HPV persisted but the TCT results were normal, follow-up was continued. If HR-HPV persisted and the TCT results were abnormal, a colposcopy-guided biopsy was performed immediately. In this situation, if the histological results were still non-CIN or cervical cancer, the follow-up was continued. If the histological results confirmed the development of CIN or invasive cancer, then enter another study follow-up to further track its development and outcome, and the woman commenced the treatment process. The HPV infection clearance time was analyzed by the Kaplan-Meier method, and the comparison of the HPV clearance rate and infection clearance time between each of the different groups was performed using aχ2 test or Fisher's exact test, as appropriate. After the univariate analysis, several significant factors were included in the Cox model and independent risk factors were analyzed.ResultsA total of 163 women were enrolled in this study. The median age was 40.0 years (22-67 years) and the median follow-up time was 11.5 months (6-31 months). The spontaneous clearance rate of HR-HPV infection was 51.5%, and the median time to viral clearance was 14.5 months. Age and the initial viral load were high risk factors affecting the spontaneous clearance of HR-HPV infection. The factors significantly associated with HPV clearance rate and time to HPV clearance consisted of menopause and full-term delivery (P < 0.05).ConclusionsIn women with normal or low-grade lesions on the cell smear, the spontaneous clearance rate of HR-HPV infection was 51.5% and the time to clearance was 14.5 months. Age and the initial viral load were independent associated factors affecting the spontaneous clearance of HR-HPV infection in the female genital tract. These findings suggest that non-young women or those with high viral loads have a higher rate of persistent HR-HPV infection. Thus, intensive screening should be recommended.
| S-EPMC10644444 | biostudies-literature
Project description:HPV16 accounts for 50-70% of cervical cancer cases worldwide. Characterization of HPV16 variants previously indicated that they differ in risks for viral persistence, progression to cervical precancer and malignant cancer. The aim of this study was to examine the association of severity of disease with HPV16 variants identified in specimens (n = 281) obtained from a Cervical Pathology and Colposcopy outpatient clinic in the University Hospital of Espírito Santo State, Southeastern Brazil, from April 2010 to November 2011. All cytologic and histologic diagnoses were determined prior to definitive treatment. The DNA was isolated using QIAamp DNA Mini Kit and HPV was detected by amplification with PGMY09/11 primers and positive samples were genotyped by RFLP analyses and reverse line blot. The genomes of the HPV16 positive samples were sequenced, from which variant lineages were determined. Chi2 statistics was performed to test the association of HPV16 variants between case and control groups. The prevalence of HR-HPV types in <CIN1, CIN2 and CIN3+ were 33.7%, 84.4% and 91.6%, respectively. Thirty-eight of 49 (78%) HPV16 positive samples yielded HPV16 sequence information; of which, 32 complete genomes were sequenced and an additional 6 samples were partially sequenced. Phylogenetic analysis and patterns of variations identified 65.8% (n = 25) as HPV16 European (E) and 34.2% (n = 13) as non-European (NE) variants. Classification of disease into CIN3+ vs. <CIN3 indicated that NE types were associated with high-grade disease with an OR = 4.6 (1.07-20.2, p = 0.05). The association of HPV16 NE variants with an increased risk of CIN3+ is consistent with an HPV16 genetically determined enhanced oncogenicity. The prevalence of genetic variants of HPV16 is distributed across different geographical areas and with recent population admixture, only empiric data will provide information on the highest risk HPV16 variants within a given population.
| S-EPMC4077691 | biostudies-literature
Project description:AimTo analyze the distribution of high-risk human papillomavirus (HR-HPV) genotypes and the diversity of HPV-16 genomic variants in Croatian women with high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (HSIL) and cervical carcinoma.MethodsTissue biopsy specimens were obtained from 324 women with histopathologically confirmed HSIL or cervical carcinoma, 5 women with low-grade SIL, and 49 women with negative histopathology. HR-HPV DNA was detected with Ampliquality HPV-type nucleic-acid hybridization assay, which identifies 29 different HPV genotypes. HPV-16 genomic variants were analyzed by an in-house sequencing.ResultsThe most common HPV type in women with HSIL was HPV-16, detected in 127/219 (57.9%) specimens. HPV-16 was also the dominant type in squamous cell cervical carcinoma (46/69 or 66.7%) and in adenocarcinoma (18/36 or 50.0%). Out of 378 patients, 360 had HR-HPV (282 single infections and 79 multiple infections), 3 (0.8%) patients had low-risk HPV, and 15 (4%) tested negative. HPV-16 variants were determined in 130 HPV-16 positive specimens, including 74 HSIL and 46 carcinoma specimens. In HSIL specimens, 41 distinct variants were found, 98.6% belonging to the European branch and 1.4% belonging to the African branch. In cervical carcinoma specimens, 95% isolates grouped in 41 variants belonging to the European branch, one isolate (2.5%) belonged to the North American, and one (2.5%) to the Asian-American branch.ConclusionHPV-16, mainly belonging to the European branch, was the most frequent HPV genotype in women from Croatia with histologically confirmed HSIL and cervical cancer.
| S-EPMC7976879 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Prevalence of different HPV genotypes is changing after HPV vaccination. The associated risks are needed for optimizing cervical cancer screening.To estimate HPV type-specific prevalence, odds ratio (OR), and positive predictive value (PPV) for cervical cytological abnormalities, we determined 41 different HPV genotypes in cervical samples from a population-based sample of 8351 women aged 18-51 years before HPV vaccination era (V501-033; NCT01077856).Prevalence of HPV16 was 4.9% (95% CI: 4.4-5.5) with the PPV for high-grade cytology 11.2%, and OR 11.9 (95% CI: 8.5-16.5). Carcinogenic HPVs included in the nonavalent vaccine (HPV16,18,31,33,45,52,58) had a population prevalence of 14.4% (95% CI: 13.5-15.4), with PPV of 8.0% (95% CI: 6.8-9.3) and OR 23.7 (95% CI: 16.0-63.5) for high-grade cytology. HPV types currently included in most screening tests, but not vaccinated against (HPV35,39,51,56,59,66,68) had a joint prevalence of 8.5% (95% CI: 7.8-9.2) with PPV of 4.4% (95% CI: 3.3-5.7) and OR of 2.9 (95% CI: 2.0-4.0) for high-grade cytology. The other 27 non-carcinogenic genotypes had a prevalence of 11.8%, PPV of 2.9% (95% CI:2.1-3.9), and OR 1.5 (95% CI: 1.1-2.2.) for high-grade cytology.These results suggest that HPV screening tests in the post-vaccination era might perform better if restricted to the HPV types in the nonavalent vaccine and screening for all 14 HPV types might result in suboptimal balance of harms and benefits.
| S-EPMC8018444 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) impact has prolonged survival of people living with HIV. We evaluated HIV disease progression among ART patients using routinely collected patient-level data between 2004 and 2017 in Zimbabwe. Methods: We partitioned HIV disease progression into four transient CD4 cell counts states: state 1 (CD4 ≥ 500 cells/μl), state 2 (350 cells/μl ≤ CD4 < 500 cells/μl), state 3 (200 cells/μl ≤ CD4 < 350 cells/μl), state 4 (CD4 < 200 cells/μl), and the absorbing state death (state 5). We proposed a semiparametric time-homogenous multistate Markov model to estimate bidirectional transition rates. Covariate effects (age, gender, ART initiation period, and health facility level) on the transition rates were assessed. Results: We analyzed 204,289 clinic visits by 63,422 patients. There were 24,325 (38.4%) patients in state 4 (CD4 < 200) at ART initiation, and 7,995 (12.6%) deaths occurred by December 2017. The overall mortality rate was 3.9 per 100 person-years. The highest mortality rate of 5.7 per 100 person-years (4,541 deaths) was from state 4 (CD4 < 200) compared to other states. Mortality rates decreased with increase in time since ART initiation. Health facility type was the strongest predictor for immune recovery. Provincial or central hospital patients showed a diminishing dose-response effect on immune recovery by state from a hazard ratio (HR) of 8.30 [95% confidence interval (95% CI), 6.64-10.36] (state 4 to 3) to HR of 3.12 (95% CI, 2.54-4.36) (state 2 to 1) compared to primary healthcare facilities. Immune system for male patients was more likely to deteriorate, and they had a 32% increased mortality risk (HR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.23-1.42) compared to female patients. Elderly patients (45+ years) were more likely to immune deteriorate compared to 25-34 years age group: HR, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.18-1.54; HR, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.34-1.81 and HR, 1.53; 95% CI, 1.32-1.79 for states 1 to 2, state 2 to 3, and states 3 to 4, respectively. Conclusion: Immune recovery was pronounced among provincial or central hospitals. Male patients with lower CD4 cell counts were at a higher risk of immune deterioration and mortality, while elderly patients were more likely to immune deteriorate. Early therapeutic interventions when the immune system is relatively stable across gender and age may contain mortality and increase survival outcomes. Interventions which strengthen ART services in primary healthcare facilities are essential.
| S-EPMC6873884 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND: Human Papillomavirus (HPV) high-risk (HR) types are the causal factor for cervical cancer and premalignant dysplasia. Data on frequency of HPV types provide a basis to design and evaluate HPV prevention programs. Taking into account the heterogeneity of HPV types across and within populations this study aims to access the HPV frequency in Brazilian women. RESULTS: We identified 24 different types of HPV, including a Betapapillomavirus and a likely new type, previously reported, from 132 women positive for the virus analysed by Hybrid Capture II assay. These women were infected by a single or multiple HPV types and 142 HPV strains were identified. HR types were found in 75% of women and HPV types 16, 18, 45, 58, and 66 had the highest frequency. Significant differences in frequency of HR HPV types were found for presence of cervical lesions, and for different HPV species and women age. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with previous studies in Brazil, our data indicated differences in frequency and HPV type diversity, a significant association of other HR-types but HPV16 and 18 and cervical lesions, and a trend for distinct distribution of HPV types by age.
| S-EPMC3024957 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundHigh-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV) infection is established as the major cause of invasive cervical cancer (ICC). However, whether hrHPV status in the tumor is associated with subsequent prognosis of ICC is controversial. We aim to evaluate the association between tumor hrHPV status and ICC prognosis using national registers and comprehensive human papillomavirus (HPV) genotyping.Methods and findingsIn this nationwide population-based cohort study, we identified all ICC diagnosed in Sweden during the years 2002-2011 (4,254 confirmed cases), requested all archival formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded blocks, and performed HPV genotyping. Twenty out of 25 pathology biobanks agreed to the study, yielding a total of 2,845 confirmed cases with valid HPV results. Cases were prospectively followed up from date of cancer diagnosis to 31 December 2015, migration from Sweden, or death, whichever occurred first. The main exposure was tumor hrHPV status classified as hrHPV-positive and hrHPV-negative. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality by 31 December 2015. Five-year relative survival ratios (RSRs) were calculated, and excess hazard ratios (EHRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using Poisson regression, adjusting for education, time since cancer diagnosis, and clinical factors including age at cancer diagnosis and International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) stage. Of the 2,845 included cases, hrHPV was detected in 2,293 (80.6%), and we observed 1,131 (39.8%) deaths during an average of 6.2 years follow-up. The majority of ICC cases were diagnosed at age 30-59 years (57.5%) and classified as stage IB (40.7%). hrHPV positivity was significantly associated with screen-detected tumors, young age, high education level, and early stage at diagnosis (p < 0.001). The 5-year RSR compared to the general female population was 0.74 (95% CI 0.72-0.76) for hrHPV-positive cases and 0.54 (95% CI 0.50-0.59) for hrHPV-negative cases, yielding a crude EHR of 0.45 (95% CI 0.38-0.52) and an adjusted EHR of 0.61 (95% CI 0.52-0.71). Risk of all-cause mortality as measured by EHR was consistently and statistically significantly lower for cases with hrHPV-positive tumors for each age group above 29 years and each FIGO stage above IA. The difference in prognosis by hrHPV status was highly robust, regardless of the clinical, histological, and educational characteristics of the cases. The main limitation was that, except for education, we were not able to adjust for lifestyle factors or other unmeasured confounders.ConclusionsIn this study, women with hrHPV-positive cervical tumors had a substantially better prognosis than women with hrHPV-negative tumors. hrHPV appears to be a biomarker for better prognosis in cervical cancer independent of age, FIGO stage, and histological type, extending information from already established prognostic factors. The underlying biological mechanisms relating lack of detectable tumor hrHPV to considerably worse prognosis are not known and should be further investigated.
| S-EPMC6166926 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND Cervical cancer is one of the most common malignances among women globally. This study aimed to construct a novel immune-related signature to predict the prognosis and immune infiltration of cervical cancer. MATERIAL AND METHODS Transcriptomic profiles and corresponding clinical information of cervical cancer patients were obtained from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database and GEO database. The hub immune-related genes were screened and selected using Cox regression analysis and LASSO regression analysis. A novel signature was established based on the expression levels and corresponding coefficients of the selected hub immune-related genes. Kaplan-Meier survival curve and ROC curve illustrated the prognostic value of this novel signature in cervical cancer. The predictive accuracy and stability of this novel signature were confirmed in the validation cohort, internal testing set and external testing set. Then, a nomogram was constructed to predict individual survival probability of cervical cancer patient. The association between the risk scores of novel signature and immune infiltration was investigated through single-sample gene set enrichment analysis (ssGSEA). RESULTS Ten hub immune-related genes (TFRC, SPP1, CAMP, CSF2, TUBB3, ZAP70, CHIT1, LEPR, DLL4, and DES) were selected to construct a novel signature. The risk score of this novel signature could be an independent prognostic factor in cervical cancer, which divided patients into high-risk and low-risk groups. The patients in high-risk groups showed significantly worse overall survival rates than those in low-risk groups in all training and validation cohorts (all P<0.05). A nomogram model was constructed based on the risk score of the novel signature and other clinical characteristics, which achieved the highest clinical net benefit across the entire range of reasonable threshold probabilities (concordance index=0.813). Furthermore, gene enrichment analysis revealed that the novel signature was closely related with immunology. The novel signature was negatively correlated with the infiltration of most immune cell types, especially T cell subsets (P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS The novel signature could comprehensively predict the prognosis and immune infiltration of cervical cancer. It may provide new insights for the precise treatment in cervical cancer.
| S-EPMC10066621 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveDNA methylation has been shown to be a potential biomarker for early cancer detection. The aim of this study was to evaluate DNA methylation profiles according to liquid-based Pap (LBP) test results and to assess their diagnostic value in a Korean population.MethodsA total of 205 patients with various Papanicolaou test results were enrolled to this study (negative, 26; atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance, 39; low grade squamous intraepithelial lesion, 44; high grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (HSIL), 48; and cancer, 48). DNA methylation analysis of four genes, ADCYAP1, PAX1, MAL, and CADM1, was performed on residual cervical cells from LBP samples using a quantitative bisulfite pyrosequencing method. To evaluate the diagnostic performance of the four methylated genes for cancer detection, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were drawn. Sensitivities and specificities were also tested at cutoffs determined from the ROC curves.ResultsCervical cancer cells showed dramatically increased methylation levels for the four genes analyzed. ADCYAP1 and PAX1 also trended toward elevated methylation levels in HSIL samples, although the levels were much lower than those in cancer cells. The sensitivities of methylated ADCYAP1, PAX1, MAL, and CADM1 for the detection of cancer were 79.2%, 75.0%, 70.8%, and 52.1%, and the specificities were 92.0%, 94.0%, 94.7%, and 94.0%, respectively. Methylated ADCYAP1 and PAX1 demonstrated relatively better discriminatory ability than did methylated MAL and CADM1 (area under the curves 0.911 and 0.916 vs. 0.854 and 0.756, respectively).ConclusionDNA methylation status, especially in the ADCYAP1 and PAX1 genes, showed relatively good specificity, ranging from 90% to 94%. The possible additive and complementary roles of DNA methylation testing with respect to conventional cervical cancer screening programs will need to be validated in prospective population-based studies.
| S-EPMC4717219 | biostudies-literature